NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	108		Excitement	9.2 [112]		MVP	Chuma Okeke (ORL): +27.1%
Orlando Magic	110		Comeback	2.9 [242]		LVP	Maxi Kleber (DAL): -67.0%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marquese Chriss	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.07	-0.00	12	54%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Luka Doncic	0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	0.00	22	68%	0.32	6	-0.22	6	67%	-0.05
Jalen Brunson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.01	-0.01	11	65%	0.10	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Josh Green	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	6	79%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Trey Burke	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Frank Ntilikina	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Bullock	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	10	48%	0.05	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Dwight Powell	-0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	2	100%	0.09	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.03
Dorian Finney-Smith	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	9	50%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.10
Maxi Kleber	-0.67	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.67	-0.06	-0.60	0.01	8	37%	-0.44	2	-0.23	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chuma Okeke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.15	0.12	-0.00	10	86%	0.29	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Moritz Wagner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.07	0.00	7	78%	0.20	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.03	0.00	5	100%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wendell Carter Jr.	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.01	10	58%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.08
Mo Bamba	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.07	-0.05	0.01	6	83%	0.09	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Franz Wagner	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.08,0,0,0,-0.11,-0.06	-0.06	0.02	-0.07	0.01	15	60%	0.11	3	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Cole Anthony	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.1,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	16	43%	0.00	2	-0.10	5	80%	-0.00
Jalen Suggs	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.13	-0.01	-0.01	10	25%	-0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	5	36%	-0.02	4	-0.12	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	1.7	27.3	14.8	26.0	2.4	32.3	128.0
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +42.7%

ORL +5.8%

DAL -8.2%

ORL +10.1%

DAL -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	ORL	NBA	DAL	ORL	NBA
this game	14.2	15.2	14.5	110.2	112.2	110.8
season	15.6	14.4		112.4	103.4
opponent	14.4	14.5		111.5	109.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.6	15.3	12.8	15.2	14.2
ORL	14.6	12.9	17.2	16.1	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marquese Chriss	40	41	0.27	-0.77	1.04	0.12	5	-7	12	12.4	15.5	-3.07	15.2	15.2	0.04
Dwight Powell	44	42	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-1	0	15.7	13.0	2.62	16.1	14.5	1.57
Josh Green	47	49	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.03	-3	1	-4	12.6	15.7	-3.11	14.2	16.1	-1.86
Luka Doncic	77	77	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.46	11	-13	24	13.4	17.1	-3.73	15.5	14.1	1.31
Frank Ntilikina	6	6	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.09	-8	6	-14	20.8	13.8	7.05	13.0	15.3	-2.32
Trey Burke	8	9	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	2	-6	15.4	14.1	1.26	10.7	15.6	-4.96
Dorian Finney-Smith	79	78	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.40	6	-8	14	14.0	15.1	-1.11	16.1	11.6	4.49
Reggie Bullock	65	66	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.43	-1	-1	0	14.0	14.7	-0.77	14.7	16.2	-1.46
Jalen Brunson	70	67	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.38	-5	3	-8	15.1	12.0	3.15	15.4	14.7	0.73
Maxi Kleber	54	55	-0.95	0.45	-1.40	-0.65	-10	8	-18	15.5	12.7	2.82	14.9	15.6	-0.69

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mo Bamba	47	47	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.44	5	-3	8	15.6	14.8	0.77	15.1	13.4	1.67
Chuma Okeke	52	51	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.44	4	-2	6	14.9	15.4	-0.49	13.8	14.7	-0.86
Wendell Carter Jr.	66	67	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.46	-1	3	-4	15.9	13.7	2.25	14.1	14.5	-0.35
Franz Wagner	62	64	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.47	-2	4	-6	15.6	14.4	1.24	14.1	14.4	-0.35
Jalen Suggs	65	67	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.15	6	-4	10	14.7	16.2	-1.47	15.1	12.3	2.77
Cole Anthony	64	63	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.33	-3	5	-8	16.1	13.4	2.65	13.7	15.2	-1.58
Moritz Wagner	32	31	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	-1	4	13.7	15.9	-2.25	14.5	14.1	0.35
Gary Harris	58	57	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.19	-4	6	-10	14.3	16.5	-2.24	13.5	15.1	-1.60
Terrence Ross	44	43	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.25	2	0	2	15.0	15.3	-0.36	14.3	14.2	0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.28,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.78,0.72,0.73,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.82,0.75,0.71,0.85,0.64,0.53,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 102, IND 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.33,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.67,0.74,0.68,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.56,0.58,0.73,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.53,0.47,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.43,0.42,1	89.7%
SAS 81, HOU 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.39,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.41,0.49,0.54,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.68,0.65,0.7,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.81,0.74,0.6,0.53,0.45,0.79,0.86,0.62,1	89.1%
OKC 105, SAS 109	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.61,0.64,0.75,0.8,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.72,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.63,0.47,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.71,0.55,0.58,1	89.1%