NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	81		Excitement	8.6 [142]		MVP	Yao Ming (HOU): +21.1%
Houston Rockets	83		Comeback	2.0 [536]		LVP	Luis Scola (HOU): -28.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.03	-0.01	13	66%	0.25	2	-0.12	6	83%	0.02
Ime Udoka	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	2	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	15	47%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Bruce Bowen	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0	0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.22	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.06,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.08,-0.22	-0.08	-0.13	0.02	21	47%	-0.10	5	-0.12	9	44%	-0.13

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yao Ming	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.29,0.29,0.21	0.21	0.12	0.10	0.00	10	70%	0.24	1	-0.03	10	70%	-0.16
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	4	70%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.00	4	70%	0.09	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	0.00	4	37%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	6	42%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	12	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.00	15	50%	0.11	4	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01
Charles Hayes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	6	0%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.10	0.01	11	41%	-0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.10	-0.19	-0.00	11	23%	-0.28	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.7	28.8	15.5	22.4	2.5	32.4	129.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -32.6%

HOU +6.9%

HOU +55.8%

HOU +15.3%

HOU +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	16.5	18.2	15.4	97.6	100.0	105.7
season	16.5	16.2		104.7	104.6
opponent	15.2	15.3		100.3	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.8	14.6	17.6	16.0	16.5
HOU	15.0	19.7	17.6	21.1	18.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ime Udoka	23	22	0.29	-0.79	1.08	-0.00	10	-12	22	15.5	16.9	-1.41	19.3	17.8	1.45
Robert Horry	9	10	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.12	5	-7	12	15.8	16.6	-0.80	21.9	17.7	4.20
Matt Bonner	18	18	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.18	3	-5	8	14.5	17.0	-2.55	18.3	18.2	0.16
Brent Barry	9	8	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.06	-2	0	-2	14.4	16.7	-2.30	19.2	18.1	1.16
Jacque Vaughn	22	23	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.07	-2	0	-2	14.8	17.1	-2.34	17.5	18.5	-1.01
Fabricio Oberto	53	50	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.42	7	-9	16	17.4	15.0	2.39	18.9	17.2	1.65
Bruce Bowen	51	54	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.06	-6	4	-10	17.1	15.6	1.47	18.0	18.6	-0.53
Michael Finley	34	32	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.01	-9	7	-16	18.1	15.4	2.65	16.5	19.3	-2.77
Francisco Elson	11	11	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.16	-4	2	-6	16.2	16.5	-0.36	13.5	18.9	-5.48
Tony Parker	61	60	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.30	0	-2	2	17.1	14.8	2.34	18.5	17.5	1.01
Tim Duncan	67	68	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	2	-6	16.6	16.2	0.30	18.4	17.4	0.98
Manu Ginobili	57	59	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.54	-8	6	-14	15.7	18.2	-2.47	18.2	18.2	0.05

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	59	58	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.50	6	-4	10	18.8	16.7	2.16	15.7	18.2	-2.50
Rafer Alston	60	61	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.40	6	-4	10	17.1	21.2	-4.11	16.9	15.5	1.41
Yao Ming	68	69	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.29	9	-7	16	17.6	21.0	-3.41	16.6	15.9	0.77
Tracy McGrady	50	50	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.22	3	-1	4	17.4	19.5	-2.12	15.1	18.6	-3.46
Bonzi Wells	30	30	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.00	10	-8	18	16.4	19.2	-2.77	17.7	15.8	1.89
Luis Scola	39	39	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.29	-1	3	-4	18.6	17.9	0.68	15.3	17.6	-2.33
Luther Head	36	37	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.18	-3	5	-8	18.9	17.6	1.31	18.1	15.2	2.81
Charles Hayes	30	30	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.18	-7	9	-16	17.7	18.5	-0.84	18.9	15.1	3.82
Aaron Brooks	23	22	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	6	-10	21.2	17.1	4.11	15.5	16.9	-1.41
Carl Landry	20	19	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.10	-9	11	-20	22.0	17.0	5.00	15.7	16.7	-1.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.39,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.41,0.49,0.54,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.68,0.65,0.7,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.81,0.74,0.6,0.53,0.45,0.79,0.86,0.62,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 90, CLE 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.68,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.79,0.85,0.74,0.65,0.72,0.61,0.84,0.85,0.91,1	91.4%
CHI 98, BOS 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.76,0.84,0.79,0.65,0.54,0.76,0.71,0.78,0.92,1	90.8%
MEM 103, PHX 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.35,0.46,0.31,0.55,0.85,0.91,1	90.5%