NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	107		Excitement	7.4 [369]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +44.0%
Denver Nuggets	113		Comeback	1.8 [1041]		LVP	Tre Mann (OKC): -18.9%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindy Waters III	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.05	0.00	11	64%	0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Wiggins	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.05	-0.02	11	43%	0.08	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Isaiah Roby	0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	-0.04	0.00	7	86%	0.17	1	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Olivier Sarr	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aleksej Pokusevski	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.15,0.01,0.01	0.09	-0.07	0.01	8	77%	0.16	2	-0.15	6	83%	0.01
Darius Bazley	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	8	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vit Krejci	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Theo Maledon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.11,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05	0.00	-0.04	0.02	13	62%	0.18	5	-0.23	6	100%	0.05
Tre Mann	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19,-0.19	-0.08	-0.10	0.00	15	45%	-0.04	5	-0.15	3	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.44	0.44	0.26	0.20	0.02	15	87%	0.50	3	-0.06	10	90%	0.06
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14	0.14	0.03	0.10	-0.00	6	58%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.02,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.05	0.01	17	56%	0.16	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.06
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.01	4	70%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davon Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	4	25%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bones Hyland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	3	75%	0.06	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.02
JaMychal Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	9	40%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Austin Rivers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.01	-0.15	-0.01	16	53%	-0.05	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.0	1.0	25.2	14.5	25.5	2.4	30.2	127.9
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC -8.9%

DEN +20.1%

DEN +5.5%

DEN +34.1%

OKC -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DEN	NBA	OKC	DEN	NBA
this game	14.2	13.9	14.5	103.9	110.8	110.8
season	14.4	14.8		103.2	113.4
opponent	14.4	14.4		111.6	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	15.1	12.9	14.0	14.8	14.2
DEN	12.5	15.9	11.3	16.5	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vit Krejci	57	57	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.13	2	-8	10	13.5	15.0	-1.41	15.0	12.5	2.52
Aaron Wiggins	65	65	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.10	1	-7	8	13.0	16.2	-3.18	14.5	12.9	1.57
Olivier Sarr	40	39	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-5	4	13.5	14.6	-1.14	15.3	13.1	2.24
Lindy Waters III	54	53	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.21	1	-7	8	13.4	15.0	-1.54	14.9	12.8	2.13
Aleksej Pokusevski	73	73	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.36	4	-10	14	13.5	15.8	-2.34	14.5	12.6	1.87
Darius Bazley	30	29	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.04	-11	5	-16	15.7	13.5	2.20	12.1	14.6	-2.54
Isaiah Roby	55	54	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.17	-8	2	-10	15.6	12.6	3.02	12.5	15.5	-3.02
Tre Mann	71	71	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.39	-5	-1	-4	14.6	13.2	1.39	13.3	15.3	-2.01
Theo Maledon	70	69	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.22	-13	7	-20	15.2	11.9	3.33	12.8	16.2	-3.34

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gordon	75	77	0.84	-0.34	1.19	0.14	24	-18	42	12.4	18.2	-5.85	15.5	10.4	5.07
Nikola Jokic	76	77	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.20	19	-13	32	12.7	17.6	-4.91	15.2	11.2	3.94
Will Barton	78	77	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.31	11	-5	16	12.8	17.7	-4.95	14.5	13.1	1.42
Monte Morris	66	65	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.34	5	1	4	13.4	14.9	-1.49	14.7	13.3	1.44
Austin Rivers	57	57	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.29	0	6	-6	15.0	12.6	2.44	13.7	14.7	-0.98
Jeff Green	43	44	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.05	3	3	0	13.1	14.5	-1.47	14.5	13.9	0.53
Bones Hyland	39	42	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	5	-4	14.8	13.3	1.50	13.6	14.5	-0.90
JaMychal Green	17	17	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.03	0	6	-6	16.1	13.5	2.64	12.4	14.5	-2.18
Bryn Forbes	19	20	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.04	-9	15	-24	19.4	12.7	6.76	11.4	14.8	-3.44
Davon Reed	14	13	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	0.09	-11	17	-28	16.7	13.5	3.24	11.1	14.6	-3.55
DeMarcus Cousins	26	26	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	0.13	-13	19	-32	17.6	12.7	4.91	11.2	15.2	-3.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.69,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.75,0.74,0.69,0.61,0.66,0.73,0.62,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.94,0.92,0.9,0.88,0.79,0.72,0.63,0.74,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 97, CHI 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.78,0.77,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.73,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.78,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.89,0.87,0.87,0.75,0.86,0.74,0.79,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.71,0.57,0.92,1	92.6%
GSW 102, MIN 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.79,0.72,0.72,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.86,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.85,0.8,0.72,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.68,0.72,1	92.0%
SEA 91, LAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.82,0.78,0.75,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.79,0.84,0.75,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.68,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.96,1	91.9%