NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	109		Excitement	9.2 [157]		MVP	Dennis Schroder (LAL): +69.8%
Los Angeles Lakers	112		Comeback	3.4 [251]		LVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): -14.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0.21	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.21	0.10	0.10	-0.01	23	59%	0.31	2	-0.10	5	80%	0.00
Max Strus	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1	0.01	0.09	-0.00	8	42%	0.10	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Jimmy Butler	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.22,0.15,0.09	0.09	0.00	-0.00	22	56%	0.15	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	7	69%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Dewayne Dedmon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	40%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Caleb Martin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	8	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Orlando Robinson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.1	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	10	50%	0.00	3	-0.10	4	50%	-0.07
Tyler Herro	-0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.14	-0.01	-0.01	14	32%	-0.01	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.44,0.41,0.7	0.70	0.23	0.48	0.01	15	73%	0.72	1	-0.02	14	86%	0.12
Thomas Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.32,0.4,0.4,0.4	0.40	0.14	0.26	-0.00	11	84%	0.45	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Kendrick Nunn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	9	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wenyen Gabriel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.03	-0.00	6	71%	0.07	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Troy Brown Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Toscano-Anderson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	2	50%	0.03	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Austin Reaves	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	11	41%	0.02	2	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
Max Christie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	18	50%	0.05	7	-0.16	6	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	3.4	27.5	15.3	28.5	2.8	45.0	147.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +34.4%

LAL +30.0%

MIA -9.4%

MIA -3.4%

MIA -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAL	NBA	MIA	LAL	NBA
this game	14.1	14.5	14.4	109.0	110.9	113.4
season	15.1	14.1		111.9	113.1
opponent	14.2	14.6		112.1	112.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.5	13.5	14.4	15.3	14.1
LAL	14.1	12.6	14.4	17.5	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gabe Vincent	36	37	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.11	0	-3	3	14.1	14.1	-0.06	13.5	15.1	-1.61
Caleb Martin	44	45	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.09	5	-8	13	13.8	14.4	-0.54	15.1	14.1	1.04
Max Strus	51	52	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.02	1	-4	5	14.0	14.3	-0.28	12.9	16.2	-3.28
Orlando Robinson	7	8	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.02	-2	-1	-1	15.9	14.0	1.87	13.4	14.6	-1.26
Dewayne Dedmon	17	16	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.04	-3	0	-3	12.8	14.4	-1.63	11.9	15.0	-3.09
Bam Adebayo	76	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.47	2	-5	7	14.3	13.7	0.60	15.2	12.4	2.78
Tyler Herro	70	70	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.35	-6	3	-9	14.6	13.1	1.46	15.0	13.5	1.56
Victor Oladipo	65	66	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.30	-8	5	-13	14.3	13.7	0.58	14.5	14.7	-0.23
Jimmy Butler	70	70	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.51	-1	-2	1	13.8	14.9	-1.11	14.9	13.6	1.33
Kyle Lowry	64	64	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.52	-3	0	-3	14.1	14.1	0.06	15.1	13.5	1.61

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Austin Reaves	62	63	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.38	15	-12	27	15.6	12.8	2.75	15.0	12.7	2.25
Russell Westbrook	78	78	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.27	12	-9	21	13.8	16.9	-3.02	13.9	15.0	-1.19
Dennis Schroder	84	83	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.39	6	-3	9	14.7	13.8	0.86	14.3	13.3	1.00
Thomas Bryant	55	54	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.48	3	0	3	16.3	12.4	3.94	14.6	13.5	1.15
Patrick Beverley	54	53	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.64	-7	10	-17	15.8	13.0	2.79	13.1	15.3	-2.26
Troy Brown Jr.	32	32	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.08	9	-6	15	11.4	16.0	-4.58	13.7	14.3	-0.59
Max Christie	15	16	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	4	-5	11.9	15.0	-3.13	15.9	13.8	2.16
Wenyen Gabriel	46	46	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.07	0	3	-3	12.4	16.3	-3.94	13.5	14.6	-1.15
Kendrick Nunn	34	31	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	-0.01	-6	9	-15	14.2	14.7	-0.54	13.6	14.3	-0.73
Juan Toscano-Anderson	45	44	-0.46	0.96	-1.42	0.01	-16	19	-35	15.8	13.5	2.32	14.3	13.9	0.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.6,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.4,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.26,0.23,0.31,0.35,0.67,0.69,0.84,0.91,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 101, WAS 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.77,0.7,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.53,0.42,0.41,0.33,0.44,0.58,0.48,0.34,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.35,0.53,0.75,0.93,0.94,1,1	91.1%
MEM 100, LAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.47,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.38,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.72,0.62,0.78,0.77,0.92,1	90.5%
GSW 95, SAS 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.68,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.45,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.31,0.47,0.53,0.81,0.95,0.93,0.99,1	90.4%