NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	127		Excitement	9.6 [117]		MVP	Jonathan Kuminga (GSW): +31.0%
Dallas Mavericks	125		Comeback	1.9 [670]		LVP	Luka Doncic (DAL): -25.2%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonathan Kuminga	0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.19	0.13	0.01	11	92%	0.33	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.04
JaMychal Green	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.08	0.09	0.00	5	82%	0.17	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Draymond Green	0.17	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.17,0.17	0.03	0.13	-0.01	10	67%	0.26	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.02
Anthony Lamb	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.07	-0.01	7	60%	0.15	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Jordan Poole	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	13	52%	0.11	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Stephen Curry	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.09	0.01	0.07	0.00	18	56%	0.22	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Kevon Looney	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.02	5	75%	0.08	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Moses Moody	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Donte DiVincenzo	-0.06	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06	0.00	-0.04	0.02	10	64%	0.05	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Klay Thompson	-0.09	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	0.02	-0.10	0.02	9	50%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaden Hardy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.28,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.29,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.20	0.08	-0.01	18	71%	0.28	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.06
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.15	0.08	0.04	8	94%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Wood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.05	-0.01	10	61%	0.18	2	-0.07	11	82%	0.04
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.01	3	57%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Dwight Powell	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.02	9	65%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Davis Bertans	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	6	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Green	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.04	-0.07	0.02	8	67%	0.11	2	-0.16	2	100%	0.01
Luka Doncic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.25	-0.25	-0.05	-0.19	0.01	27	47%	-0.05	5	-0.21	10	60%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	3.3	34.5	14.8	28.2	3.4	37.3	149.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +40.9%

GSW +13.1%

DAL -5.7%

GSW +3.4%

DAL -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DAL	NBA	GSW	DAL	NBA
this game	13.3	15.6	14.4	128.3	125.0	113.4
season	13.9	15.2		114.1	115.5
opponent	14.3	14.1		115.8	112.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.4	12.9	12.7	14.3	13.3
DAL	15.4	15.3	16.6	15.1	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Curry	72	74	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.46	10	-8	18	13.2	13.6	-0.41	15.4	16.0	-0.59
Draymond Green	49	50	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.56	3	-1	4	13.6	13.1	0.43	16.9	14.3	2.60
Donte DiVincenzo	51	52	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.40	7	-5	12	12.7	14.0	-1.21	15.5	15.7	-0.13
Jonathan Kuminga	63	64	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.34	2	0	2	13.4	13.2	0.13	15.0	16.7	-1.80
Klay Thompson	74	72	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.38	-3	5	-8	13.6	12.7	0.87	14.8	17.7	-2.94
Moses Moody	13	15	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	-2	6	10.9	13.7	-2.77	17.7	15.2	2.43
Kevon Looney	60	59	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.04	0	2	-2	12.9	13.9	-1.02	15.5	15.8	-0.35
Jordan Poole	54	53	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.01	-1	3	-4	13.6	13.0	0.57	15.8	15.4	0.37
JaMychal Green	18	18	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.01	-3	5	-8	13.6	13.3	0.34	15.0	15.7	-0.73
Anthony Lamb	41	43	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.05	-9	11	-20	14.4	12.6	1.85	16.3	15.1	1.19

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Powell	37	36	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.14	7	-9	16	17.2	14.6	2.61	13.8	13.1	0.74
Jaden Hardy	51	50	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.25	4	-6	10	15.0	16.2	-1.22	13.8	12.9	0.90
Justin Holiday	50	49	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	0	-2	15.0	16.2	-1.24	12.3	14.3	-1.95
Davis Bertans	9	9	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.08	-9	7	-16	15.1	15.6	-0.54	10.4	13.6	-3.18
Christian Wood	52	51	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.20	-2	0	-2	15.2	16.1	-0.89	13.2	13.5	-0.28
Josh Green	73	73	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.56	7	-9	16	16.5	13.3	3.16	13.8	12.1	1.70
Luka Doncic	85	86	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.47	2	-4	6	15.2	17.7	-2.43	13.7	10.9	2.77
Reggie Bullock	81	81	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.38	-5	3	-8	15.3	16.7	-1.40	13.4	13.0	0.41
Maxi Kleber	62	60	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.17	-12	10	-22	15.9	15.1	0.76	12.9	14.1	-1.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.57,0.6,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.47,0.32,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.52,0.45,0.46,0.33,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 107, HOU 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.55,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.25,0.38,0.48,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.48,0.32,0.31,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.31,0.42,0	92.0%
BOS 89, CHA 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.43,0.21,0.2,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.17,0.28,0	91.9%
DEN 83, VAN 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.26,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.47,0.49,0.23,0.21,0.3,0.47,0.38,0.22,0.43,0.42,0	91.7%