NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	100		Excitement	8.3 [287]		MVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): +23.4%
Cleveland Cavaliers	97		Comeback	2.7 [344]		LVP	Victor Oladipo (MIA): -17.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.23,0.23	0.06	0.17	-0.00	13	56%	0.23	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.04
Caleb Martin	0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.18	0.05	0.01	8	112%	0.24	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.02	0.13	-0.01	15	55%	0.25	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Gabe Vincent	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	8	56%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.03	0.03	-0.07	5	60%	0.07	3	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Orlando Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	4	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Max Strus	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.07,-0.16,-0.1,-0.12	0.01	-0.12	0.01	16	49%	-0.06	2	-0.07	15	67%	-0.02
Victor Oladipo	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	8	31%	-0.06	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Evan Mobley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.04	-0.02	15	59%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jarrett Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.01	8	74%	0.13	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Caris LeVert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	12	52%	0.07	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Dean Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	42%	0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	6	57%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.06
Cedi Osman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaac Okoro	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	62%	0.10	3	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Darius Garland	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1	-0.10	0.02	-0.12	0.01	13	62%	0.10	3	-0.20	0	0%	0.00
Donovan Mitchell	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.09	-0.00	17	44%	-0.08	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.4	27.4	14.5	25.2	0.2	35.4	130.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +3.9%

MIA +18.9%

MIA +7.0%

MIA +17.5%

MIA +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CLE	NBA	MIA	CLE	NBA
this game	14.9	15.7	14.4	105.3	104.3	113.4
season	15.1	15.1		111.9	114.0
opponent	14.7	14.6		109.0	112.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.0	12.2	15.9	16.0	14.9
CLE	15.3	17.3	14.7	15.3	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gabe Vincent	43	44	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.48	11	-8	19	12.9	16.6	-3.69	15.8	15.6	0.14
Tyler Herro	71	69	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.48	6	-3	9	16.2	11.2	5.06	15.7	15.7	-0.07
Jimmy Butler	65	65	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.51	0	3	-3	16.4	11.8	4.65	15.7	15.7	-0.02
Bam Adebayo	75	74	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.54	-6	9	-15	15.1	14.2	0.88	15.4	16.7	-1.30
Caleb Martin	70	70	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.57	-7	10	-17	14.9	15.2	-0.34	15.3	16.9	-1.61
Orlando Robinson	20	19	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.10	9	-6	15	14.2	15.1	-0.88	16.7	15.4	1.30
Kyle Lowry	46	44	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.07	-5	8	-13	16.6	13.4	3.14	15.2	16.2	-0.98
Max Strus	30	29	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.19	3	0	3	11.3	16.6	-5.33	16.1	15.5	0.59
Victor Oladipo	55	51	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.30	4	-1	5	13.9	16.4	-2.51	16.4	14.8	1.62

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ricky Rubio	35	35	0.40	-0.90	1.30	0.22	6	-9	15	16.1	15.5	0.62	13.1	16.0	-2.99
Dean Wade	40	43	0.18	-0.68	0.86	0.18	0	-3	3	16.1	15.4	0.75	14.0	15.8	-1.82
Evan Mobley	75	77	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.31	16	-19	35	14.7	20.1	-5.40	15.4	13.1	2.33
Cedi Osman	16	16	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.07	-5	2	-7	17.0	15.4	1.57	11.1	15.7	-4.67
Darius Garland	59	62	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.54	6	-9	15	15.5	16.0	-0.52	15.6	13.7	1.92
Isaac Okoro	51	49	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.38	-4	1	-5	15.5	16.0	-0.51	15.8	14.0	1.75
Donovan Mitchell	70	72	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.66	2	-5	7	15.3	16.9	-1.56	15.8	12.1	3.72
Caris LeVert	57	58	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.16	-19	16	-35	16.4	14.6	1.82	13.3	17.6	-4.29
Jarrett Allen	62	63	-0.98	0.48	-1.47	-0.49	-17	14	-31	16.3	14.5	1.77	16.3	12.2	4.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.58,0.6,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.46,0.45,0.57,0.67,0.61,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.28,0.21,0.26,0.36,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.54,0.4,0.25,0.55,0.41,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 74, ORL 69	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.58,0.66,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.45,0.55,0.34,0.04,0	90.3%
CLE 107, MIN 103	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.47,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.31,0.69,0.55,0.26,0	89.8%
GSW 94, SEA 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.46,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.42,0.57,0.71,0.67,0.73,0.59,0.53,0.39,0.47,0.54,0.43,0.29,0	89.7%