NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	113		Excitement	8.0 [268]		MVP	Duncan Robinson (MIA): +42.7%
Miami Heat	122		Comeback	4.7 [279]		LVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): -12.1%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clint Capela	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.04	-0.02	3	100%	0.12	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dejounte Murray	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.01	20	56%	0.12	2	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Onyeka Okongwu	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.00	7	56%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Saddiq Bey	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.01	14	53%	0.10	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Wesley Matthews	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trae Young	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.07	22	64%	0.17	6	-0.19	3	100%	0.03
Patty Mills	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Garrison Mathews	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bogdan Bogdanovic	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.03	-0.10	-0.02	24	46%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.43	0.43	0.23	0.25	0.05	11	93%	0.47	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.04
Tyler Herro	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.04	-0.00	21	68%	0.28	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.01	-0.04	9	58%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.00	4	50%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	6	42%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.04	0.00	14	58%	0.10	2	-0.08	5	80%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	2	75%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	5	27%	-0.04	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	14	47%	0.05	6	-0.17	10	80%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.4	25.1	0.3	31.2	2.0	36.0	123.4
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +26.8%

MIA +27.5%

MIA +5.7%

ATL -12.6%

MIA +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	13.9	14.4	14.5	111.9	119.6	113.9
season	14.2	14.9		115.7	112.3
opponent	14.8	14.3		111.0	118.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.6	13.7	14.5	14.0	13.9
MIA	15.2	15.7	13.2	13.7	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Garrison Mathews	39	38	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.09	-2	-7	5	15.4	13.0	2.44	14.6	14.3	0.32
Clint Capela	56	59	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.15	6	-15	21	13.7	14.2	-0.51	15.0	13.6	1.43
Wesley Matthews	14	14	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	-6	3	12.2	14.2	-2.00	14.2	14.5	-0.25
Patty Mills	25	27	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-7	5	14.3	13.8	0.50	13.9	14.6	-0.79
Dejounte Murray	73	74	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-6	3	13.9	14.0	-0.08	14.5	14.2	0.30
Saddiq Bey	86	84	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.09	-12	3	-15	14.0	13.4	0.63	14.4	14.7	-0.35
Trae Young	84	84	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.12	-11	2	-13	14.0	13.5	0.57	14.2	15.4	-1.23
Onyeka Okongwu	54	54	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.19	-10	1	-11	13.9	13.9	0.01	14.3	14.6	-0.29
Bogdan Bogdanovic	74	76	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.39	-8	-1	-7	13.3	15.6	-2.31	14.4	14.4	0.01

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duncan Robinson	51	53	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.25	14	-5	19	14.9	14.0	0.86	13.7	14.2	-0.51
Bam Adebayo	82	80	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.14	10	-1	11	14.1	15.8	-1.76	14.4	12.3	2.03
Tyler Herro	74	74	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.16	7	2	5	14.4	14.6	-0.29	13.5	15.0	-1.50
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	78	79	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	-2	13	14.5	14.3	0.13	14.3	12.5	1.78
Kyle Lowry	48	44	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.07	9	0	9	13.7	15.1	-1.44	14.5	13.5	0.99
Josh Richardson	61	60	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.25	0	9	-9	14.7	14.0	0.72	14.0	13.9	0.06
Caleb Martin	76	73	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.21	-1	10	-11	14.4	14.6	-0.20	14.3	13.1	1.15
Kevin Love	20	21	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.09	-1	10	-11	15.8	14.1	1.76	12.3	14.4	-2.03
Haywood Highsmith	20	21	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.00	-4	13	-17	14.6	14.4	0.27	12.1	14.4	-2.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.32,0.18,0.25,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.95,0.89,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 89, LAL 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.61,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.66,0.71,0.64,0.81,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.84,0.9,0.98,1	92.0%
MIL 109, UTA 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.68,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.77,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	91.4%
MIA 65, NYK 72	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.83,0.76,0.66,0.71,0.84,0.86,0.92,1	91.4%