NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	107		Excitement	8.0 [338]		MVP	Gabe Vincent (MIA): +36.6%
Orlando Magic	103		Comeback	57.8 [37]		LVP	Gary Harris (ORL): -18.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gabe Vincent	0.37	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.26,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.37	0.10	0.27	0.01	12	71%	0.41	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.10
Jimmy Butler	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06	-0.00	0.08	0.01	17	52%	0.15	3	-0.09	8	100%	0.04
Haywood Highsmith	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02	-0.03	0.08	0.02	23	49%	0.14	4	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Orlando Robinson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Max Strus	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	12	50%	0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jamaree Bouyea	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Bam Adebayo	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	10	54%	0.04	4	-0.11	4	75%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Moritz Wagner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.09	0.10	-0.00	7	70%	0.19	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Jalen Suggs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.13	0.01	-0.00	7	87%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Cole Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.06	-0.01	9	39%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wendell Carter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.06	-0.09	0.00	5	100%	0.15	4	-0.18	4	100%	0.02
Bol Bol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Isaac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Markelle Fultz	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.08	-0.04	14	57%	0.15	4	-0.20	2	100%	0.01
Franz Wagner	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.16	0.03	-0.02	15	30%	-0.00	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.00
Paolo Banchero	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16	-0.16	-0.06	-0.10	0.00	16	44%	-0.08	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Gary Harris	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.18	-0.18	-0.03	-0.15	0.01	9	33%	-0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	35.5	14.5	28.5	2.3	36.3	3.4	14.5	161.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	2.3	15.0	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +30.7%

MIA +16.5%

ORL -4.7%

MIA +12.4%

ORL -4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	15.6	15.3	14.4	103.9	100.0	113.4
season	15.1	14.3		111.9	111.0
opponent	14.5	14.6		113.0	112.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	16.5	16.9	15.2	12.6	19.9	15.6
ORL	13.5	16.6	14.8	17.7	12.1	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	68	69	0.86	-0.36	1.21	0.45	14	-10	24	14.5	17.7	-3.16	15.1	15.7	-0.60
Gabe Vincent	80	80	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.45	10	-6	16	15.5	16.0	-0.51	15.5	14.6	0.85
Bam Adebayo	86	84	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.34	13	-9	22	15.2	17.9	-2.73	15.1	16.2	-1.09
Max Strus	76	75	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.43	1	3	-2	15.4	16.2	-0.84	15.2	15.4	-0.22
Tyler Herro	88	91	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.16	8	-4	12	16.3	11.5	4.84	15.6	12.7	2.95
Caleb Martin	53	51	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	4	-4	14.8	16.5	-1.75	14.9	15.6	-0.73
Jamaree Bouyea	18	18	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.03	-8	12	-20	17.0	15.3	1.69	13.7	15.6	-1.95
Orlando Robinson	17	19	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.04	-9	13	-22	17.9	15.2	2.73	16.2	15.1	1.09
Haywood Highsmith	29	28	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.04	-9	13	-22	17.6	14.8	2.71	16.0	15.0	0.95

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cole Anthony	35	38	0.41	-0.91	1.32	0.18	8	-12	20	16.3	14.7	1.62	16.1	15.3	0.84
Moritz Wagner	39	40	0.40	-0.90	1.29	0.16	8	-12	20	16.1	14.8	1.30	16.2	15.2	0.98
Jalen Suggs	52	52	0.32	-0.82	1.14	0.29	1	-5	6	16.3	14.2	2.13	15.7	15.5	0.22
Jonathan Isaac	28	28	0.31	-0.81	1.12	0.17	5	-9	14	15.2	15.3	-0.08	16.0	15.4	0.60
Bol Bol	36	36	0.27	-0.77	1.04	0.16	4	-8	12	16.3	14.7	1.59	15.5	15.6	-0.11
Wendell Carter Jr.	54	54	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.16	-8	4	-12	15.3	15.3	0.01	14.4	16.9	-2.43
Franz Wagner	69	70	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.62	0	-4	4	15.2	15.5	-0.30	15.7	15.4	0.31
Paolo Banchero	67	67	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.58	-8	4	-12	14.7	16.3	-1.59	15.6	15.5	0.11
Markelle Fultz	68	65	-0.91	0.41	-1.32	-0.56	-12	8	-20	14.7	16.3	-1.62	15.3	16.1	-0.84
Gary Harris	57	56	-0.96	0.46	-1.43	-0.55	-14	10	-24	14.5	16.3	-1.83	15.2	16.1	-0.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.76,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.87,0.8,0.73,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.52,0.65,0.65,0.59,0.69,0.74,0.67,0.78,0.87,0.93,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.94,0.89,0.93,0.98,0.84,0.54,0.38,0.21,0.15,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 98, PHI 92	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.78,0.79,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.76,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.8,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.67,0.68,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.75,0.84,0.78,0.92,0.5,0.25,0.04,0.09,0.04,0	91.0%
MEM 120, PHI 115	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.62,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.83,0.77,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,0.93,0.93,0.98,0.96,0.99,0.46,0.45,0.16,0.15,0.04,0	90.2%
NOK 114, DEN 112	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.63,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.61,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.75,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.74,0.79,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.94,0.59,0.46,0.38,0.16,0.1,0.09,0	90.0%