NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	121		Excitement	13.2 [11]		MVP	Chris Duarte (IND): +43.9%
Golden State Warriors	117		Comeback	13.0 [97]		LVP	Andre Iguodala (GSW): -37.2%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Duarte	0.44	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.26,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.44	0.20	0.24	0.01	16	73%	0.44	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Justin Holiday	0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.23	0.03	0.19	-0.02	13	62%	0.32	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21	0.08	0.11	-0.02	5	70%	0.23	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.03
Keifer Sykes	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,0.09,0.06	-0.05	0.11	-0.01	12	42%	0.17	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Jackson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.01	12	47%	0.04	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.12
Lance Stephenson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	1	100%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Duane Washington Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.05	-0.00	7	57%	0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.04	-0.10	-0.00	10	60%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Goga Bitadze	-0.09	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.04	0.02	12	45%	-0.04	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.05
Oshae Brissett	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.13	-0.07	-0.00	7	11%	-0.18	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.09

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.31,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.45,0.39,0.34	0.34	0.17	0.17	0.00	27	62%	0.41	2	-0.07	9	100%	0.17
Damion Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.06	0.00	5	75%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Nemanja Bjelica	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	5	80%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	55%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.05
Jonathan Kuminga	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	0	83%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Kevon Looney	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.07	0.00	6	81%	0.13	5	-0.20	4	75%	0.00
Jordan Poole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	7	28%	-0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Juan Toscano-Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,0,0,0,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18	-0.18	-0.03	-0.15	0.00	5	50%	-0.06	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.10	-0.14	-0.01	17	35%	-0.13	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.34,-0.34,-0.21,-0.3,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.09	-0.18	-0.00	15	35%	-0.22	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.14,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.33,-0.33,-0.37	-0.37	-0.06	-0.31	0.00	2	67%	-0.08	4	-0.29	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	30.2	2.8	33.5	16.6	29.9	3.5	41.3	2.4	18.6	178.9
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	2.3	15.4	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +95.2%

GSW -14.8%

GSW -39.9%

IND +25.3%

GSW -15.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	GSW	NBA	IND	GSW	NBA
this game	14.4	14.0	14.5	107.1	105.4	110.8
season	14.4	14.2		111.4	112.2
opponent	14.9	14.7		106.7	115.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
IND	14.0	13.6	17.0	13.8	13.9	14.4
GSW	13.2	14.2	15.7	13.4	13.4	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justin Holiday	75	71	0.99	-0.49	1.49	0.52	16	-12	28	14.3	14.7	-0.48	14.4	13.3	1.09
Oshae Brissett	49	46	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.84	-2	6	-8	14.0	14.7	-0.73	13.1	14.6	-1.51
Keifer Sykes	63	63	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.39	13	-9	22	15.2	13.4	1.86	14.7	13.1	1.57
Chris Duarte	82	80	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.47	10	-6	16	14.5	14.2	0.26	14.3	13.2	1.04
Torrey Craig	74	71	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.27	12	-8	20	14.0	15.2	-1.17	14.6	12.9	1.64
Goga Bitadze	65	63	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	1	2	15.0	13.6	1.38	14.6	13.2	1.38
Lance Stephenson	38	38	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.12	-2	6	-8	14.3	14.5	-0.23	13.4	14.3	-0.88
Isaiah Jackson	40	41	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	-0.22	-6	10	-16	14.1	14.6	-0.53	13.3	14.3	-1.00
Duane Washington Jr.	41	41	-0.46	0.96	-1.42	-0.08	-13	17	-30	13.8	14.8	-1.00	12.9	14.6	-1.70
Jeremy Lamb	38	41	-0.49	0.99	-1.48	-0.17	-11	15	-26	14.7	14.3	0.48	13.0	14.6	-1.58

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nemanja Bjelica	31	29	0.29	-0.79	1.09	0.09	7	-11	18	13.1	14.3	-1.17	15.2	14.1	1.11
Andre Iguodala	67	69	0.25	-0.75	1.00	-0.22	16	-20	36	12.6	16.1	-3.58	15.3	13.0	2.39
Damion Lee	29	30	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-6	8	13.9	14.0	-0.10	14.4	14.4	-0.07
Gary Payton II	38	37	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.09	-2	-2	0	13.1	14.4	-1.32	14.8	14.2	0.51
Juan Toscano-Anderson	30	30	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.22	1	-5	6	13.6	14.1	-0.47	15.2	14.1	1.02
Klay Thompson	49	53	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	0	-4	14.0	14.0	0.05	13.1	15.6	-2.52
Jordan Poole	50	51	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.32	-1	-3	2	14.6	13.5	1.10	14.8	14.1	0.71
Jonathan Kuminga	33	32	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.10	-16	12	-28	15.5	13.3	2.19	12.8	15.0	-2.24
Kevon Looney	57	60	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.22	-9	5	-14	14.9	13.0	1.86	14.2	14.6	-0.42
Stephen Curry	92	93	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.43	-4	0	-4	13.9	14.2	-0.22	14.7	13.0	1.72
Andrew Wiggins	79	81	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.47	-10	6	-16	14.4	12.8	1.59	14.0	15.5	-1.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.62,0.47,0.62,0.73,0.59,0.41,0.47,0.19,0.29,0.57,0.27,0.54,0.61,0.79,0.43,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 118, MIA 115	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.8,0.81,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.25,0.29,0.43,0.27,0.54,0.69,0.45,0.32,0.15,0	89.7%
NJN 98, CLE 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.56,0.5,0.62,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.66,0.42,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.32,0.27,0	88.5%
LAL 120, IND 118	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.54,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.52,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.4,0.53,0.63,0.67,0.26,0.46,0.25,0.36,0.33,0.27,0	87.3%