NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	108		Excitement	7.8 [302]		MVP	Terry Rozier (MIA): +30.0%
Dallas Mavericks	114		Comeback	2.9 [605]		LVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): -20.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Rozier	0.30	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.32,0.29,0.3	0.21	0.12	0.03	17	75%	0.30	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.11	0.03	0.00	7	81%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Duncan Robinson	0.14	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.17	-0.03	0.00	10	95%	0.15	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.00	9	62%	0.10	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Thomas Bryant	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.06,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.03	-0.00	12	54%	0.12	6	-0.16	2	50%	-0.01
Nikola Jovic	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	6	33%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.21	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.22,-0.21	-0.06	-0.15	-0.01	14	39%	-0.18	1	-0.03	8	50%	-0.05

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dante Exum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.27	0.27	0.11	0.14	-0.01	5	87%	0.27	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.03
Luka Doncic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.2,0.12,0.12,0.27,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.15	0.06	0.01	24	67%	0.35	4	-0.15	4	100%	0.03
Daniel Gafford	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.03	0.01	5	86%	0.12	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Kyrie Irving	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	19	57%	0.15	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Dereck Lively II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.03	0.01	11	42%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Josh Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	17%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Washington	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	12	38%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.8	33.2	15.7	31.1	2.7	32.6	142.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +18.5%

DAL +12.7%

DAL +20.6%

MIA -1.7%

MIA -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DAL	NBA	MIA	DAL	NBA
this game	16.0	14.0	14.5	113.7	117.5	113.9
season	14.9	14.2		112.3	116.2
opponent	14.4	14.8		114.1	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.8	16.0	17.3	16.2	16.0
DAL	14.0	12.3	13.4	16.5	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	51	53	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.11	2	-8	10	17.3	14.6	2.66	14.5	13.3	1.25
Thomas Bryant	19	20	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.05	-1	-5	4	18.8	15.3	3.50	14.1	13.9	0.15
Haywood Highsmith	17	18	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.11	-4	-2	-2	16.1	16.0	0.02	12.7	14.3	-1.54
Nikola Jovic	35	34	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-6	6	14.9	16.7	-1.79	13.8	14.1	-0.29
Jimmy Butler	73	76	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.30	1	-7	8	16.1	15.8	0.29	14.1	13.7	0.40
Terry Rozier	80	79	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.36	-1	-5	4	15.6	18.3	-2.64	14.4	12.0	2.43
Bam Adebayo	76	77	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.37	-5	-1	-4	15.3	18.8	-3.50	13.9	14.1	-0.15
Caleb Martin	62	64	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.32	-11	5	-16	17.0	14.2	2.76	14.0	13.9	0.06
Duncan Robinson	62	64	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.50	-11	5	-16	15.2	17.7	-2.54	13.3	15.3	-2.05

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maxi Kleber	47	45	0.93	-0.43	1.37	0.46	16	-10	26	12.9	15.0	-2.19	15.8	16.2	-0.38
Dante Exum	33	33	0.89	-0.39	1.29	0.42	16	-10	26	14.6	13.7	0.90	17.3	15.4	1.89
Dereck Lively II	42	42	0.88	-0.38	1.25	0.38	17	-11	28	14.5	13.6	0.96	17.9	14.5	3.38
Luka Doncic	81	80	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.31	11	-5	16	13.6	15.8	-2.20	16.0	16.3	-0.35
Tim Hardaway Jr.	43	43	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.08	7	-1	8	12.6	15.1	-2.47	16.0	16.1	-0.12
Kyrie Irving	76	73	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.27	-7	13	-20	14.1	13.5	0.64	15.2	18.9	-3.73
Derrick Jones Jr.	26	24	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.05	-6	12	-18	14.6	13.7	0.87	14.1	16.7	-2.62
Josh Green	34	33	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	-0.17	-3	9	-12	15.1	13.4	1.66	18.1	14.9	3.19
P.J. Washington	60	58	-0.33	0.83	-1.17	-0.16	-6	12	-18	13.9	14.1	-0.25	15.7	16.6	-0.99
Daniel Gafford	43	44	-0.47	0.97	-1.44	-0.03	-15	21	-36	14.9	13.2	1.71	15.1	16.8	-1.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.6,0.69,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.63,0.77,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 111, SEA 118	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.45,0.57,0.61,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.78,0.74,0.62,0.71,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.61,0.78,0.84,0.83,1	93.3%
NOP 99, GSW 108	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.28,0.32,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.53,0.59,0.49,0.33,0.47,0.78,0.85,1,1	91.7%
PHI 89, ORL 95	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.65,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.62,0.66,0.8,0.8,0.68,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.62,0.79,0.93,0.99,1	90.7%