NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	103		Excitement	9.2 [122]		MVP	Garrison Mathews (WAS): +12.6%
Miami Heat	100		Comeback	5.7 [59]		LVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): -45.2%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Garrison Mathews	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.07	-0.00	6	67%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Brown Jr.	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.05	-0.02	9	45%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Davis Bertans	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.02	0.07	-0.00	8	61%	0.20	4	-0.15	2	100%	0.04
Robin Lopez	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	6	75%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alex Len	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.04	0.00	4	83%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Deni Avdija	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	9	72%	0.10	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	0.01	0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	23	59%	0.23	5	-0.22	8	75%	0.00
Ish Smith	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.24	-0.15	-0.11	-0.02	8	0%	-0.22	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rui Hachimura	-0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.29	-0.11	-0.17	0.01	11	35%	-0.05	3	-0.24	9	56%	-0.08

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.01	0.11	-0.00	15	53%	0.18	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.03	0.11	-0.01	9	40%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	5	70%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.01	0.01	0.11	-0.10	-0.00	15	67%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Precious Achiuwa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	9	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,-0.07	-0.07	0.08	-0.14	0.02	11	58%	-0.07	0	0.00	11	82%	-0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.45	-0.45	-0.12	-0.34	-0.01	11	43%	-0.27	6	-0.18	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.5	2.4	23.3	14.5	24.3	2.4	33.4	129.8
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +35.3%

WAS +15.8%

WAS +21.0%

MIA -22.7%

WAS +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.5	13.6	14.4	104.0	101.0	111.3
season	13.3	14.6		109.9	109.3
opponent	14.9	14.1		110.4	112.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	13.9	18.3	15.3	15.1	15.5
MIA	11.9	14.4	13.0	15.6	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Davis Bertans	56	54	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.36	14	-11	25	14.3	17.1	-2.75	14.1	13.0	1.14
Alex Len	57	55	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.44	7	-4	11	15.0	16.2	-1.21	13.8	13.2	0.59
Rui Hachimura	72	73	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.41	5	-2	7	15.7	15.0	0.76	13.7	13.2	0.52
Ish Smith	54	56	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.36	1	2	-1	15.6	15.4	0.17	13.6	13.6	-0.05
Bradley Beal	78	79	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.29	-4	7	-11	15.3	16.2	-0.86	13.6	13.6	-0.09
Troy Brown Jr.	45	43	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	1	1	15.4	15.6	-0.17	13.6	13.6	0.05
Garrison Mathews	30	28	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	3	-3	15.1	15.7	-0.60	13.6	13.6	0.04
Robin Lopez	37	40	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.05	-1	4	-5	16.1	15.2	0.86	13.2	13.8	-0.55
Deni Avdija	66	67	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.10	-9	12	-21	16.8	12.8	4.00	13.0	14.8	-1.78

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Avery Bradley	27	28	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.10	1	-4	5	13.4	13.6	-0.23	14.9	15.8	-0.92
Duncan Robinson	58	57	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.05	3	-6	9	13.3	14.0	-0.72	16.4	14.3	2.18
Max Strus	8	8	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.01	1	-4	5	11.6	13.7	-2.12	11.6	15.9	-4.23
Kelly Olynyk	56	56	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.32	8	-11	19	13.2	14.0	-0.75	15.7	15.3	0.42
Precious Achiuwa	24	26	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	2	-7	13.2	13.7	-0.54	16.3	15.2	1.07
Bam Adebayo	75	73	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.43	2	-5	7	13.7	13.2	0.54	15.2	16.3	-1.07
Andre Iguodala	43	43	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.09	-11	8	-19	14.0	13.2	0.75	15.3	15.7	-0.42
Tyler Herro	71	69	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.36	-3	0	-3	13.6	13.6	-0.04	15.7	15.1	0.60
Jimmy Butler	76	76	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.49	-1	-2	1	13.6	13.4	0.18	15.9	14.3	1.58
Goran Dragic	57	59	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.44	-10	7	-17	14.2	12.7	1.45	14.8	16.6	-1.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.85,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.72,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.7,0.57,0.57,0.42,0.42,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.38,0.55,0.33,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 103, LAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.61,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.76,0.73,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.63,0.68,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.45,0.45,0.16,0	91.1%
OKC 124, PHX 116	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.76,0.79,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.84,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.82,0.75,0.69,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.37,0.37,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.4,0.31,0.43,0.55,0.42,0	90.9%
CHA 93, GSW 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.72,0.63,0.71,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.78,0.66,0.56,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.54,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.45,0.23,0.42,0	90.5%