NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	106		Excitement	10.3 [66]		MVP	Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL): +40.3%
Orlando Magic	108		Comeback	1.7 [863]		LVP	Jalen Duren (DET): -19.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaden Ivey	0.40	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.18,0.13,0.4	0.15	0.27	0.02	13	83%	0.51	3	-0.11	4	50%	-0.11
Alec Burks	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.16	0.03	0.00	4	114%	0.21	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.01
Isaiah Livers	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	0.00	5	90%	0.18	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	6	42%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Stewart	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.04	0.01	6	62%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Hamidou Diallo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	10	55%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
James Wiseman	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04	-0.08	0.03	-0.01	10	40%	0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Killian Hayes	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	10	52%	0.07	3	-0.13	3	100%	0.04
Bojan Bogdanovic	-0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18	-0.10	-0.07	0.00	12	29%	-0.11	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Duren	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.09	-0.11	0.00	5	20%	-0.13	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wendell Carter Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,0.4	0.40	-0.02	0.42	-0.00	13	44%	0.43	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.00
Cole Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,0.03,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.05	0.15	-0.00	12	58%	0.22	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Markelle Fultz	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	-0.01	0.13	-0.00	14	48%	0.22	2	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Gary Harris	0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.02	0.00	8	75%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Franz Wagner	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.01	0.03	13	68%	0.15	1	-0.05	5	100%	0.08
Moritz Wagner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Jonathan Isaac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.00	6	83%	0.11	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Bol Bol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paolo Banchero	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	13	35%	-0.08	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02
Jalen Suggs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-0.04	-0.00	8	12%	-0.09	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.4	25.6	15.3	27.6	2.4	41.4	141.3
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +4.4%

ORL +20.8%

ORL +9.5%

ORL +17.1%

DET -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ORL	NBA	DET	ORL	NBA
this game	13.7	14.5	14.4	102.9	106.9	113.4
season	14.6	14.3		109.6	111.0
opponent	14.5	14.2		113.0	117.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.0	13.2	12.4	16.7	13.7
ORL	14.7	15.1	13.8	14.6	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Wiseman	51	50	0.33	-0.83	1.16	-0.14	16	-18	34	12.8	14.6	-1.75	15.9	13.2	2.70
Hamidou Diallo	42	42	0.33	-0.83	1.16	-0.11	15	-17	32	12.9	14.3	-1.36	15.4	13.9	1.41
Alec Burks	40	41	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.19	13	-15	28	11.8	14.9	-3.16	15.7	13.7	1.97
Cory Joseph	31	31	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.06	1	-3	4	13.5	13.8	-0.23	15.5	14.1	1.46
Isaiah Livers	46	43	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.27	3	-5	8	13.5	13.9	-0.38	15.0	14.2	0.81
Jaden Ivey	66	64	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.02	-13	11	-24	14.9	11.6	3.30	13.9	15.7	-1.84
Killian Hayes	69	67	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.37	-2	0	-2	13.8	13.6	0.18	13.9	15.9	-2.03
Jalen Duren	47	47	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.26	-16	14	-30	15.1	12.5	2.61	13.7	15.3	-1.64
Isaiah Stewart	59	57	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.32	-14	12	-26	14.1	13.2	0.84	14.0	15.2	-1.15
Bojan Bogdanovic	64	63	-0.87	0.37	-1.23	-0.49	-13	11	-24	13.7	13.7	0.03	13.8	15.7	-1.84

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Markelle Fultz	64	66	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.39	17	-15	32	13.3	16.7	-3.46	13.9	13.4	0.43
Franz Wagner	63	66	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.38	11	-9	20	13.9	15.6	-1.76	14.5	12.2	2.29
Gary Harris	59	60	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.45	6	-4	10	13.9	15.4	-1.53	14.3	12.9	1.38
Paolo Banchero	69	70	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.29	9	-7	16	13.8	16.2	-2.47	13.7	13.7	0.02
Wendell Carter Jr.	68	69	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.43	3	-1	4	13.9	15.9	-2.09	13.7	13.8	-0.13
Moritz Wagner	33	34	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.01	-1	3	-4	15.9	13.9	2.09	13.8	13.7	0.13
Bol Bol	32	33	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.15	-7	9	-16	16.2	13.8	2.47	13.7	13.7	-0.02
Jalen Suggs	44	45	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.03	-6	8	-14	15.8	13.5	2.31	13.1	14.2	-1.02
Jonathan Isaac	36	35	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.02	-7	9	-16	15.1	14.2	0.94	11.9	14.6	-2.72
Cole Anthony	37	37	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	0.05	-15	17	-32	16.7	13.3	3.46	13.4	13.9	-0.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.55,0.56,0.39,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.45,0.64,0.81,0.9,0.84,0.66,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.42,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.67,0.85,0.77,0.87,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 89, LAC 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.56,0.5,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.47,0.69,0.49,0.6,0.53,0.79,0.78,0.96,1	91.7%
ATL 101, POR 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.51,0.64,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.82,1	91.1%
NYK 78, CHH 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.67,0.79,0.83,0.78,0.7,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.73,0.59,0.46,0.68,0.84,0.9,0.96,1	91.0%