NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	114		Excitement	7.4 [368]		MVP	Max Strus (MIA): +57.5%
Toronto Raptors	109		Comeback	3.8 [212]		LVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): -19.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Max Strus	0.58	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.36,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.58	0.25	0.31	-0.01	10	105%	0.58	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Victor Oladipo	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.09	0.14	0.01	11	87%	0.35	5	-0.13	2	50%	-0.00
Kyle Lowry	0.13	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.07	0.02	8	70%	0.17	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Omer Yurtseven	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.04	0.08	-0.00	4	75%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	6	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Markieff Morris	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.01	0.01	10	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	12	48%	-0.02	2	-0.04	9	44%	-0.05
Tyler Herro	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2	-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	16	53%	0.03	8	-0.23	2	50%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.09	0.05	18	67%	0.27	4	-0.11	7	86%	0.01
Scottie Barnes	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.05	-0.01	16	56%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Fred VanVleet	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.01	0.01	17	64%	0.21	5	-0.11	11	100%	0.06
Gary Trent Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.05	0.03	13	63%	0.15	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.00
Armoni Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khem Birch	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Boucher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	10	36%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Precious Achiuwa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.06
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	2	25%	-0.08	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	25.2	14.8	27.9	2.5	39.5	137.5
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +80.1%

TOR -17.2%

TOR -8.7%

TOR -1.7%

TOR -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	13.9	15.7	14.5	116.3	112.4	110.8
season	14.9	14.9		112.0	111.3
opponent	14.8	14.9		109.9	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.2	13.2	14.0	14.2	13.9
TOR	14.6	15.6	18.1	14.6	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Max Strus	59	61	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.47	11	-6	17	14.0	13.8	0.20	15.0	16.7	-1.73
Kyle Lowry	68	69	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.44	8	-3	11	14.2	13.1	1.14	15.9	15.2	0.68
Bam Adebayo	74	73	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.35	11	-6	17	14.0	13.5	0.57	15.5	16.0	-0.51
Tyler Herro	74	72	0.54	-0.03	0.57	0.33	7	-2	9	13.5	15.2	-1.75	16.2	14.1	2.07
Victor Oladipo	58	57	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.19	5	0	5	12.8	15.4	-2.56	15.5	15.9	-0.49
Markieff Morris	51	51	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.02	6	-1	7	13.9	13.9	0.07	16.2	15.1	1.09
Duncan Robinson	27	25	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.02	-5	10	-15	14.7	13.6	1.13	15.3	15.8	-0.46
Omer Yurtseven	24	24	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.01	-6	11	-17	13.5	14.0	-0.57	16.0	15.5	0.51
Caleb Martin	55	53	-0.36	0.86	-1.23	-0.01	-12	17	-29	14.6	13.0	1.66	15.3	16.1	-0.79

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Khem Birch	27	27	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.05	3	-8	11	15.1	15.9	-0.76	14.8	13.5	1.28
Armoni Brooks	9	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-4	3	18.0	15.4	2.58	11.0	14.2	-3.22
Precious Achiuwa	40	41	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	-3	1	16.2	15.3	0.96	13.6	14.1	-0.44
Chris Boucher	45	47	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-6	7	14.9	16.3	-1.36	12.5	15.1	-2.61
Scottie Barnes	71	71	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.32	-2	-3	1	15.5	16.0	-0.52	13.9	13.8	0.15
Thaddeus Young	35	35	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.21	-6	1	-7	16.8	15.0	1.74	14.8	13.4	1.46
Gary Trent Jr.	88	88	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	-1	-3	15.4	18.0	-2.58	14.2	11.0	3.22
Pascal Siakam	88	88	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	-1	-3	15.4	18.0	-2.58	14.2	11.0	3.22
Fred VanVleet	82	83	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.32	-10	5	-15	15.9	14.5	1.33	13.7	14.9	-1.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.61,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.72,0.59,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.7,0.41,0.33,0.2,0.16,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 117, SAC 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.73,0.63,0.66,0.74,0.7,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.38,0.53,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.11,0.01,0,0,0	92.4%
NJN 79, BOS 74	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.36,0.09,0.04,0	92.2%
BOS 101, NJN 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.35,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.31,0.15,0.03,0.01,0	92.0%