NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	120		Excitement	7.3 [386]		MVP	Terrence Ross (ORL): +40.2%
Orlando Magic	114		Comeback	1.1 [602]		LVP	Evan Fournier (ORL): -28.5%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dennis Schroder	0.36	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.18,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.36	0.24	0.12	-0.00	18	79%	0.40	1	-0.04	3	67%	0.01
Mike Muscala	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.12	0.07	0.00	6	117%	0.24	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.09,-0.06,0.04,0.1,0.1	0.01	0.09	-0.01	12	54%	0.22	3	-0.12	11	82%	0.08
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	-0.00	-0.01	10	72%	0.16	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	60%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Darius Bazley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nerlens Noel	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.01	10	70%	0.11	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Hamidou Diallo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	11	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.05,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.39,0.4,0.4	0.40	0.17	0.21	-0.02	16	70%	0.44	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.05
Michael Carter-Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.02	-0.02	12	56%	0.14	2	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.05	-0.01	20	59%	0.17	2	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	13	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.11
Khem Birch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Bamba	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Clark	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wes Iwundu	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	6	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Markelle Fultz	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.07	0.01	7	69%	0.06	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.29	-0.29	-0.12	-0.17	-0.01	12	48%	-0.05	7	-0.23	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.3	21.2	14.6	27.3	2.4	35.5	126.8
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +18.3%

OKC +25.1%

ORL -9.0%

OKC +12.2%

OKC +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	ORL	NBA	OKC	ORL	NBA
this game	13.7	14.8	14.2	120.0	111.8	109.6
season	14.3	14.7		108.8	107.1
opponent	14.2	14.5		108.9	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.1	13.7	13.8	14.1	13.7
ORL	15.7	16.9	14.5	12.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	80	80	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.43	9	-3	12	13.4	14.8	-1.40	14.8	15.0	-0.22
Nerlens Noel	63	64	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.17	13	-7	20	13.3	14.2	-0.89	15.3	14.0	1.27
Chris Paul	61	63	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.12	10	-4	14	13.7	13.6	0.06	14.9	14.7	0.21
Danilo Gallinari	66	66	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.19	5	1	4	14.1	12.9	1.21	14.7	15.1	-0.36
Hamidou Diallo	37	38	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.14	1	5	-4	13.2	14.0	-0.74	15.5	14.4	1.12
Darius Bazley	35	37	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	5	-4	13.1	14.0	-0.96	14.7	14.9	-0.19
Mike Muscala	37	38	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.15	-7	13	-20	14.2	13.3	0.89	14.0	15.3	-1.27
Luguentz Dort	52	52	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	-0.09	-4	10	-14	14.4	12.9	1.55	15.5	14.1	1.42

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wes Iwundu	51	51	0.15	-0.65	0.81	-0.05	7	-13	20	15.1	14.5	0.63	14.5	12.9	1.61
Michael Carter-Williams	41	40	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-11	16	14.1	15.3	-1.25	14.0	13.5	0.53
Khem Birch	27	25	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.16	4	-10	14	14.3	15.0	-0.72	14.2	13.5	0.64
Gary Clark	9	8	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.08	-11	5	-16	19.1	14.4	4.70	10.4	14.0	-3.59
Markelle Fultz	67	67	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-1	-4	14.9	14.7	0.17	13.8	13.4	0.38
Aaron Gordon	73	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.18	-8	2	-10	15.0	14.4	0.57	13.6	13.9	-0.24
Terrence Ross	64	61	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.31	-4	-2	-2	14.2	15.9	-1.67	12.9	14.9	-1.95
Evan Fournier	76	75	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.33	-12	6	-18	15.0	14.3	0.74	13.7	13.5	0.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.43,0.49,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.21,0.31,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.22,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.32,0.38,0.43,0.25,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.27,0.28,0.38,0.28,0.14,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 90, BOS 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.21,0.18,0.21,0.3,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.21,0.3,0.38,0.37,0.26,0.32,0.21,0.19,0.33,0.39,0.28,0.14,0.04,0	91.8%
TOR 95, ATL 88	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.17,0.12,0.15,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.38,0.38,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.19,0.29,0.22,0.04,0	91.8%
SAS 85, MIN 77	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.13,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.22,0.09,0	91.8%