NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	101		Excitement	8.5 [257]		MVP	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): +51.4%
Denver Nuggets	99		Comeback	1.2 [527]		LVP	Luguentz Dort (OKC): -20.7%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0.51	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.51	0.21	0.30	-0.01	21	68%	0.54	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.03
Kenrich Williams	0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.31,0.31	0.09	0.21	-0.01	7	79%	0.31	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Joe	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.01	9	44%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Wiggins	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.01	3	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Mike Muscala	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jaylin Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Bazley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tre Mann	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Jalen Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	6	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Josh Giddey	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	17	53%	0.08	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	-0.21	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.12	-0.09	0.00	13	27%	-0.15	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.24	0.24	0.07	0.16	-0.01	5	67%	0.24	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.07
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.07	-0.02	7	67%	0.15	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	7	75%	0.12	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04	0.04	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	13	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Vlatko Cancar	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	8	53%	0.03	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Bones Hyland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.05,-0.05,0.11,-0.13	-0.13	0.05	-0.16	0.01	23	52%	-0.10	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Aaron Gordon	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.21,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.07	-0.02	15	35%	-0.10	2	-0.05	13	46%	-0.15

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.5	26.4	14.4	28.5	2.3	36.3	134.3
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +48.2%

OKC +9.0%

DEN -12.1%

OKC +3.1%

OKC +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DEN	NBA	OKC	DEN	NBA
this game	15.5	16.3	14.4	112.2	108.8	113.4
season	13.7	14.7		113.5	116.8
opponent	14.5	14.5		112.6	112.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.8	14.7	14.0	20.1	15.5
DEN	15.0	15.9	18.7	15.9	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	70	71	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.34	5	-3	8	15.4	15.8	-0.46	16.0	17.6	-1.69
Jalen Williams	54	55	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.37	3	-1	4	15.5	15.5	0.03	16.0	16.8	-0.83
Isaiah Joe	40	38	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.44	-1	3	-4	16.3	14.8	1.50	16.2	16.4	-0.16
Kenrich Williams	46	46	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.43	-3	5	-8	16.3	14.6	1.67	16.8	15.8	1.00
Luguentz Dort	58	57	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.23	1	1	0	15.3	15.8	-0.50	16.6	15.9	0.62
Mike Muscala	31	34	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.11	11	-9	20	14.5	16.0	-1.48	16.0	16.5	-0.48
Aaron Wiggins	29	30	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.27	-3	5	-8	14.7	15.9	-1.23	16.3	16.4	-0.09
Josh Giddey	56	60	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	-2	6	15.4	15.7	-0.35	16.2	16.5	-0.33
Jaylin Williams	13	12	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.10	-2	4	-6	15.7	15.5	0.24	15.1	16.5	-1.44
Tre Mann	24	23	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	2	-2	15.3	15.6	-0.27	17.0	16.1	0.84
Darius Bazley	29	29	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.12	-5	7	-12	15.8	15.3	0.50	17.4	15.8	1.59

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bones Hyland	20	21	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-1	0	18.7	15.7	3.04	15.0	15.6	-0.58
Vlatko Cancar	19	20	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-2	2	18.2	15.8	2.38	13.3	16.1	-2.75
Christian Braun	43	42	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.19	-2	0	-2	16.9	15.8	1.05	14.5	16.4	-1.85
Jeff Green	39	39	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.13	-4	2	-6	17.1	15.7	1.40	14.2	16.5	-2.27
Zeke Nnaji	52	51	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.31	2	-4	6	15.7	17.1	-1.40	16.5	14.2	2.27
Bruce Brown	66	65	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.38	4	-6	10	16.0	17.1	-1.09	16.4	13.1	3.34
Aaron Gordon	72	70	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	0	-2	15.8	18.2	-2.38	16.1	13.3	2.75
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	71	69	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.37	-3	1	-4	16.0	17.3	-1.31	15.6	15.2	0.39
Jamal Murray	73	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.35	-4	2	-6	15.9	18.1	-2.15	15.3	16.4	-1.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.36,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.15,0.1,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 102, DAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.28,0.28,0.37,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.34,0.27,0.19,0.26,0.19,0.1,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0	94.1%
UTA 82, PHX 74	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.33,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.23,0.29,0.18,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.14,0.19,0.18,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.4%
BOS 102, DEN 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.23,0.27,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.27,0.14,0.07,0.06,0,0	93.3%