NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	10.7 [48]		MVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): +23.5%
Indiana Pacers	102		Comeback	4.5 [251]		LVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): -59.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.06,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.21,0.12,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.02	0.20	-0.01	28	51%	0.39	3	-0.15	3	100%	0.01
Max Strus	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	4	62%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	-0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	0.06	-0.05	0.04	10	70%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Markieff Morris	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.02	-0.00	6	33%	0.04	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Tucker	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.11	0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	15	47%	0.04	5	-0.15	6	83%	0.02
Jimmy Butler	-0.59	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.27,-0.59,-0.53,-0.53,-0.59,-0.59,-0.59	-0.12	-0.46	0.01	22	39%	-0.40	4	-0.19	5	80%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Oshae Brissett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.05,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.07	0.16	0.00	11	72%	0.33	3	-0.10	3	33%	-0.09
Jeremy Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.03	-0.00	6	100%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	0	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	8	44%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	17	47%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.00
Myles Turner	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.00	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,0.01,-0.06,-0.19,-0.19,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	0.00	0.01	19	39%	0.06	4	-0.18	8	100%	0.08
Chris Duarte	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.03	-0.17	0.04	21	40%	-0.21	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.4	2.4	32.1	14.7	26.3	2.3	30.7	2.5	18.0	151.4
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	2.3	15.4	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -0.2%

IND +21.3%

MIA -8.0%

IND +27.0%

IND +9.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	14.1	15.8	14.5	85.0	96.2	110.8
season	14.9	14.4		112.0	111.4
opponent	14.7	14.9		115.0	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	14.8	14.5	13.0	14.1	14.0	14.1
IND	14.5	15.5	17.0	15.3	17.4	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Max Strus	37	34	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.12	-3	-6	3	13.1	14.6	-1.59	14.9	16.2	-1.27
Markieff Morris	36	36	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.10	-3	-6	3	13.1	14.6	-1.48	15.5	15.9	-0.41
Gabe Vincent	50	50	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.01	-2	-7	5	14.3	13.9	0.46	15.2	16.3	-1.12
Dewayne Dedmon	30	29	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.06	-4	-5	1	12.9	14.6	-1.66	15.3	16.0	-0.69
Jimmy Butler	81	81	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	-6	3	14.3	13.3	1.04	15.8	15.7	0.07
Bam Adebayo	77	77	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.30	-5	-4	-1	14.6	12.9	1.66	16.0	15.3	0.69
P.J. Tucker	69	69	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.32	-5	-4	-1	14.7	13.0	1.74	15.9	15.5	0.48
Tyler Herro	83	81	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.16	-13	4	-17	13.7	15.5	-1.76	16.1	14.6	1.48
Duncan Robinson	72	73	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.37	-7	-2	-5	14.5	13.2	1.33	16.2	14.9	1.21

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Domantas Sabonis	86	86	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.18	18	-9	27	15.4	17.3	-1.88	14.2	13.5	0.77
Justin Holiday	73	74	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.39	10	-1	11	15.7	16.0	-0.37	14.6	12.9	1.67
Chris Duarte	83	85	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.30	13	-4	17	15.2	17.9	-2.73	14.2	13.7	0.52
Oshae Brissett	61	60	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.17	7	2	5	17.1	14.0	3.12	14.1	14.1	0.05
Malcolm Brogdon	82	84	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.13	6	3	3	15.5	16.8	-1.37	14.4	13.0	1.45
Isaiah Jackson	3	3	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	10	-11	17.3	15.7	1.61	8.3	14.3	-5.93
Myles Turner	34	35	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.16	-5	14	-19	14.8	16.2	-1.44	14.4	14.0	0.41
T.J. McConnell	49	49	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.04	1	8	-7	16.4	15.2	1.26	13.3	14.7	-1.38
Jeremy Lamb	37	36	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.12	-1	10	-11	16.6	15.3	1.26	13.1	14.6	-1.52
Torrey Craig	22	23	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	-0.08	-3	12	-15	15.7	15.8	-0.12	13.8	14.2	-0.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.72,0.72,0.63,0.67,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.34,0.24,0.27,0.41,0.24,0.4,0.47,0.36,0.67,0.85,0.54,0.55,0.78,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 122, LAL 129	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.69,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.51,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.48,0.54,0.43,0.43,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.59,0.58,0.32,0.46,0.57,0.83,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.9,1,1	89.4%
MIA 92, TOR 96	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.69,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.42,0.34,0.25,0.42,0.47,0.26,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.29,0.43,0.85,0.54,0.69,0.63,0.91,0.99,1	89.3%
CHA 109, NYK 118	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.7,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.91,0.9,0.8,0.78,0.76,0.83,0.74,0.75,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.53,0.75,0.72,0.78,0.83,0.46,0.69,0.89,0.98,1,1	88.7%