NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	109		Excitement	8.5 [254]		MVP	Jaylen Brown (BOS): +41.0%
Houston Rockets	111		Comeback	1.6 [150]		LVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): -36.2%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaylen Brown	0.41	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.41	0.29	0.16	0.04	25	74%	0.48	2	-0.07	8	87%	-0.03
Malcolm Brogdon	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.2	0.13	0.08	0.00	11	69%	0.22	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.05
Luke Kornet	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Blake Griffin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	8	56%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sam Hauser	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	8	31%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.15,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.03	0.00	7	37%	0.05	4	-0.11	2	50%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	-0.36	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.36	-0.06	-0.30	-0.01	22	46%	-0.10	4	-0.27	4	100%	0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jabari Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.25	0.25	0.23	0.04	0.02	11	100%	0.27	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.04
Usman Garuba	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.10	0.00	2	150%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin Jr.	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.04	0.01	13	65%	0.14	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Kevin Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	0.00	13	48%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Josh Christopher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tari Eason	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	7	37%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
TyTy Washington Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae'Sean Tate	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	10	46%	0.00	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Jalen Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.14,-0.12,-0.14,-0.03,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	29	41%	0.10	3	-0.22	11	91%	0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	0.6	27.4	15.5	24.5	1.8	43.2	138.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +29.2%

BOS -21.0%

HOU +22.0%

HOU +15.3%

HOU +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	HOU	NBA	BOS	HOU	NBA
this game	13.4	16.1	14.4	112.4	113.3	113.4
season	14.5	14.8		116.3	109.8
opponent	13.9	14.6		118.0	110.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	12.1	15.8	14.3	12.0	13.4
HOU	14.6	17.7	17.0	15.7	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Grant Williams	16	16	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.10	4	-6	10	15.2	13.0	2.24	16.3	16.1	0.20
Luke Kornet	17	16	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.14	3	-5	8	16.1	12.8	3.32	17.2	15.9	1.32
Blake Griffin	16	18	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.05	-5	3	-8	14.1	13.2	0.89	15.0	16.4	-1.40
Marcus Smart	60	60	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.13	-5	3	-8	12.2	15.3	-3.05	15.8	16.6	-0.76
Jaylen Brown	80	80	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.41	3	-5	8	12.9	15.4	-2.46	16.1	16.3	-0.23
Derrick White	52	54	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	0	-2	13.9	12.8	1.08	17.3	14.7	2.65
Malcolm Brogdon	59	59	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.38	1	-3	4	13.3	13.4	-0.11	15.6	17.0	-1.38
Sam Hauser	38	39	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.14	-7	5	-12	15.2	12.2	3.05	15.8	16.4	-0.54
Al Horford	64	64	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.36	0	-2	2	12.5	15.2	-2.68	16.2	16.1	0.13
Jayson Tatum	83	84	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.32	-2	0	-2	13.1	14.8	-1.64	16.1	16.2	-0.08

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tari Eason	73	71	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.66	2	0	2	16.1	16.4	-0.35	13.5	13.2	0.31
Kevin Porter Jr.	77	76	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.36	6	-4	10	15.9	17.0	-1.09	13.1	14.3	-1.21
Jalen Green	85	84	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.35	2	0	2	15.8	18.7	-2.94	13.2	14.5	-1.34
Jabari Smith Jr.	75	73	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.39	0	2	-2	15.9	17.0	-1.06	12.9	14.7	-1.76
TyTy Washington Jr.	23	23	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.07	10	-8	18	17.3	15.8	1.46	15.9	12.6	3.32
Kenyon Martin Jr.	81	81	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.29	2	0	2	16.2	15.8	0.39	13.0	15.4	-2.39
Usman Garuba	23	24	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.05	2	0	2	17.0	15.9	1.06	14.7	12.9	1.76
Josh Christopher	6	7	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.01	-5	7	-12	17.7	16.0	1.62	13.0	13.4	-0.41
Jae'Sean Tate	47	46	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.06	-10	12	-22	16.5	15.8	0.71	13.5	13.3	0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.52,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.74,0.77,0.76,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.7,0.66,0.57,0.71,0.77,0.87,0.81,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 99, HOU 108	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.66,0.79,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.62,0.67,0.81,0.9,0.96,0.9,0.95,0.98,1,0.98,1	93.7%
POR 108, OKC 120	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.47,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.64,0.78,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.76,0.68,0.71,0.81,0.76,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.81,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.96,1,1,1	93.4%
ORL 83, BOS 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.87,0.83,0.76,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.77,0.9,0.85,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,1	93.3%