NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	115		Excitement	7.8 [376]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): +44.8%
Miami Heat	119		Comeback	12.9 [167]		LVP	Cody Zeller (MIA): -9.6%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Isaac Okoro	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.06	0.01	9	76%	0.18	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Evan Mobley	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08	0.02	0.07	0.01	10	50%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Caris LeVert	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.00	-0.03	13	62%	0.15	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Donovan Mitchell	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.17,0.17,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.07	0.16	-0.08	0.02	30	64%	0.19	4	-0.12	6	67%	-0.01
Lamar Stevens	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	5	57%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Jarrett Allen	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	5	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Robin Lopez	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cedi Osman	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ricky Rubio	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.45	0.45	0.24	0.23	0.02	16	80%	0.49	1	-0.05	9	89%	0.04
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.13	0.14	0.01	15	74%	0.33	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.06	0.01	8	87%	0.25	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.03	0.09	-0.01	12	68%	0.24	4	-0.10	4	75%	0.01
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	4	70%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	8	39%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	7	37%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	5	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.6	28.3	15.3	24.6	2.4	42.5	142.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +42.4%

MIA +11.8%

MIA +9.5%

CLE -16.1%

MIA +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	MIA	NBA	CLE	MIA	NBA
this game	15.3	13.9	14.4	118.6	119.0	113.4
season	15.1	15.1		114.0	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.7		112.1	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	15.2	15.2	14.8	16.0	15.3
MIA	16.1	14.2	15.2	10.8	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cedi Osman	25	25	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.01	4	-8	12	14.4	15.7	-1.32	15.4	13.4	1.92
Jarrett Allen	68	69	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.15	8	-12	20	15.6	14.7	0.93	14.4	12.7	1.71
Robin Lopez	1	1	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-2	0	3.0	15.5	-12.47	0.0	14.1	-14.06
Lamar Stevens	49	51	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.10	2	-6	8	14.7	16.0	-1.31	14.7	13.1	1.52
Donovan Mitchell	86	89	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.39	1	-5	6	15.4	15.2	0.18	14.1	12.6	1.44
Caris LeVert	79	81	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.26	-5	1	-6	15.1	16.5	-1.42	13.5	15.7	-2.24
Isaac Okoro	71	74	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	-2	0	15.4	15.2	0.15	13.3	15.6	-2.24
Ricky Rubio	50	51	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.33	-8	4	-12	16.1	14.6	1.53	13.5	14.3	-0.80
Evan Mobley	56	59	-0.88	0.38	-1.26	-0.35	-18	14	-32	15.9	14.6	1.22	13.7	14.2	-0.55

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caleb Martin	56	54	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.35	17	-13	30	13.1	15.0	-1.89	15.7	14.9	0.78
Max Strus	55	52	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.44	11	-7	18	13.2	14.8	-1.60	15.5	15.1	0.43
Bam Adebayo	81	77	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.47	4	0	4	13.3	16.5	-3.15	15.7	14.0	1.69
Tyler Herro	81	77	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.39	6	-2	8	13.8	14.3	-0.49	16.0	12.8	3.20
Victor Oladipo	48	46	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.13	7	-3	10	13.4	14.4	-1.01	14.8	15.8	-0.98
Jimmy Butler	72	71	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.21	-5	9	-14	14.2	13.2	1.03	14.9	16.7	-1.79
Cody Zeller	19	20	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.08	0	4	-4	16.5	13.3	3.15	14.0	15.7	-1.69
Gabe Vincent	43	44	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.00	-9	13	-22	15.4	12.8	2.67	15.5	15.2	0.38
Kevin Love	45	44	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.00	-11	15	-26	14.6	13.3	1.32	14.6	15.9	-1.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.41,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.32,0.26,0.08,0.07,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.34,0.29,0.43,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.9,0.79,0.94,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 103, CLE 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.23,0.25,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.21,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.73,0.75,0.72,0.78,0.85,1	91.1%
MEM 122, OKC 128	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.3,0.19,0.18,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.72,0.86,0.95,0.98,1,1	90.9%
GSW 89, PHX 102	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.25,0.3,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.34,0.48,0.56,0.53,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.97,0.99,1,1	90.9%