NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	98		Excitement	8.6 [238]		MVP	Josh Green (DAL): +34.5%
Dallas Mavericks	97		Comeback	12.4 [73]		LVP	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DEN): -33.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.23	-0.00	0.22	-0.01	11	54%	0.31	2	-0.08	4	25%	-0.06
Bones Hyland	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.23,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.21,0.23,0.23	0.13	0.10	0.00	21	60%	0.34	1	-0.12	6	100%	0.08
DeAndre Jordan	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	5	73%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Jeff Green	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Christian Braun	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlatko Cancar	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	117%	0.11	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Davon Reed	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	13	43%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.34	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.28,-0.28,-0.34	-0.12	-0.21	0.01	11	35%	-0.21	4	-0.13	4	100%	0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.24	0.11	0.01	9	115%	0.39	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.15	0.10	0.00	7	100%	0.27	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Dwight Powell	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.04	0.13	-0.02	6	69%	0.21	1	-0.01	4	25%	-0.05
Christian Wood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.18	-0.18	-0.02	-0.14	0.01	5	30%	-0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.14	-0.05	-0.01	9	10%	-0.17	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Luka Doncic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.25	-0.25	-0.02	-0.22	0.00	16	52%	-0.12	4	-0.13	10	60%	-0.03
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.23,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.12	-0.13	0.01	15	37%	-0.15	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	2.6	41.0	0.2	25.2	2.5	32.3	132.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +28.0%

DEN +17.0%

DEN +23.1%

DAL -27.3%

DEN +9.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DAL	NBA	DEN	DAL	NBA
this game	15.8	14.5	14.4	103.2	102.1	113.4
season	14.7	15.2		116.6	115.5
opponent	14.3	14.5		115.8	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.1	16.7	16.5	17.3	15.8
DAL	15.2	12.8	14.8	15.4	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	77	77	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.36	8	-7	15	15.4	17.7	-2.36	14.7	13.6	1.10
Zeke Nnaji	30	30	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.30	6	-5	11	16.9	15.3	1.59	15.0	14.3	0.67
Bruce Brown	68	70	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.51	-2	3	-5	16.2	14.8	1.44	14.6	14.3	0.25
Michael Porter Jr.	59	61	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.19	6	-5	11	16.4	14.9	1.53	14.9	13.8	1.15
DeAndre Jordan	65	67	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	-3	7	16.1	15.2	0.94	14.7	14.0	0.77
Bones Hyland	69	68	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.50	-12	13	-25	16.3	14.4	1.91	14.1	15.6	-1.57
Davon Reed	39	37	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.31	-7	8	-15	14.9	16.5	-1.59	13.5	15.2	-1.71
Vlatko Cancar	23	23	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	0	1	14.8	16.1	-1.30	13.8	14.7	-0.90
Jeff Green	11	10	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.03	4	-3	7	12.5	16.2	-3.80	17.4	14.2	3.24
Christian Braun	34	32	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	4	-7	15.2	16.1	-0.90	13.9	14.8	-0.90

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Davis Bertans	27	30	0.29	-0.79	1.08	-0.33	21	-22	43	11.3	15.8	-4.53	18.3	14.6	3.69
JaVale McGee	21	20	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.11	3	-4	7	14.1	14.6	-0.53	17.8	15.3	2.58
Tim Hardaway Jr.	41	44	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.03	8	-9	17	13.5	15.2	-1.70	15.6	16.0	-0.41
Spencer Dinwiddie	56	56	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.39	-14	13	-27	16.1	12.3	3.82	16.0	15.6	0.37
Christian Wood	36	37	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	2	-5	14.4	14.5	-0.10	14.4	16.7	-2.26
Josh Green	61	60	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.57	13	-14	27	13.9	15.7	-1.82	16.1	15.3	0.83
Dwight Powell	40	39	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.23	-6	5	-11	15.2	14.0	1.16	15.8	15.8	0.06
Luka Doncic	71	71	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.60	1	-2	3	14.2	15.4	-1.16	15.5	16.6	-1.03
Dorian Finney-Smith	71	69	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.58	-3	2	-5	14.7	14.0	0.62	15.5	16.6	-1.11
Reggie Bullock	51	49	-1.25	0.75	-2.01	-0.52	-25	24	-49	15.9	12.8	3.10	14.9	16.8	-1.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.45,0.4,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.45,0.39,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.17,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.65,0.48,0.52,0.63,0.77,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 100, ORL 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.53,0.46,0.55,0.9,0.59,0	91.8%
MEM 104, SAS 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.53,0.41,0.46,0.62,0.54,0.55,0.42,0	90.8%
MIA 103, MIN 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.34,0.39,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.24,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.43,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.4,0.47,0.72,0.85,0.58,0	90.5%