NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	107		Excitement	7.6 [335]		MVP	Josh Richardson (BOS): +31.2%
Boston Celtics	113		Comeback	1.3 [1016]		LVP	Jaylen Brown (BOS): -9.5%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMelo Ball	0.22	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.22	0.12	0.10	0.00	24	62%	0.30	3	-0.08	13	77%	0.06
Terry Rozier	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,0.11,0.11	0.01	0.12	0.02	22	52%	0.21	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Washington	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.18,0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.00	11	73%	0.19	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Cody Martin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Richards	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.01	-0.03	5	38%	0.02	3	-0.05	3	33%	-0.04
Miles Bridges	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	8	32%	-0.04	1	-0.01	3	67%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.06	-0.03	12	47%	0.01	2	-0.07	8	100%	0.05

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.20	0.10	-0.01	12	88%	0.33	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Smart	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.23,0.3	0.30	0.13	0.16	-0.00	11	79%	0.35	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.09
Grant Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.06	-0.00	7	80%	0.18	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.17	0.17	-0.02	0.19	-0.01	16	50%	0.24	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.11
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	7	43%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Williams III	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.02	0.03	6	83%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	8	37%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.13	0.04	0.00	15	47%	0.09	7	-0.19	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.3	28.4	14.4	25.4	1.8	38.2	133.2
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +35.4%

BOS +21.6%

CHA -3.8%

CHA -2.7%

CHA -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	BOS	NBA	CHA	BOS	NBA
this game	12.9	15.6	14.5	104.9	113.0	110.8
season	14.0	14.9		112.9	112.2
opponent	14.7	14.5		105.7	112.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	14.8	12.1	13.8	11.0	12.9
BOS	12.9	15.2	15.6	19.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cody Martin	35	34	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.16	6	-12	18	12.8	13.0	-0.26	16.7	15.0	1.63
Mason Plumlee	61	61	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.14	5	-11	16	13.0	12.8	0.23	16.6	14.0	2.66
Nick Richards	18	16	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.05	-13	7	-20	14.2	12.7	1.56	13.8	15.9	-2.13
Kelly Oubre Jr.	71	70	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.34	-2	-4	2	12.2	14.7	-2.49	16.1	14.5	1.62
P.J. Washington	89	88	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.38	-2	-4	2	13.3	10.4	2.93	15.4	17.3	-1.97
Terry Rozier	86	84	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.34	-5	-1	-4	12.9	13.0	-0.07	15.1	18.3	-3.23
LaMelo Ball	83	82	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.15	-13	7	-20	13.0	12.6	0.45	15.7	15.2	0.46
Miles Bridges	72	70	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.18	-12	6	-18	12.9	13.1	-0.18	14.6	17.8	-3.19

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Williams III	74	77	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.24	9	-3	12	14.5	18.6	-4.07	13.2	12.1	1.14
Jayson Tatum	68	70	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.20	9	-3	12	15.5	15.8	-0.31	13.4	11.9	1.51
Grant Williams	41	41	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.24	7	-1	8	16.3	15.1	1.17	12.5	13.2	-0.76
Marcus Smart	71	71	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.22	5	1	4	14.9	17.2	-2.31	12.8	13.2	-0.32
Josh Richardson	63	63	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.19	3	3	0	16.7	13.6	3.10	12.3	13.9	-1.63
Jaylen Brown	80	82	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.36	-4	10	-14	15.3	16.9	-1.69	12.9	13.0	-0.14
Dennis Schroder	33	35	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	4	-2	17.2	14.8	2.41	12.6	13.1	-0.56
Al Horford	70	71	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.10	-1	7	-8	15.7	15.4	0.29	13.3	12.1	1.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.61,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.67,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.52,0.63,0.67,0.75,0.87,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.78,0.88,0.94,0.98,0.95,0.77,0.59,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 108, BKN 110	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.68,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.65,0.78,0.69,0.74,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.97,0.93,0.85,0.58,1	91.7%
GSW 92, UTA 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.51,0.58,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.9,0.93,0.85,0.96,1	91.6%
SAS 101, DAL 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.62,0.65,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.68,0.64,0.75,0.87,0.98,0.93,0.84,0.85,1	91.6%