NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	110		Excitement	10.7 [47]		MVP	Zach LaVine (CHI): +38.8%
Washington Wizards	109		Comeback	311.5 [6]		LVP	Bradley Beal (WAS): -25.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach LaVine	0.39	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.08,0.63,0.57,0.57,0.5,0.39,0.39	-0.07	0.80	0.34	23	42%	0.46	3	-0.08	11	100%	0.42
Wendell Carter Jr.	0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.31	-0.04	0.33	-0.03	8	45%	0.33	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.04
Tomas Satoransky	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.07,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.07	0.13	-0.01	11	74%	0.35	3	-0.14	1	100%	0.01
Lauri Markkanen	0.21	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21	0.23	0.04	0.07	19	77%	0.25	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Daniel Gafford	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille Harrison	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kris Dunn	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00	10	58%	0.04	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
Denzel Valentine	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	42%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Arcidiacono	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Coby White	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	6	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thaddeus Young	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.02	10	10%	-0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.18,0.16,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.21	0.13	-0.01	15	79%	0.37	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Garrison Mathews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.05	0.03	3	56%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.01	9	44%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anzejs Pasecniks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	7	50%	0.03	2	-0.01	4	75%	0.02
Isaac Bonga	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Brown Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.04	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.02	15	47%	0.07	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.04
Admiral Schofield	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	8	31%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	10	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,0.23,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.27,-0.25	-0.25	-0.12	-0.16	-0.03	19	42%	-0.08	5	-0.17	14	93%	0.13

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.5	1.6	27.8	14.7	25.5	1.8	38.8	1.8	16.6	156.1
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	2.3	15.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +30.9%

CHI +46.7%

WAS -30.8%

WAS -6.1%

CHI +9.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	WAS	NBA	CHI	WAS	NBA
this game	13.2	16.0	14.2	100.9	100.0	109.6
season	14.1	13.7		105.3	109.8
opponent	14.0	14.4		114.2	108.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHI	13.5	11.4	16.9	10.9	15.9	13.2
WAS	15.3	13.4	17.4	17.9	17.4	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tomas Satoransky	67	71	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.46	6	-5	11	13.0	13.5	-0.41	16.8	14.4	2.46
Zach LaVine	88	88	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.36	9	-8	17	13.6	11.7	1.84	16.3	14.6	1.74
Wendell Carter Jr.	78	80	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.47	3	-2	5	13.2	13.1	0.10	16.2	15.3	0.90
Lauri Markkanen	74	74	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.02	17	-16	33	13.5	12.6	0.89	16.3	15.4	0.89
Ryan Arcidiacono	32	30	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.54	-2	3	-5	12.4	13.5	-1.17	14.3	16.6	-2.26
Shaquille Harrison	12	11	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.27	1	0	1	13.6	13.2	0.43	17.3	15.8	1.45
Denzel Valentine	18	19	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.46	-6	7	-13	12.7	13.3	-0.64	14.6	16.3	-1.62
Daniel Gafford	24	23	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.05	-6	7	-13	12.7	13.3	-0.63	15.0	16.2	-1.18
Coby White	38	37	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	0.04	-9	10	-19	12.9	13.4	-0.51	15.7	16.1	-0.41
Kris Dunn	72	71	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	-0.38	4	-3	7	13.5	12.6	0.96	15.7	16.5	-0.81
Thaddeus Young	42	41	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.07	-12	13	-25	12.9	13.4	-0.44	15.5	16.2	-0.74

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ish Smith	59	60	0.48	-0.98	1.45	0.07	14	-15	29	15.4	16.6	-1.16	12.7	13.9	-1.19
Ian Mahinmi	51	52	0.45	-0.95	1.41	0.86	-14	13	-27	15.6	16.3	-0.61	12.7	13.6	-0.90
Garrison Mathews	27	25	0.27	-0.77	1.04	-0.02	10	-11	21	16.6	15.8	0.82	11.9	13.6	-1.66
Isaiah Thomas	62	63	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.11	-4	3	-7	16.4	15.4	0.92	13.6	12.7	0.91
Admiral Schofield	37	37	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.19	3	-4	7	16.4	15.7	0.66	13.0	13.3	-0.31
Troy Brown Jr.	48	47	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.31	5	-6	11	15.2	16.6	-1.37	12.4	13.8	-1.36
Anzejs Pasecniks	55	54	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-1.07	15	-16	31	16.3	15.6	0.68	13.8	12.7	1.10
Davis Bertans	75	75	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.54	-6	5	-11	15.7	16.5	-0.77	13.2	13.1	0.08
Bradley Beal	82	84	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.45	-11	10	-21	15.8	16.6	-0.82	13.6	11.9	1.66
Isaac Bonga	40	39	-0.80	0.30	-1.11	-0.33	-16	15	-31	16.7	15.5	1.19	13.7	12.9	0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.84,0.86,0.78,0.83,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,1,0.98,0.97,0.84,0.46,0.32,0.63,0.55,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 97, DET 93	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.83,0.86,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.89,0.87,0.93,0.78,0.91,0.95,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.27,0	88.8%
MIN 93, LAL 118	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.79,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.77,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	88.7%
DAL 84, SEA 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.95,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	88.5%