NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	97		Excitement	8.4 [157]		MVP	Chucky Atkins (DET): +21.8%
Detroit Pistons	93		Comeback	128.9 [11]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): -34.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.01	0.15	0.01	4	67%	0.20	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.1,0.09	-0.08	0.14	-0.02	7	47%	0.09	0	0.00	16	62%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.09,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	16	60%	0.08	1	-0.03	10	80%	0.09
Anthony Carter	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.00
Eddie House	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	8	19%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.01	-0.07	0.02	11	58%	-0.02	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.24,-0.24,-0.16,-0.24,-0.24,-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	17	45%	-0.04	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.04

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.28,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.22	0.22	0.09	0.11	-0.02	28	60%	0.27	3	-0.06	4	25%	-0.05
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Billy Owens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.05	-0.03	9	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dana Barros	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mateen Cleaves	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.07	-0.15	-0.00	10	30%	-0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.15,-0.34	-0.34	-0.23	-0.16	-0.04	23	34%	-0.29	2	-0.05	15	80%	0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	28.5	2.5	27.4	16.6	23.4	2.4	34.6	2.3	14.3	151.9
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	1.7	17.2	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +25.6%

MIA +35.0%

DET -1.9%

DET -4.1%

DET -4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	16.5	17.2	15.5	102.1	98.9	100.9
season	16.3	14.3		98.4	97.9
opponent	15.4	16.1		99.6	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	14.9	18.4	20.2	15.2	11.8	16.5
DET	16.4	18.6	15.8	17.5	18.2	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Majerle	57	57	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.39	17	-13	30	15.4	18.1	-2.76	16.4	18.3	-1.89
Brian Grant	75	74	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.44	6	-2	8	16.7	15.5	1.17	17.7	15.3	2.33
Tim Hardaway	67	65	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.46	5	-1	6	16.3	17.0	-0.70	18.2	15.0	3.15
Eddie Jones	69	67	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.46	4	0	4	16.3	17.0	-0.72	18.0	15.2	2.75
Anthony Mason	81	80	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.39	6	-2	8	16.3	17.3	-0.95	17.3	16.2	1.14
Eddie House	11	11	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.02	0	4	-4	15.5	16.6	-1.05	11.2	18.0	-6.79
Anthony Carter	33	33	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.07	-1	5	-6	16.9	16.2	0.71	15.2	18.2	-3.03
A.C. Green	37	38	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.14	0	4	-4	16.5	16.5	0.02	16.0	18.0	-2.03
Bruce Bowen	45	45	-0.50	1.00	-1.49	0.00	-17	21	-38	18.2	14.9	3.28	18.4	16.1	2.25

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mateen Cleaves	19	18	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.09	1	-5	6	14.3	17.9	-3.59	17.1	16.3	0.72
Mikki Moore	36	37	0.10	-0.60	0.71	0.16	-2	-2	0	18.6	16.3	2.32	16.9	16.2	0.64
Dana Barros	5	5	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-4	4	15.0	17.3	-2.30	16.8	16.5	0.34
Brian Cardinal	7	9	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-1	-2	16.7	17.2	-0.50	13.9	16.7	-2.86
Michael Curry	61	60	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-1	-2	17.4	16.7	0.70	17.5	14.7	2.74
Ben Wallace	78	77	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.30	-1	-3	2	17.4	15.9	1.57	16.9	14.6	2.37
Billy Owens	39	40	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.38	-4	0	-4	16.8	17.5	-0.70	14.4	17.9	-3.50
Jerry Stackhouse	83	86	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.52	-1	-3	2	17.2	17.4	-0.21	16.5	16.2	0.28
Chucky Atkins	77	78	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.47	-3	-1	-2	17.9	13.9	4.03	16.1	18.1	-1.93
Joe Smith	65	65	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.51	-4	0	-4	16.3	19.1	-2.83	16.6	16.2	0.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.83,0.86,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.89,0.87,0.93,0.78,0.91,0.95,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 110, OKC 106	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.44,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.89,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.46,0.47,0.63,0.43,0.42,0	92.2%
NJN 103, WAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.72,0.69,0.69,0.78,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.61,0.74,0.71,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.85,0.79,0.91,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.26,0	92.1%
NYK 112, ATL 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.77,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.91,0.83,0.91,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.23,0.01,0	90.9%