NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	96		Excitement	7.2 [378]		MVP	Kendrick Nunn (MIA): +27.3%
Los Angeles Lakers	94		Comeback	1.6 [433]		LVP	Alex Caruso (LAL): -17.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kendrick Nunn	0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.24	0.06	0.03	14	90%	0.30	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Herro	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	45%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Duncan Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00	8	50%	0.08	1	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01
Gabe Vincent	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	5	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Precious Achiuwa	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Bam Adebayo	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	16	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	20	48%	0.08	5	-0.15	10	80%	0.03
Andre Iguodala	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	2	75%	0.00	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.03	9	11%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.01	5	92%	0.15	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Montrezl Harrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	12	64%	0.11	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Talen Horton-Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.01	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.06	0.00	10	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.08	-0.08	0.06	-0.10	0.03	21	49%	-0.08	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Markieff Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	3	25%	-0.05	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.07	-0.00	21	41%	-0.04	5	-0.13	4	100%	0.02
Alex Caruso	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18	-0.18	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	3	0%	-0.12	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.3	3.3	28.8	13.8	28.2	3.7	31.5	140.6
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +32.8%

MIA +0.1%

MIA +13.6%

LAL -2.3%

MIA +5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAL	NBA	MIA	LAL	NBA
this game	15.4	14.6	14.4	100.0	97.9	111.3
season	14.6	14.6		109.3	108.6
opponent	14.5	14.9		106.7	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.4	13.8	14.0	18.0	15.4
LAL	13.6	15.0	13.7	16.3	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendrick Nunn	80	78	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.36	9	-7	16	15.4	15.1	0.33	14.7	14.1	0.68
Kelly Olynyk	62	61	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.14	14	-12	26	14.5	17.0	-2.53	14.2	15.4	-1.21
Jimmy Butler	67	67	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.35	0	2	-2	15.3	15.5	-0.17	14.9	14.0	0.87
Precious Achiuwa	23	24	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.03	10	-8	18	14.3	15.7	-1.38	13.7	14.9	-1.14
Duncan Robinson	62	64	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.21	0	2	-2	16.8	12.9	3.85	15.0	13.9	1.09
Max Strus	23	23	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	1	0	15.5	15.4	0.11	16.0	14.2	1.78
Bam Adebayo	73	72	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.41	-8	10	-18	15.7	14.3	1.38	14.9	13.7	1.14
Andre Iguodala	49	50	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.39	-9	11	-20	15.5	15.3	0.19	14.7	14.5	0.12
Tyler Herro	28	29	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	0	2	15.0	15.6	-0.61	13.7	15.0	-1.36
Gabe Vincent	13	12	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.13	-9	11	-20	13.5	15.7	-2.15	12.1	15.0	-2.88

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	76	76	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.42	11	-13	24	14.1	16.4	-2.27	15.8	13.7	2.14
Marc Gasol	48	48	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.19	3	-5	8	14.4	14.8	-0.46	16.1	14.7	1.46
Wesley Matthews	60	60	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.34	6	-8	14	14.8	14.2	0.61	15.7	14.9	0.81
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	68	69	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.38	4	-6	10	15.1	13.5	1.56	16.1	13.7	2.35
Markieff Morris	36	36	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.11	-8	6	-14	14.2	14.8	-0.61	14.9	15.7	-0.81
Talen Horton-Tucker	36	36	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.11	-8	6	-14	14.2	14.8	-0.61	14.9	15.7	-0.81
Montrezl Harrell	47	47	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.17	-7	5	-12	15.0	14.2	0.86	14.9	15.9	-0.94
Alex Caruso	41	41	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.25	-5	3	-8	14.2	14.9	-0.67	13.9	16.5	-2.56
Kyle Kuzma	68	67	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.25	-6	4	-10	15.0	13.7	1.26	15.2	15.9	-0.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.32,0.4,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.3,0.32,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.61,0.52,0.35,0.31,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.34,0.3,0.15,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.23,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 85, ATL 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.25,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.41,0.38,0.44,0.38,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.33,0.28,0	91.4%
MIL 90, CLE 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.33,0.35,0.25,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.26,0.16,0.18,0.3,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.31,0.35,0.28,0.1,0.15,0.06,0.06,0	90.9%
PHX 116, IND 96	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.32,0.37,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.18,0.22,0.13,0.18,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	90.8%