NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	109		Excitement	7.6 [347]		MVP	Kyle Lowry (MIA): +28.5%
LA Clippers	112		Comeback	5.1 [476]		LVP	Duncan Robinson (MIA): -29.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.11,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.28	0.11	0.19	0.01	17	68%	0.42	4	-0.13	3	100%	0.04
Bam Adebayo	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.21,0.17,0.17	0.16	-0.01	-0.01	18	68%	0.22	2	-0.05	8	75%	-0.01
Caleb Martin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	-0.01	-0.04	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Tucker	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	5	60%	0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	23	46%	-0.03	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Duncan Robinson	-0.30	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.3	-0.09	-0.21	-0.01	13	23%	-0.30	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

LA Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Bledsoe	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.11	0.06	-0.01	16	64%	0.20	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Ivica Zubac	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.06	0.01	10	69%	0.16	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Paul George	0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.05	-0.02	25	52%	0.16	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Luke Kennard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	12	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.00	17	55%	0.21	2	-0.19	6	100%	0.09
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	60%	0.02	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Terance Mann	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	1.7	26.6	15.2	24.5	1.8	36.0	132.4
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +44.2%

MIA -1.6%

LAC +0.8%

LAC +4.7%

LAC +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAC	NBA	MIA	LAC	NBA
this game	14.7	14.5	14.5	111.2	113.1	110.8
season	14.9	14.6		112.0	108.8
opponent	14.5	14.9		109.2	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.5	14.5	17.7	14.4	14.7
LAC	14.2	15.5	12.3	16.2	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dewayne Dedmon	15	15	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.02	2	-5	7	14.8	14.7	0.11	18.9	13.8	5.10
Caleb Martin	43	41	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.11	4	-7	11	12.9	16.1	-3.24	17.0	12.8	4.21
Duncan Robinson	53	57	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.42	11	-14	25	14.7	14.7	0.07	14.2	14.9	-0.68
Max Strus	37	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	2	-7	14.2	15.0	-0.78	15.1	14.2	0.89
Gabe Vincent	47	47	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.04	-9	6	-15	14.5	14.9	-0.33	15.8	13.4	2.34
Tyler Herro	80	82	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.48	2	-5	7	14.7	14.6	0.11	13.5	19.7	-6.24
Kyle Lowry	76	77	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.30	-6	3	-9	15.2	13.1	2.08	14.9	13.3	1.56
Bam Adebayo	83	84	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.39	-5	2	-7	14.7	14.8	-0.11	13.8	18.9	-5.10
P.J. Tucker	56	58	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.32	-9	6	-15	15.9	13.1	2.73	12.8	17.0	-4.21

LA Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Bledsoe	83	82	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.38	8	-5	13	14.4	15.2	-0.85	15.2	12.0	3.23
Nicolas Batum	78	76	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.36	5	-2	7	13.6	18.0	-4.40	14.6	15.2	-0.67
Reggie Jackson	65	64	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.33	4	-1	5	14.0	15.5	-1.47	14.9	14.4	0.49
Ivica Zubac	62	60	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.20	7	-4	11	13.6	16.1	-2.51	15.8	13.0	2.83
Luke Kennard	52	54	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.19	7	-4	11	15.6	13.4	2.19	14.5	14.9	-0.37
Paul George	80	79	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.35	-1	4	-5	14.1	16.2	-2.01	14.3	16.2	-1.87
Terance Mann	36	33	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.15	-3	6	-9	16.1	13.7	2.43	14.8	14.7	0.13
Justise Winslow	6	7	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	9	-15	15.0	14.5	0.49	9.9	15.1	-5.22
Isaiah Hartenstein	33	35	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.06	-6	9	-15	17.4	13.1	4.24	13.6	15.3	-1.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.73,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.91,0.85,0.83,0.94,0.83,0.86,0.81,0.95,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 90, HOU 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.25,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.59,0.67,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.91,0.88,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.84,0.9,0.96,1	93.3%
MIN 97, SAC 105	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.19,0.23,0.24,0.28,0.2,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.29,0.39,0.33,0.4,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.62,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.84,0.81,0.92,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.78,0.85,0.98,1	93.3%
OKC 89, UTA 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.19,0.22,0.23,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.71,0.65,0.73,0.77,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.9,0.85,0.91,0.9,0.98,0.98,0.98,1	93.1%