NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	107		Excitement	8.3 [239]		MVP	Fred VanVleet (TOR): +37.1%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	2.0 [567]		LVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): -16.8%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred VanVleet	0.37	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37	0.23	0.13	-0.01	16	80%	0.50	4	-0.13	13	100%	0.08
Pascal Siakam	0.13	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.13	0.11	0.07	0.04	14	69%	0.18	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
Serge Ibaka	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	-0.00	12	62%	0.15	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	8	56%	0.12	4	-0.10	9	100%	0.08
Matt Thomas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
OG Anunoby	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	5	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Marc Gasol	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	2	75%	0.04	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.04
Terence Davis	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	9	39%	-0.03	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	0.00	13	63%	0.20	1	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.04	-0.00	14	57%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.08,0.08,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.01	0.02	14	76%	0.39	5	-0.31	5	80%	-0.09
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	11	55%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	9	56%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	5	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Nunn	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	7	12%	-0.12	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.17	-0.17	0.02	-0.19	-0.00	9	62%	-0.00	3	-0.17	8	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.8	29.3	14.8	36.5	2.8	41.8	152.1
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +8.9%

TOR +28.8%

MIA -2.4%

TOR +8.3%

TOR +6.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	14.3	14.5	14.2	108.1	102.0	109.6
season	14.0	14.7		109.9	111.7
opponent	14.5	14.5		108.9	104.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.4	12.8	14.1	16.0	14.3
MIA	14.4	15.4	13.1	15.3	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pascal Siakam	74	75	0.84	-0.34	1.19	0.43	14	-10	24	14.1	14.7	-0.60	14.8	13.7	1.17
Marc Gasol	48	49	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.35	11	-7	18	12.6	15.8	-3.20	14.7	14.3	0.37
Kyle Lowry	73	76	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.37	10	-6	16	13.8	15.7	-1.87	14.6	14.4	0.17
OG Anunoby	70	72	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.46	0	4	-4	13.2	17.0	-3.81	14.6	14.3	0.35
Fred VanVleet	87	88	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.43	1	3	-2	14.3	13.9	0.41	14.9	11.9	2.99
Matt Thomas	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	3	-2	21.0	14.1	6.87	6.0	14.7	-8.70
Terence Davis	9	10	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	3	-2	13.8	14.3	-0.54	11.9	14.8	-2.91
Norman Powell	57	58	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.01	-5	9	-14	15.5	12.5	3.00	14.8	14.2	0.63
Serge Ibaka	51	52	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.03	-7	11	-18	15.8	12.6	3.20	14.3	14.7	-0.37
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	24	23	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.09	-6	10	-16	15.9	13.7	2.17	12.8	15.0	-2.20

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Goran Dragic	61	61	0.28	-0.78	1.06	-0.16	15	-19	34	13.2	16.5	-3.23	14.1	14.5	-0.33
Derrick Jones Jr.	1	0	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.08	-5	1	-6	1.0	14.7	-13.66	0.0	14.3	-14.27
Duncan Robinson	49	47	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.09	-1	-3	2	15.3	13.8	1.44	13.5	15.0	-1.49
Bam Adebayo	67	64	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.20	2	-6	8	14.7	14.2	0.44	14.5	13.9	0.51
Andre Iguodala	40	38	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.06	-7	3	-10	14.6	14.5	0.08	15.0	13.8	1.22
Kelly Olynyk	63	64	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.43	10	-14	24	14.5	14.6	-0.04	14.7	13.4	1.31
Tyler Herro	50	52	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.41	3	-7	10	14.2	14.8	-0.60	15.0	13.5	1.49
Jimmy Butler	73	70	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.34	-7	3	-10	13.7	16.7	-3.08	13.5	16.2	-2.69
Jae Crowder	69	68	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.23	-14	10	-24	15.2	13.1	2.14	14.5	13.8	0.63
Kendrick Nunn	32	31	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.19	-16	12	-28	16.9	13.4	3.44	13.6	14.6	-0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.46,0.42,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.17,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.19,0.23,0.22,0.29,0.3,0.38,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.2,0.22,0.33,0.21,0.1,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 95, LAC 90	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.25,0.28,0.25,0.37,0.31,0.26,0.16,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.3,0.19,0.13,0.25,0.16,0.03,0.04,0	93.6%
PHX 89, UTA 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.29,0.16,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.17,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.28,0.24,0.15,0.23,0.15,0	91.9%
HOU 91, MIL 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.26,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.57,0.37,0.41,0.29,0.28,0.39,0.11,0.03,0,0	91.4%