NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	129		Excitement	10.1 [77]		MVP	Jordan McLaughlin (MIN): +41.3%
Miami Heat	126		Comeback	111.4 [4]		LVP	Jae Crowder (MIA): -16.0%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jordan McLaughlin	0.41	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.41	0.12	0.30	0.01	5	93%	0.41	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.09
Malik Beasley	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.11	0.09	-0.01	14	64%	0.24	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.04
Jake Layman	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.17	-0.00	0.24	0.07	3	42%	0.17	0	0.00	6	83%	0.12
Juancho Hernangomez	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.05	0.01	11	74%	0.19	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02
Kelan Martin	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.06	-0.02	8	61%	0.12	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Naz Reid	0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	7	53%	0.04	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
D'Angelo Russell	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.03,0.03	0.14	-0.05	0.06	18	69%	0.10	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.00
Josh Okogie	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Culver	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	9	50%	0.08	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.08	0.01	11	48%	0.02	4	-0.17	1	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.12	0.12	-0.00	6	87%	0.26	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.02	0.02	4	137%	0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.07	-0.02	6	75%	0.20	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.08	0.00	3	117%	0.18	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Nunn	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	19	55%	0.10	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.01	13	54%	0.12	4	-0.11	15	67%	-0.09
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.08	0.01	8	70%	0.07	3	-0.10	7	71%	-0.01
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0,0,-0.1	-0.10	0.00	-0.10	-0.00	10	58%	0.03	4	-0.13	11	91%	0.15
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.09	0.00	9	28%	-0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	0.2	33.1	15.7	27.5	2.3	44.2	147.2
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +56.2%

MIA -15.5%

MIA -7.3%

MIN +17.8%

MIA -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIA	NBA	MIN	MIA	NBA
this game	13.1	13.6	14.2	118.3	117.8	109.6
season	13.8	14.7		107.1	111.7
opponent	14.5	13.8		108.9	110.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	12.9	13.7	13.4	12.3	13.1
MIA	13.7	12.4	13.8	14.4	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan McLaughlin	50	48	1.21	-0.71	1.92	0.62	20	-17	37	12.2	13.8	-1.63	14.4	13.0	1.39
D'Angelo Russell	71	71	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.75	0	3	-3	12.9	13.4	-0.56	13.6	13.6	-0.03
Jake Layman	34	32	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.65	0	3	-3	11.7	13.7	-2.04	11.4	14.5	-3.16
Malik Beasley	74	73	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.20	11	-8	19	13.2	12.7	0.50	14.0	12.7	1.29
Juancho Hernangomez	71	70	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.49	0	3	-3	12.6	14.0	-1.37	13.9	13.1	0.78
Jarrett Culver	50	48	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	4	-5	12.6	13.5	-0.89	13.0	14.1	-1.11
Naz Reid	41	39	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	-0.20	2	1	1	14.5	12.2	2.29	13.9	13.4	0.53
Kelan Martin	43	41	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	-0.23	-1	4	-5	13.6	12.7	0.86	13.2	13.8	-0.68
Josh Okogie	59	59	-0.34	0.84	-1.17	-0.22	-4	7	-11	14.0	12.0	2.07	14.5	12.4	2.09
James Johnson	52	54	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	0.01	-12	15	-27	13.4	12.8	0.54	12.9	14.3	-1.34

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendrick Nunn	70	68	0.39	-0.89	1.29	0.22	6	-9	15	13.6	13.5	0.16	13.2	12.8	0.41
Goran Dragic	56	59	0.24	-0.74	0.99	0.16	3	-6	9	13.5	13.7	-0.19	13.3	12.8	0.49
Duncan Robinson	56	59	0.15	-0.65	0.81	0.42	-9	6	-15	15.1	12.0	3.11	13.5	12.6	0.89
Kelly Olynyk	35	35	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.02	2	-5	7	14.7	13.0	1.67	13.9	12.7	1.27
Jimmy Butler	80	80	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.54	4	-7	11	13.3	14.5	-1.24	12.9	13.4	-0.50
Bam Adebayo	74	75	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.59	4	-7	11	13.6	13.6	0.02	13.0	13.2	-0.14
Derrick Jones Jr.	47	48	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.57	-5	2	-7	12.3	14.6	-2.23	12.8	13.3	-0.56
Jae Crowder	72	74	-0.84	0.34	-1.17	-0.63	-7	4	-11	13.0	14.7	-1.67	12.7	13.9	-1.27
Andre Iguodala	45	47	-0.93	0.43	-1.36	-0.55	-13	10	-23	13.6	13.6	0.06	12.7	13.4	-0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.48,0.53,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.43,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.46,0.62,0.71,0.58,0.68,0.79,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.68,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 102, LAC 98	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.67,0.58,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.78,0.58,0	91.5%
BOS 90, POR 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.7,0.81,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.67,0.73,0	91.0%
DAL 95, MIA 93	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.28,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.82,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.8,0.88,0.99,0.99,0.95,0.95,0.84,0.75,0.74,0	90.6%