NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	109		Excitement	9.1 [167]		MVP	Andrew Wiggins (GSW): +16.6%
Miami Heat	116		Comeback	6.4 [239]		LVP	Klay Thompson (GSW): -15.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Wiggins	0.17	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.15	0.01	-0.00	12	81%	0.27	1	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Ty Jerome	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	4	80%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevon Looney	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Wiseman	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Stephen Curry	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.04	0.02	14	70%	0.12	5	-0.14	5	100%	0.04
Moses Moody	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
JaMychal Green	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	11	39%	-0.01	1	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Jordan Poole	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.11	0.00	-0.03	10	37%	0.04	5	-0.12	4	50%	-0.03
Draymond Green	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	0.02	-0.10	0.01	3	83%	0.02	1	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.16	-0.03	-0.14	-0.01	19	49%	-0.06	4	-0.10	1	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.08	-0.00	15	58%	0.19	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.03
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.00	0.00	17	63%	0.17	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Kyle Lowry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.07	-0.01	10	65%	0.16	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,0.07,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.10	0.01	17	53%	0.19	3	-0.08	9	100%	0.06
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.07	0.01	4	75%	0.13	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	-0.01	0.00	10	85%	0.26	2	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.01	4	62%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.06	0.02	7	29%	-0.09	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.5	31.2	14.4	31.7	2.3	34.6	142.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +17.8%

MIA +20.3%

GSW -8.6%

MIA +18.6%

MIA +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIA	NBA	GSW	MIA	NBA
this game	13.6	15.8	14.4	111.2	118.4	113.4
season	13.9	15.1		114.1	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.1		112.1	112.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.3	12.0	13.2	15.3	13.6
MIA	17.0	15.2	15.6	15.4	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevon Looney	47	46	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.06	10	-17	27	13.5	13.7	-0.23	16.7	14.9	1.73
Moses Moody	31	30	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.16	-8	1	-9	14.7	13.1	1.53	14.8	16.2	-1.42
James Wiseman	18	18	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.12	-8	1	-9	16.2	13.0	3.17	15.2	15.9	-0.72
Klay Thompson	63	62	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.33	6	-13	19	12.7	15.3	-2.66	16.5	14.5	1.94
Draymond Green	65	66	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.36	7	-14	21	12.6	15.7	-3.16	16.3	14.7	1.54
Ty Jerome	28	29	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.02	-8	1	-9	14.4	13.3	1.11	14.2	16.4	-2.15
Andrew Wiggins	71	72	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.54	8	-15	23	12.9	15.5	-2.60	16.3	14.3	2.02
Stephen Curry	69	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.41	3	-10	13	13.3	14.5	-1.26	16.3	14.3	2.01
JaMychal Green	37	36	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	0.00	-22	15	-37	15.3	12.6	2.63	14.0	16.8	-2.82
Jordan Poole	61	60	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.09	-23	16	-39	14.4	12.3	2.15	14.9	17.1	-2.12

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gabe Vincent	61	62	1.08	-0.58	1.67	0.23	29	-22	51	15.2	16.6	-1.35	14.6	11.9	2.67
Duncan Robinson	51	53	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.27	19	-12	31	15.0	16.6	-1.57	14.9	12.2	2.69
Bam Adebayo	75	76	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.41	0	7	-7	16.5	13.5	2.98	13.2	15.0	-1.76
Kyle Lowry	74	73	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.40	-3	10	-13	16.4	13.6	2.82	13.4	14.2	-0.76
Jimmy Butler	76	75	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.26	2	5	-3	15.9	15.3	0.62	13.3	14.7	-1.45
Dewayne Dedmon	23	22	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.12	7	0	7	13.5	16.5	-2.98	15.0	13.2	1.76
Max Strus	71	69	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.12	5	2	3	14.6	18.7	-4.12	13.1	14.9	-1.84
Tyler Herro	19	18	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.09	-6	13	-19	18.2	15.2	2.98	14.3	13.5	0.79
Caleb Martin	40	42	-0.47	0.97	-1.45	0.05	-18	25	-43	16.8	15.0	1.81	12.2	14.7	-2.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.53,0.6,0.7,0.66,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.54,0.46,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.19,0.38,0.29,0.24,0.37,0.47,0.53,0.33,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 98, PHX 105	0.5,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.3,0.3,0.43,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.4,0.4,0.61,0.63,0.77,0.95,1	91.0%
NJN 105, DET 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.55,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.29,0.23,0.24,0.23,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.38,0.22,0.29,0.27,0.36,0.46,0.67,0.62,0.79,0.77,0.96,1	90.8%
MIN 88, POR 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.72,0.71,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.59,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.38,0.44,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.47,0.6,0.53,0.71,0.59,0.98,1	90.3%