NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	7.2 [410]		MVP	Franz Wagner (ORL): +25.8%
Orlando Magic	108		Comeback	8.8 [64]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -23.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monte Morris	0.18	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.28,0.28,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.10	-0.01	15	69%	0.27	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Facundo Campazzo	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.00	3	87%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Zeke Nnaji	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.03	0.01	3	112%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron Gordon	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.02	0.00	12	61%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Jeff Green	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	64%	0.07	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Will Barton	0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	13	50%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
JaMychal Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Markus Howard	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	5	30%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.24	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.24	-0.11	-0.15	-0.02	19	42%	-0.05	5	-0.19	5	80%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Franz Wagner	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.05	0.22	0.01	9	75%	0.34	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Wendell Carter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.24	0.24	0.13	0.11	0.00	11	78%	0.27	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Moritz Wagner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.07	0.00	8	63%	0.14	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Cole Anthony	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.1,0.17,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.02	21	53%	0.11	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.00	7	62%	0.12	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.03
Gary Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	10	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
R.J. Hampton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.06
Mychal Mulder	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chuma Okeke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Mo Bamba	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	9	50%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.4	24.4	15.4	29.5	2.4	31.6	132.8
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +36.1%

ORL +4.4%

DEN -5.2%

ORL +12.0%

ORL +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ORL	NBA	DEN	ORL	NBA
this game	15.5	13.4	14.5	104.0	108.0	110.8
season	14.8	14.4		113.4	103.4
opponent	14.4	14.4		111.5	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.1	14.6	17.7	17.1	15.5
ORL	14.0	13.7	12.5	13.4	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Markus Howard	27	28	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.02	-2	-3	1	17.1	14.9	2.22	12.7	13.7	-0.98
Zeke Nnaji	37	38	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-3	1	16.8	14.8	1.99	12.1	14.2	-2.08
Facundo Campazzo	55	56	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.08	-6	1	-7	16.8	14.0	2.76	12.8	14.2	-1.40
JaMychal Green	23	24	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.04	-7	2	-9	17.2	15.0	2.13	12.1	13.8	-1.70
Nikola Jokic	76	76	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.40	2	-7	9	15.0	17.2	-2.13	13.8	12.1	1.70
Aaron Gordon	78	78	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.39	0	-5	5	14.8	18.3	-3.55	13.7	12.3	1.41
Jeff Green	60	60	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.37	-3	-2	-1	14.7	16.8	-2.16	14.2	12.2	1.95
Monte Morris	72	72	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.38	-3	-2	-1	14.9	17.1	-2.22	13.7	12.7	0.98
Will Barton	67	68	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.40	-4	-1	-3	15.5	15.7	-0.18	13.6	13.0	0.57

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Harris	72	71	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.46	8	-3	11	13.6	12.9	0.78	14.9	17.1	-2.19
Mo Bamba	56	56	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.45	8	-3	11	14.1	12.6	1.48	14.7	16.7	-1.97
Franz Wagner	69	69	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.43	8	-3	11	13.6	13.0	0.66	15.1	16.4	-1.29
Cole Anthony	77	76	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.43	7	-2	9	13.5	13.1	0.38	15.0	17.3	-2.36
Wendell Carter Jr.	68	68	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.46	1	4	-3	13.9	12.4	1.44	14.9	16.9	-1.99
Moritz Wagner	32	31	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.11	4	1	3	12.4	13.9	-1.44	16.9	14.9	1.99
Mychal Mulder	9	9	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.05	-1	6	-7	12.2	13.5	-1.32	18.9	15.2	3.69
R.J. Hampton	24	24	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.06	-2	7	-9	12.6	13.7	-1.05	17.8	14.8	2.98
Chuma Okeke	44	43	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.10	-3	8	-11	12.6	14.1	-1.48	16.7	14.7	1.97
Terrence Ross	49	48	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.16	-5	10	-15	13.3	13.5	-0.26	16.1	15.0	1.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.3,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.18,0.16,0.1,0.16,0.21,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.24,0.31,0.29,0.21,0.34,0.19,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.15,0.22,0.45,0.37,0.43,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 94, UTA 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.42,0.36,0.28,0.25,0.21,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.17,0.22,0.28,0.27,0.28,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.22,0.29,0.21,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.5,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.12,0.17,0.31,0.29,0.43,0.74,1	91.8%
ATL 101, CLE 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.24,0.19,0.15,0.22,0.45,0.27,0.16,0.11,0.19,0.26,0.33,0.38,0.23,0.41,0.19,0.39,0.53,0.36,0.45,0.73,1	90.6%
LAC 89, CHI 94	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.21,0.15,0.33,0.45,0.54,0.43,0.92,1	90.5%