NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	92		Excitement	6.4 [508]		MVP	Scott Padgett (UTA): +13.6%
Utah Jazz	101		Comeback	1.2 [1082]		LVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): -21.0%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Oscar Torres	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	5	89%	0.13	2	-0.06	8	75%	0.01
Guy Rucker	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	0.03	-0.01	0.03	7	75%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jiri Welsch	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dean Oliver	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	5	67%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Adonal Foyle	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Gilbert Arenas	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.06	-0.01	15	54%	0.04	3	-0.10	5	80%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	13	59%	0.04	7	-0.17	13	85%	0.04
Jason Richardson	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.18	-0.04	-0.01	15	24%	-0.15	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.05	-0.00	7	79%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.02	0.02	7	71%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Stockton	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.01	0.03	8	75%	0.08	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Karl Malone	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	26	46%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.07,0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.04	-0.01	8	50%	0.06	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.01
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jarron Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	8	35%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	6	25%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	15	38%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.13	-0.04	0.00	9	32%	-0.10	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.4	27.4	15.5	29.3	2.3	28.4	130.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +24.2%

GSW -16.4%

UTA +21.9%

UTA +20.9%

GSW -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	UTA	NBA	GSW	UTA	NBA
this game	14.1	17.4	15.5	100.0	111.0	101.6
season	14.6	16.3		105.3	103.1
opponent	15.3	15.1		101.1	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.6	13.1	13.8	13.7	14.1
UTA	14.4	15.7	18.9	21.6	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dean Oliver	1	0	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-9	9	6.0	14.2	-8.15	0.0	17.4	-17.43
Oscar Torres	47	46	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.25	7	-16	23	12.6	15.6	-2.92	19.4	15.4	4.06
Jiri Welsch	7	7	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.01	-2	-7	5	16.1	13.9	2.25	13.1	17.8	-4.64
Guy Rucker	1	1	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-8	7	6.0	14.2	-8.15	0.0	17.6	-17.62
Troy Murphy	55	54	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.32	9	-18	27	13.4	15.1	-1.65	19.3	14.8	4.50
Jason Richardson	60	60	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-10	11	14.5	13.2	1.39	16.9	18.5	-1.65
Antawn Jamison	75	75	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.18	0	-9	9	13.9	14.9	-1.00	17.1	19.2	-2.13
Mike Dunleavy	19	19	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.01	-11	2	-13	13.8	14.1	-0.28	16.8	17.6	-0.81
Gilbert Arenas	91	91	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.21	-9	0	-9	14.2	6.0	8.15	17.4	0.0	17.43
Erick Dampier	67	67	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.14	-13	4	-17	14.3	13.5	0.75	17.8	16.5	1.26
Adonal Foyle	37	35	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	0.11	-26	17	-43	16.0	12.7	3.28	14.8	19.1	-4.27

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	57	56	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.03	16	-7	23	16.8	18.4	-1.62	14.3	13.7	0.61
Matt Harpring	57	56	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.13	10	-1	11	18.5	15.6	2.99	14.4	13.6	0.84
Mark Jackson	33	35	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.05	11	-2	13	17.5	17.4	0.14	16.3	12.7	3.58
Karl Malone	75	75	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.21	4	5	-1	17.8	15.8	1.96	13.3	17.4	-4.03
Jarron Collins	39	40	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.06	8	1	7	17.3	17.5	-0.17	15.4	13.0	2.36
Scott Padgett	42	43	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.13	5	4	1	17.8	17.1	0.66	13.8	14.3	-0.43
John Stockton	58	57	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.19	-2	11	-13	17.4	17.5	-0.14	12.7	16.3	-3.58
Greg Ostertag	26	26	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.07	1	8	-7	16.0	18.0	-2.00	14.5	13.9	0.66
Andrei Kirilenko	34	36	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.11	-1	10	-11	15.6	18.5	-2.99	13.6	14.4	-0.84
Calbert Cheaney	34	36	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.20	-7	16	-23	18.4	16.8	1.62	13.7	14.3	-0.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.51,0.58,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.9,0.93,0.85,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 96, CHI 101	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.59,0.75,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,0.93,0.86,0.96,0.98,1,1	94.5%
TOR 105, DAL 113	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.79,0.78,0.72,0.75,0.66,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.68,0.72,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.66,0.81,0.75,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.96,0.98,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9,0.99,1	94.5%
MIN 77, IND 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,1,1,1	94.2%