NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	104		Excitement	6.6 [516]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +26.2%
Denver Nuggets	113		Comeback	18.8 [218]		LVP	Aaron Gordon (ORL): -11.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
D.J. Augustin	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.14	0.09	0.06	9	72%	0.17	0	0.00	7	100%	0.04
Wes Iwundu	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Mo Bamba	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.00	0.06	-0.00	9	50%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Carter-Williams	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	-0.04	0.01	16	53%	0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Jonathan Isaac	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	54%	0.02	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Terrence Ross	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0.00	8	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	0.03	0.06	10	59%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Markelle Fultz	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	10	45%	-0.01	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	14	31%	-0.07	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.11	0.17	0.01	19	69%	0.36	4	-0.10	10	90%	0.06
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	4	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	6	56%	0.07	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Gary Harris	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	7	56%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	9	60%	0.07	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.01
Jerami Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	8	50%	0.05	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	14	60%	0.11	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	11	41%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.6	27.7	14.6	31.6	0.8	26.8	127.5
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +46.0%

ORL -1.0%

DEN +17.4%

ORL -17.8%

DEN +5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DEN	NBA	ORL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.6	14.7	14.2	105.1	115.3	109.6
season	14.7	15.0		107.1	112.0
opponent	14.5	14.2		110.7	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.5	12.8	16.2	14.8	14.6
DEN	14.9	14.9	12.1	17.3	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonathan Isaac	36	36	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.03	5	-14	19	14.1	14.8	-0.65	15.0	14.5	0.54
D.J. Augustin	57	55	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.34	11	-20	31	14.4	14.8	-0.48	15.7	13.4	2.30
Wes Iwundu	12	11	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.07	0	-9	9	16.2	14.3	1.93	17.9	14.3	3.63
Terrence Ross	46	44	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.15	1	-10	11	14.8	14.3	0.55	14.8	14.6	0.24
Michael Carter-Williams	47	48	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.08	-3	-6	3	14.5	14.6	-0.13	14.5	14.9	-0.36
Mo Bamba	32	31	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-7	5	15.7	14.0	1.63	14.1	15.0	-0.86
Nikola Vucevic	67	67	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.10	-7	-2	-5	14.0	15.7	-1.63	15.0	14.1	0.86
Markelle Fultz	62	63	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.05	-9	0	-9	14.1	15.2	-1.10	14.7	14.7	-0.00
Aaron Gordon	69	69	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	2	-13	14.6	14.5	0.08	14.1	16.1	-1.97
Evan Fournier	67	66	-0.93	0.43	-1.35	-0.05	-30	21	-51	14.9	13.9	0.91	13.8	16.6	-2.79

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Barton	83	82	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.15	22	-13	35	14.4	16.1	-1.63	14.8	13.5	1.31
Malik Beasley	20	20	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.16	13	-4	17	14.4	14.8	-0.36	16.8	14.0	2.81
Jamal Murray	74	74	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.17	12	-3	15	14.5	15.3	-0.86	14.4	15.0	-0.54
Paul Millsap	52	54	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.03	11	-2	13	14.7	14.6	0.14	14.7	14.4	0.24
Nikola Jokic	63	63	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.07	9	0	9	14.7	14.7	-0.00	14.3	15.1	-0.83
Jerami Grant	41	40	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.26	-3	12	-15	14.7	14.6	0.08	14.4	14.6	-0.22
Mason Plumlee	40	41	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.11	1	8	-7	14.5	14.8	-0.23	15.0	14.2	0.76
Monte Morris	25	26	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.08	-5	14	-19	16.0	14.2	1.77	14.6	14.5	0.03
Gary Harris	69	71	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.11	-6	15	-21	14.8	14.4	0.43	13.9	16.3	-2.41
Michael Porter Jr.	18	18	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.02	-4	13	-17	14.9	14.6	0.25	14.7	14.5	0.14
Torrey Craig	5	6	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.02	-5	14	-19	14.0	14.7	-0.72	13.3	14.6	-1.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.29,0.19,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.08,0.12,0.19,0.26,0.41,0.59,0.59,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.71,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.78,0.67,0.93,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 80, DET 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.17,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.38,0.48,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.8,0.93,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1	91.1%
SEA 85, UTA 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.31,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.22,0.3,0.39,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.63,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,1	91.0%
ATL 82, HOU 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.19,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.38,0.38,0.55,0.58,0.74,0.85,0.78,0.74,0.82,0.86,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	90.4%