NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	98		Excitement	9.3 [146]		MVP	Nerlens Noel (OKC): +18.7%
Toronto Raptors	97		Comeback	2.4 [351]		LVP	Abdel Nader (OKC): -16.7%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nerlens Noel	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.10	0.09	0.00	5	100%	0.23	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0.18	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,-0.01,-0.01,0.18	0.14	0.06	0.01	21	67%	0.39	3	-0.21	6	83%	0.01
Darius Bazley	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.06	-0.01	7	86%	0.17	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	18	62%	0.39	5	-0.33	4	100%	0.03
Deonte Burton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Hervey	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	7	45%	-0.04	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Luguentz Dort	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	6	23%	-0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Terrance Ferguson	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	5	0%	-0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Abdel Nader	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.17,-0.17	-0.05	-0.12	0.00	4	36%	0.00	2	-0.17	3	67%	-0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patrick McCaw	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.07	-0.00	9	72%	0.22	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Terence Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	-0.00	8	69%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Boucher	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	7	56%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.02	-0.01	18	53%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.08
Oshae Brissett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
OG Anunoby	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	12	25%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.00	-0.09	0.01	11	55%	0.05	2	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	0.01	-0.13	-0.00	13	62%	0.22	6	-0.33	6	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.4	23.9	14.7	27.3	2.7	30.3	127.5
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +33.7%

TOR -9.6%

OKC +6.3%

TOR -4.8%

OKC +24.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	TOR	NBA	OKC	TOR	NBA
this game	14.7	15.7	14.2	103.2	102.1	109.6
season	14.3	14.0		108.8	109.9
opponent	14.5	14.5		104.2	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.8	13.4	14.8	15.9	14.7
TOR	16.5	14.3	13.5	19.4	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Paul	68	67	0.95	-0.45	1.40	0.60	12	-11	23	14.4	15.4	-1.09	16.0	14.9	1.08
Steven Adams	57	57	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.44	0	1	-1	14.8	14.4	0.45	15.4	16.0	-0.54
Terrance Ferguson	70	69	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.44	0	1	-1	14.4	15.5	-1.16	16.1	14.6	1.48
Luguentz Dort	33	33	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.39	-2	3	-5	15.1	14.4	0.70	15.0	16.0	-1.00
Abdel Nader	43	44	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.06	8	-7	15	15.0	14.4	0.53	15.4	15.9	-0.45
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	77	77	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.29	-6	7	-13	14.8	14.3	0.48	15.6	16.0	-0.43
Nerlens Noel	38	38	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	0	1	14.4	14.8	-0.45	16.0	15.4	0.54
Darius Bazley	59	59	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.09	-2	3	-5	14.4	15.0	-0.59	16.2	14.7	1.50
Deonte Burton	15	15	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	4	-7	15.2	14.6	0.64	15.0	15.8	-0.78
Kevin Hervey	15	16	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.01	-3	4	-7	15.5	14.5	1.03	13.5	16.1	-2.59

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Oshae Brissett	37	35	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.08	2	-3	5	14.7	16.3	-1.56	15.2	14.4	0.80
OG Anunoby	56	56	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.03	0	-1	1	15.1	16.5	-1.42	13.3	16.6	-3.27
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	4	5	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	1	-3	16.2	15.6	0.62	18.8	14.4	4.37
Chris Boucher	37	36	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	3	-7	16.2	15.3	0.83	15.2	14.4	0.81
Fred VanVleet	75	75	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.34	3	-4	7	15.6	15.7	-0.06	14.6	15.0	-0.43
Serge Ibaka	68	68	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.40	4	-5	9	15.4	16.4	-1.00	14.7	14.7	-0.00
Terence Davis	50	50	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.50	5	-6	11	15.8	15.5	0.23	16.2	12.9	3.33
Kyle Lowry	77	78	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.55	-3	2	-5	15.9	14.5	1.42	14.3	16.1	-1.77
Patrick McCaw	71	72	-0.77	0.27	-1.03	-0.47	-10	9	-19	16.2	14.0	2.27	14.3	15.9	-1.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.46,0.51,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.6,0.66,0.48,0.53,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.64,0.55,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 103, SAC 100	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.6,0.56,0.46,0.57,0.47,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.47,0.54,0.45,0.42,0	92.2%
WAS 95, IND 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.61,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.31,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.67,0.59,0	91.8%
PHI 97, MIA 91	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.4,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.66,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.47,0.32,0.41,0.35,0.46,0.55,0.63,0.43,0.41,0	91.4%