NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	104		Excitement	7.9 [282]		MVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): +51.6%
Detroit Pistons	101		Comeback	1.9 [680]		LVP	Patty Mills (MIA): -10.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0.52	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.52	0.07	0.44	-0.00	13	71%	0.58	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Duncan Robinson	0.35	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.33,0.33,0.56,0.56,0.35	0.24	0.10	-0.01	15	91%	0.60	3	-0.25	3	100%	0.02
Terry Rozier	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.04	-0.01	0.00	-0.05	20	42%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Delon Wright	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	7	43%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	14	47%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Thomas Bryant	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Caleb Martin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	9	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Haywood Highsmith	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	6	21%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Patty Mills	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.04	0.02	4	11%	-0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Isaiah Stewart	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.09	0.00	9	67%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.06	0.01	14	58%	0.13	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Cade Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.06	-0.06	0.10	-0.02	19	45%	0.11	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Umude	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	-0.02	0.01	5	90%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Simone Fontecchio	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.03	0.00	12	52%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Marcus Sasser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	70%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Wiseman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.06	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.04
Jalen Duren	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	10	46%	0.04	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Jaden Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	7	62%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.4	23.6	15.4	24.6	2.4	32.8	123.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +44.5%

DET -2.3%

MIA +26.9%

DET -17.7%

DET -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	15.8	14.2	14.5	109.5	104.1	113.9
season	14.9	14.2		112.3	108.4
opponent	14.3	14.8		117.6	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.2	14.5	14.8	18.9	15.8
DET	14.2	16.1	14.0	12.7	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Rozier	71	72	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.29	20	-17	37	15.8	15.7	0.08	14.0	14.9	-0.85
Duncan Robinson	70	73	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.29	12	-9	21	15.1	17.7	-2.65	14.4	13.7	0.66
Bam Adebayo	74	77	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.42	5	-2	7	16.7	12.3	4.41	13.7	16.4	-2.71
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	68	69	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.31	6	-3	9	16.6	13.7	2.83	14.1	14.5	-0.41
Haywood Highsmith	53	52	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.04	4	-1	5	14.6	17.3	-2.68	14.5	14.0	0.46
Delon Wright	42	42	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.15	-2	5	-7	14.5	16.8	-2.32	14.7	13.9	0.82
Caleb Martin	58	62	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.48	-15	18	-33	16.7	14.4	2.32	14.0	14.6	-0.60
Thomas Bryant	21	20	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	5	-7	12.3	16.7	-4.41	16.4	13.7	2.71
Patty Mills	18	18	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	0.10	-13	16	-29	18.9	15.0	3.92	13.9	14.3	-0.37

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stanley Umude	38	36	0.46	-0.96	1.42	-0.19	22	-25	47	13.8	14.5	-0.71	16.6	15.3	1.36
James Wiseman	31	31	0.26	-0.76	1.03	-0.09	12	-15	27	15.0	13.9	1.15	16.1	15.6	0.44
Marcus Sasser	34	35	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.06	6	-9	15	15.5	13.6	1.93	15.4	16.0	-0.58
Evan Fournier	63	60	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.48	12	-15	27	14.2	14.4	-0.25	16.5	14.5	1.94
Jaden Ivey	48	48	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.02	-6	3	-9	15.0	13.6	1.41	15.4	16.1	-0.71
Simone Fontecchio	72	70	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.32	-5	2	-7	13.7	15.8	-2.04	15.5	16.4	-0.91
Cade Cunningham	66	64	-0.77	0.27	-1.03	-0.33	-15	12	-27	13.9	15.0	-1.15	15.6	16.1	-0.44
Jalen Duren	61	60	-0.83	0.33	-1.16	-0.33	-17	14	-31	14.1	14.4	-0.27	15.1	16.9	-1.86
Isaiah Stewart	72	71	-1.00	0.50	-1.50	-0.29	-24	21	-45	14.1	14.7	-0.58	16.0	15.2	0.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.54,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.28,0.38,0.3,0.18,0.14,0.27,0.31,0.39,0.4,0.24,0.11,0.09,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 80, CHA 74	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.56,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.16,0.23,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.23,0.26,0.16,0.22,0.2,0.07,0.02,0.02,0	92.2%
GSW 96, BOS 95	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.41,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.16,0.2,0.15,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.21,0.22,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.33,0.24,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.19,0.05,0.15,0.16,0	91.7%
NYK 75, ORL 68	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.2,0.23,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.12,0.11,0.16,0.17,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.02,0,0	91.5%