NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	119		Excitement	4.9 [823]		MVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): +23.3%
Boston Celtics	122		Comeback	1.1 [1216]		LVP	Kristaps Porzingis (BOS): -4.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Portis	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1	0.08	0.05	0.02	20	59%	0.14	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.07
Patrick Beverley	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.01	5	75%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Khris Middleton	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	0.01	0.05	11	81%	0.10	4	-0.04	5	80%	-0.01
Damian Lillard	0.05	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,0,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05	0.14	-0.02	0.07	21	70%	0.13	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Malik Beasley	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	8	37%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	5	70%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	0.00	0.05	4	87%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
AJ Green	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	-0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	5	67%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jayson Tatum	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.14	0.08	-0.01	19	65%	0.28	2	-0.04	10	90%	0.03
Payton Pritchard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.16	0.01	0.01	11	86%	0.17	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14	0.14	0.14	0.01	0.00	17	62%	0.14	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	-0.00	15	52%	0.12	1	-0.02	10	70%	-0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	3	133%	0.09	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Svi Mykhailiuk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Xavier Tillman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kristaps Porzingis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	16	45%	-0.00	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	3.8	30.2	15.8	26.6	3.4	38.7	144.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +13.0%

BOS +12.0%

BOS +8.3%

BOS +12.3%

BOS +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	BOS	NBA	MIL	BOS	NBA
this game	13.8	16.2	14.5	124.0	127.1	113.9
season	14.3	14.9		117.0	120.7
opponent	14.7	14.3		109.6	114.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.5	14.0	14.9	12.7	13.8
BOS	13.1	16.7	16.4	19.2	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
AJ Green	13	13	0.18	-0.68	0.85	-0.23	14	-17	31	14.6	13.6	0.98	22.7	15.2	7.48
Jae Crowder	32	33	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-6	9	13.5	13.9	-0.45	15.1	16.8	-1.73
Pat Connaughton	45	44	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.47	11	-14	25	14.5	13.1	1.39	18.6	14.2	4.36
Damian Lillard	74	75	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.28	1	-4	5	13.3	15.5	-2.24	15.2	19.8	-4.52
Danilo Gallinari	36	33	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.03	-8	5	-13	15.2	12.9	2.23	18.1	15.3	2.84
Brook Lopez	46	48	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.09	-7	4	-11	12.8	14.6	-1.81	14.0	18.5	-4.46
Malik Beasley	60	62	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.27	-2	-1	-1	12.7	15.6	-2.94	14.7	18.9	-4.20
Patrick Beverley	42	40	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.03	-13	10	-23	15.5	12.4	3.03	17.4	15.4	2.05
Khris Middleton	69	69	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.22	-9	6	-15	13.4	14.7	-1.30	15.8	17.2	-1.38
Bobby Portis	63	63	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.36	-5	2	-7	14.0	13.3	0.76	16.9	15.0	1.87

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	78	78	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.17	15	-12	27	15.4	19.9	-4.57	13.8	13.6	0.20
Jayson Tatum	80	80	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.39	2	1	1	16.0	17.2	-1.22	13.6	14.6	-0.95
Payton Pritchard	59	61	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.27	2	1	1	17.1	14.8	2.31	14.2	13.1	1.12
Jaylen Brown	76	75	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.39	-3	6	-9	15.8	17.9	-2.17	13.4	15.1	-1.76
Derrick White	75	75	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.45	-7	10	-17	16.2	16.4	-0.26	13.6	14.3	-0.66
Luke Kornet	17	17	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.01	8	-5	13	18.4	15.8	2.58	15.4	13.4	1.99
Svi Mykhailiuk	9	10	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.10	10	-7	17	16.1	16.2	-0.13	18.3	13.2	5.06
Kristaps Porzingis	59	57	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.36	-9	12	-21	15.9	16.7	-0.77	13.0	14.9	-1.94
Xavier Tillman	27	27	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.14	-3	6	-9	18.1	15.5	2.67	13.6	13.8	-0.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.75,0.83,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.77,0.66,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.92,0.85,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.99,0.97,0.89,0.9,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 79, CLE 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.68,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.89,0.87,0.84,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.87,0.85,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
IND 110, WAS 117	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
ORL 95, MIA 121	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.82,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.8,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.79,0.81,0.79,0.87,0.83,0.89,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.97,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%