NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	125		Excitement	9.4 [139]		MVP	Killian Hayes (DET): +39.4%
Detroit Pistons	131		Comeback	4.9 [188]		LVP	Isaiah Stewart (DET): -20.3%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Christian Wood	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23	0.15	0.09	0.01	13	78%	0.35	2	-0.12	6	67%	-0.02
Reggie Bullock	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.03	0.18	0.00	4	60%	0.21	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.16	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.23,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.03	0.00	20	59%	0.16	0	0.00	4	50%	0.01
Luka Doncic	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,0.01,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.13	0.05	0.04	25	62%	0.22	3	-0.08	6	33%	-0.06
Dorian Finney-Smith	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Davis Bertans	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	40%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Josh Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Dinwiddie	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Maxi Kleber	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.04	-0.11	-0.02	8	62%	0.06	1	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	3	70%	0.02	4	-0.12	4	25%	-0.06

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Killian Hayes	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.33,0.39	0.39	0.15	0.25	0.01	13	85%	0.45	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bojan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.23	0.07	0.03	14	88%	0.33	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Marvin Bagley III	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.11	0.12	-0.01	10	73%	0.23	1	0.00	6	67%	-0.03
Jaden Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.08,0.15,0.15	0.15	-0.07	0.19	-0.03	15	47%	0.24	4	-0.09	4	50%	-0.02
Isaiah Livers	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	2	150%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Knox II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Duren	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	7	61%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.05
Saddiq Bey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	11	42%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Stewart	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.05	-0.15	0.01	12	37%	-0.18	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.5	2.4	30.6	15.3	31.7	2.4	31.4	2.5	12.2	153.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	2.3	15.0	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +8.9%

DAL -0.4%

DET +30.5%

DET +20.5%

DAL -9.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DET	NBA	DAL	DET	NBA
this game	15.1	14.5	14.4	117.9	120.2	113.4
season	15.2	14.6		115.5	109.6
opponent	14.2	14.3		117.3	115.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DAL	14.9	15.5	13.9	15.9	16.1	15.1
DET	15.1	12.8	12.3	17.7	17.1	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Bullock	46	47	0.49	-0.99	1.49	0.23	9	-15	24	13.7	16.2	-2.51	14.4	14.5	-0.12
Spencer Dinwiddie	57	55	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.20	6	-12	18	15.6	14.5	1.05	14.8	14.2	0.65
Davis Bertans	5	5	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.01	-3	-3	0	16.6	15.0	1.58	10.0	14.7	-4.71
Dwight Powell	36	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-4	2	15.7	14.8	0.99	12.9	15.4	-2.50
Tim Hardaway Jr.	82	82	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-6	6	15.4	14.1	1.25	14.3	15.2	-0.92
Maxi Kleber	63	67	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-2	-2	14.6	15.8	-1.17	15.3	13.2	2.08
Josh Green	29	33	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	-2	-2	14.2	15.4	-1.22	14.1	14.7	-0.62
Dorian Finney-Smith	61	64	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.22	-10	4	-14	16.0	13.8	2.25	14.8	14.1	0.73
Luka Doncic	81	85	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.36	-13	7	-20	15.0	15.4	-0.35	14.5	14.5	-0.01
Christian Wood	70	69	-0.77	0.27	-1.03	-0.50	-9	3	-12	14.9	15.4	-0.53	14.9	13.7	1.18

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaden Ivey	72	67	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.66	3	3	0	14.6	14.3	0.34	15.4	14.6	0.72
Bojan Bogdanovic	84	78	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.31	14	-8	22	14.8	13.4	1.37	15.7	13.4	2.31
Marvin Bagley III	69	66	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.38	10	-4	14	14.7	14.1	0.66	16.1	13.4	2.68
Killian Hayes	65	63	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.30	9	-3	12	14.8	14.0	0.83	16.2	13.4	2.78
Isaiah Stewart	64	62	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.05	2	4	-2	14.1	15.0	-0.94	16.0	13.7	2.30
Cory Joseph	21	22	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.01	-1	7	-8	13.7	14.7	-1.03	13.2	15.6	-2.36
Saddiq Bey	39	40	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.10	2	4	-2	14.3	14.6	-0.33	13.4	16.1	-2.72
Jalen Duren	40	40	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.06	-4	10	-14	14.1	14.7	-0.66	13.4	16.1	-2.68
Isaiah Livers	13	14	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.01	-3	9	-12	15.0	14.4	0.57	16.1	14.9	1.21
Kevin Knox II	25	28	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.01	-8	14	-22	13.4	14.8	-1.37	13.4	15.7	-2.31
Alec Burks	43	42	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.30	0	6	-6	14.2	14.7	-0.47	13.6	16.1	-2.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.45,0.59,0.62,0.73,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.75,0.88,0.76,0.53,0.69,0.69,0.78,0.89,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.54,0.45,0.21,0.45,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 113, BOS 122	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.51,0.6,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.77,0.82,0.78,0.85,0.82,0.79,0.73,0.79,0.92,0.8,0.89,0.85,0.96,0.91,0.54,0.45,0.63,0.76,0.98,1	89.3%
SEA 103, LAL 106	0.5,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.65,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.86,0.73,0.59,0.84,0.74,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.53,0.5,0.31,0.29,0.67,0.73,1	89.1%
LAL 111, MIA 114	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.62,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.86,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.66,0.8,0.89,0.85,0.58,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.68,0.83,1	89.0%