NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	96		Excitement	9.1 [138]		MVP	Moritz Wagner (ORL): +27.2%
Miami Heat	99		Comeback	2.9 [400]		LVP	Paolo Banchero (ORL): -37.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Moritz Wagner	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.15	0.12	-0.01	9	83%	0.29	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.03
Chuma Okeke	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.02	0.03	10	80%	0.15	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joe Ingles	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.05	-0.01	10	67%	0.14	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.04
Goga Bitadze	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Caleb Houstan	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.04	-0.00	9	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Black	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Markelle Fultz	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Jalen Suggs	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevelin Queen	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cole Anthony	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	8	28%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Paolo Banchero	-0.37	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.37	-0.10	-0.26	0.01	26	43%	-0.22	4	-0.15	6	67%	-0.05

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.18,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.07	0.19	-0.00	6	69%	0.26	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.03	0.01	19	59%	0.19	3	-0.12	1	100%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.05	-0.03	0.08	0.00	17	52%	0.20	4	-0.14	6	83%	-0.01
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	58%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.04
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	-0.01	6	69%	0.08	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	38%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.06	0.01	16	54%	0.04	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.03
Nikola Jovic	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.03	0.01	8	22%	-0.10	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.1	1.8	24.1	14.8	30.7	2.0	41.2	145.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +27.8%

MIA +12.5%

ORL -16.5%

ORL -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.5	16.1	14.5	104.3	110.0	113.9
season	15.1	14.9		111.8	112.3
opponent	14.8	14.4		111.0	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.0	15.2	16.6	15.4	15.5
MIA	15.0	15.4	16.9	17.4	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trevelin Queen	35	33	0.27	-0.77	1.04	0.13	5	-8	13	14.8	16.0	-1.18	17.7	15.2	2.44
Anthony Black	20	18	0.12	-0.62	0.75	0.07	2	-5	7	13.1	16.2	-3.04	14.5	16.5	-2.03
Paolo Banchero	67	66	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.34	10	-13	23	15.7	15.2	0.46	16.8	14.2	2.55
Joe Ingles	40	40	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-5	7	15.8	15.3	0.47	15.7	16.4	-0.72
Caleb Houstan	59	58	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.22	2	-5	7	16.1	14.5	1.59	16.5	15.4	1.11
Markelle Fultz	33	32	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.01	-6	3	-9	14.8	15.9	-1.11	16.0	16.2	-0.24
Moritz Wagner	57	56	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.45	7	-10	17	14.4	17.3	-2.92	15.9	16.4	-0.47
Goga Bitadze	35	34	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.04	-10	7	-17	17.3	14.4	2.92	16.4	15.9	0.47
Cole Anthony	53	53	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.44	4	-7	11	15.4	15.7	-0.37	16.0	16.2	-0.21
Jalen Suggs	25	25	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.16	-11	8	-19	17.1	15.0	2.12	16.0	16.2	-0.22
Chuma Okeke	56	56	-0.93	0.43	-1.35	-0.43	-17	14	-31	16.0	14.9	1.10	15.8	16.6	-0.84

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	72	75	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.41	17	-14	31	16.2	15.6	0.64	15.9	14.0	1.88
Caleb Martin	46	47	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.41	3	0	3	15.9	16.3	-0.43	14.5	16.6	-2.09
Duncan Robinson	76	78	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.04	13	-10	23	16.2	15.5	0.74	15.9	13.6	2.31
Josh Richardson	50	50	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.48	-5	8	-13	15.6	16.8	-1.22	14.5	16.8	-2.35
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	67	69	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.41	-4	7	-11	16.4	15.2	1.22	16.2	13.5	2.74
Haywood Highsmith	59	60	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.28	-5	8	-13	16.2	16.0	0.14	15.8	14.9	0.91
Kevin Love	34	34	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.04	-3	6	-9	15.2	16.7	-1.47	13.9	16.5	-2.52
Nikola Jovic	46	47	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.02	-1	4	-5	16.7	15.5	1.17	16.3	14.7	1.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.5,0.48,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.61,0.59,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.62,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.79,0.71,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.78,0.81,0.74,0.78,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 81, CHI 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.71,0.66,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.72,0.68,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.84,0.78,0.84,1	93.0%
DET 92, BOS 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.63,0.55,0.7,0.67,0.77,0.72,0.69,0.53,0.63,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.71,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.89,0.78,0.86,0.96,1	92.6%
PHI 84, ORL 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.71,0.58,0.47,0.54,0.67,0.85,0.84,0.77,0.83,1	92.3%