NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	105		Excitement	7.9 [349]		MVP	Luka Doncic (DAL): +53.2%
Dallas Mavericks	111		Comeback	4.5 [630]		LVP	Killian Hayes (DET): -22.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bojan Bogdanovic	0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.22,0.33,0.26	0.16	0.13	0.04	15	83%	0.39	4	-0.13	5	100%	0.04
Isaiah Livers	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	-0.00	5	64%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Jaden Ivey	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	8	61%	0.10	2	-0.04	7	57%	-0.04
Jalen Duren	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.01	4	90%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Alec Burks	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	8	44%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Saddiq Bey	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.05	-0.00	15	53%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Isaiah Stewart	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	47%	0.01	1	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01
Kevin Knox II	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Killian Hayes	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	16	25%	-0.19	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luka Doncic	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.32,0.46,0.46,0.53	0.53	0.37	0.18	0.02	24	80%	0.64	4	-0.11	18	78%	0.03
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.08	-0.00	5	90%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.09	-0.01	4	80%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	73%	0.08	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jaden Hardy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	43%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.03	-0.00	16	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	40%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	10	35%	-0.07	1	-0.07	3	33%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.5	1.8	24.2	14.8	33.2	2.4	29.9	136.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +22.5%

DAL +4.7%

DAL +15.8%

DAL +8.0%

DET -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DAL	NBA	DET	DAL	NBA
this game	14.7	15.9	14.4	111.7	118.1	113.4
season	14.6	15.2		109.6	115.5
opponent	14.3	14.2		115.8	117.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.9	13.7	14.7	15.8	14.7
DAL	13.3	15.6	16.7	18.5	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaden Ivey	40	41	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.01	5	-11	16	14.4	15.0	-0.51	16.3	15.6	0.66
Jalen Duren	52	52	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.12	3	-9	12	14.6	14.9	-0.29	16.5	15.1	1.40
Alec Burks	57	58	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.20	-1	-5	4	14.1	15.8	-1.67	16.5	14.9	1.58
Saddiq Bey	63	63	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.18	-3	-3	0	14.7	14.9	-0.24	15.6	16.4	-0.78
Bojan Bogdanovic	70	69	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.32	-1	-5	4	15.0	14.0	0.94	16.0	15.6	0.40
Killian Hayes	58	57	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.23	-5	-1	-4	14.8	14.6	0.26	15.5	16.5	-0.93
Kevin Knox II	30	30	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	6	-18	15.4	14.4	0.96	16.4	15.7	0.74
Isaiah Livers	58	58	-0.47	-0.04	-0.43	-0.26	-7	1	-8	14.9	14.4	0.53	15.3	16.9	-1.61
Isaiah Stewart	42	42	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.20	-9	3	-12	14.9	14.6	0.29	15.1	16.5	-1.40

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Green	57	58	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.28	17	-11	28	14.4	18.2	-3.79	15.6	13.3	2.29
Reggie Bullock	54	55	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.33	15	-9	24	16.0	15.7	0.25	15.2	14.1	1.14
Dorian Finney-Smith	70	70	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.23	7	-1	8	15.4	17.4	-2.05	14.7	14.8	-0.06
Dwight Powell	48	49	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.19	8	-2	10	17.5	14.3	3.20	15.4	14.1	1.30
Luka Doncic	72	73	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.14	8	-2	10	14.7	19.7	-5.01	14.6	15.2	-0.64
Spencer Dinwiddie	61	61	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.36	-4	10	-14	17.7	12.5	5.16	14.5	15.2	-0.72
Davis Bertans	17	17	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	2	2	13.9	16.3	-2.46	13.4	15.0	-1.63
Jaden Hardy	12	11	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.05	-6	12	-18	19.0	15.4	3.56	13.0	15.0	-1.98
Tim Hardaway Jr.	57	56	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.05	-8	14	-22	16.1	15.6	0.40	14.6	15.0	-0.47
JaVale McGee	22	20	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	0.02	-11	17	-28	16.0	15.9	0.14	13.3	15.1	-1.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.18,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.4,0.46,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.71,0.67,0.76,0.84,0.9,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 107, ATL 118	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.31,0.37,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.23,0.17,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.59,0.67,0.75,0.96,0.99,1,1	92.3%
CHA 93, MIL 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.27,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.77,0.79,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.72,0.84,0.72,1	91.7%
CHH 83, ATL 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.39,0.29,0.26,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.66,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.61,0.69,0.79,0.78,0.72,1	91.7%