NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	108		Excitement	9.1 [137]		MVP	Kristaps Porzingis (BOS): +64.1%
New York Knicks	104		Comeback	7.7 [223]		LVP	Jalen Brunson (NYK): -25.4%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kristaps Porzingis	0.64	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.35,0.56,0.64	0.20	0.47	0.02	15	75%	0.67	1	-0.03	10	90%	0.15
Jayson Tatum	0.24	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.24	0.12	0.10	-0.01	22	68%	0.36	4	-0.13	6	83%	0.10
Derrick White	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.00	6	75%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06	-0.01	0.06	-0.00	4	40%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Al Horford	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.00	4	100%	0.13	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	10	45%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Sam Hauser	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	11	42%	0.04	2	-0.16	4	75%	0.02

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Immanuel Quickley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.3	0.30	0.17	0.13	0.00	11	86%	0.36	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Quentin Grimes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.07	0.00	7	73%	0.17	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Josh Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.06	0.00	4	70%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.05	-0.01	4	70%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Julius Randle	0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.13,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01	0.01	-0.11	0.07	-0.05	22	29%	0.01	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.09
RJ Barrett	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.04	0.01	20	51%	0.03	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.02
Donte DiVincenzo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mitchell Robinson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.09	0.01	4	20%	-0.10	1	-0.06	2	0%	-0.04
Jalen Brunson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.06,-0.13,-0.24,-0.25	-0.25	-0.11	-0.17	-0.03	21	35%	-0.20	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	3.3	27.0	15.0	36.5	2.8	46.4	159.4
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +35.9%

BOS +52.0%

NYK -13.7%

NYK -15.2%

NYK -9.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	NYK	NBA	BOS	NYK	NBA
this game	13.9	15.5	14.5	109.1	107.2	113.9
season	14.8	15.6		121.3	116.8
opponent	14.4	14.7		112.5	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.8	14.8	12.8	14.2	13.9
NYK	15.6	15.2	15.4	15.9	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick White	65	66	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.58	7	-3	10	13.1	15.4	-2.30	15.9	14.7	1.12
Jaylen Brown	78	78	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.52	7	-3	10	13.7	14.8	-1.10	15.7	14.6	1.15
Kristaps Porzingis	80	77	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.27	13	-9	22	13.6	15.2	-1.56	15.7	14.9	0.76
Jrue Holiday	71	69	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.31	3	1	2	13.4	15.2	-1.88	16.0	14.2	1.81
Jayson Tatum	82	78	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.24	0	4	-4	13.5	15.9	-2.39	15.5	15.6	-0.16
Sam Hauser	28	26	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.04	5	-1	6	15.1	13.4	1.68	15.1	15.6	-0.53
Luke Kornet	16	16	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.11	-1	5	-6	15.8	13.5	2.28	15.3	15.5	-0.23
Al Horford	52	52	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	-0.06	-6	10	-16	14.8	12.9	2.00	14.9	16.2	-1.38
Payton Pritchard	23	24	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.07	-8	12	-20	16.1	13.2	2.91	13.6	16.1	-2.55

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donte DiVincenzo	32	32	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.05	4	-8	12	14.2	16.1	-1.92	15.3	13.2	2.13
Mitchell Robinson	43	46	0.15	-0.65	0.81	0.15	0	-4	4	15.1	15.8	-0.70	14.7	13.2	1.41
Quentin Grimes	48	51	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.17	-1	-3	2	16.2	14.8	1.43	12.4	15.5	-3.11
Josh Hart	45	45	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.05	-1	-3	2	15.2	15.7	-0.53	14.6	13.3	1.37
RJ Barrett	75	76	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.53	5	-9	14	14.8	17.8	-2.93	14.3	12.5	1.85
Immanuel Quickley	55	55	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.40	-3	-1	-2	15.3	15.8	-0.45	14.9	12.6	2.31
Isaiah Hartenstein	54	53	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.52	-4	0	-4	15.8	15.1	0.70	13.2	14.7	-1.41
Jalen Brunson	65	67	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.43	-8	4	-12	16.1	14.2	1.92	13.2	15.3	-2.13
Julius Randle	68	70	-0.81	0.31	-1.13	-0.46	-12	8	-20	16.1	14.2	1.90	13.2	15.5	-2.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.24,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.37,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.35,0.48,0.45,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.33,0.48,0.53,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.85,0.84,0.57,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 89, PHI 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.27,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.21,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.15,0.24,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.21,0.12,0.15,0.1,0.16,0.3,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.54,0.69,0.83,0.69,0.15,0	92.2%
SEA 97, MEM 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.25,0.3,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.21,0.16,0.22,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.38,0.32,0.43,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.57,0.08,0	90.1%
SAC 88, SAS 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.32,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.19,0.23,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.3,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.61,0.81,0.85,0.77,0.42,0	89.8%