NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	113		Excitement	7.8 [315]		MVP	Anthony Davis (LAL): +33.9%
Miami Heat	110		Comeback	5.4 [432]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (LAL): -16.6%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Davis	0.34	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.34,0.34	0.20	0.13	-0.01	20	67%	0.39	1	-0.05	9	78%	0.01
LeBron James	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.16,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	-0.02	0.11	-0.01	22	58%	0.27	8	-0.16	4	50%	-0.02
JaVale McGee	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	5	69%	0.06	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.05	0.03	0.02	9	68%	0.13	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.04
Avery Bradley	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.02	9	56%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jared Dudley	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	0.00	5	30%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alex Caruso	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07	0.00	-0.06	0.01	7	53%	-0.02	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Rajon Rondo	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.05	-0.00	5	0%	-0.09	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.15	0.04	-0.00	6	85%	0.19	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.08	0.01	8	56%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.01	0.00	8	65%	0.11	1	-0.04	7	86%	0.02
Chris Silva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kendrick Nunn	0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	15	53%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	83%	0.04	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.05	-0.01	20	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	12	29%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	11	44%	0.01	2	-0.08	5	40%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.8	29.6	14.7	31.3	3.4	33.9	143.0
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +37.7%

MIA -9.5%

LAL +48.1%

MIA -28.5%

LAL +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	MIA	NBA	LAL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.9	14.0	14.2	114.1	110.0	109.6
season	14.2	14.7		111.8	111.7
opponent	14.5	14.4		108.9	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	14.9	14.5	13.8	16.7	14.9
MIA	14.5	13.7	13.9	14.0	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	80	79	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.52	9	-6	15	14.2	17.7	-3.43	14.0	14.1	-0.07
Anthony Davis	79	80	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.22	11	-8	19	14.9	15.0	-0.18	13.9	14.7	-0.89
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	63	63	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.23	5	-2	7	14.9	15.0	-0.14	13.8	14.5	-0.67
JaVale McGee	38	37	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.05	11	-8	19	13.5	15.8	-2.29	14.2	14.0	0.24
Danny Green	55	56	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.25	2	1	1	15.7	13.9	1.84	13.9	14.2	-0.37
Alex Caruso	22	24	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.04	6	-3	9	12.5	15.6	-3.04	13.6	14.2	-0.60
Avery Bradley	38	38	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.19	-3	6	-9	15.1	14.8	0.23	14.5	13.7	0.78
Dwight Howard	37	36	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.32	-9	12	-21	16.3	14.1	2.22	14.8	13.6	1.20
Jared Dudley	32	34	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.16	-7	10	-17	15.7	14.5	1.24	14.5	13.8	0.74
Rajon Rondo	51	53	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.16	-10	13	-23	15.6	14.2	1.44	13.7	14.4	-0.69

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Silva	19	18	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.02	6	-9	15	13.3	14.2	-0.96	14.9	14.9	-0.02
Kelly Olynyk	42	42	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.17	8	-11	19	14.3	13.8	0.51	15.6	14.4	1.23
Tyler Herro	48	48	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.11	6	-9	15	14.5	13.6	0.84	14.8	15.0	-0.19
Derrick Jones Jr.	56	54	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.31	0	-3	3	14.6	13.4	1.21	15.0	14.8	0.28
Duncan Robinson	77	77	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-2	1	13.8	15.0	-1.19	14.6	15.8	-1.17
Jimmy Butler	78	78	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-1	-1	13.8	14.9	-1.06	14.8	15.5	-0.72
Meyers Leonard	31	32	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.03	-13	10	-23	13.8	14.1	-0.29	13.7	15.5	-1.85
Bam Adebayo	74	73	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.41	-8	5	-13	14.0	14.2	-0.15	15.1	14.3	0.82
Kendrick Nunn	75	73	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.37	-11	8	-19	14.0	14.0	0.00	15.2	14.0	1.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.72,0.59,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.82,0.76,0.73,0.73,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.36,0.2,0.17,0.28,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.12,0.21,0.19,0.27,0.19,0.02,0.1,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 97, LAC 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.32,0.21,0.09,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	91.6%
DAL 95, PHX 88	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.63,0.58,0.57,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.29,0.15,0.21,0.09,0.13,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.01,0	91.2%
MIN 84, DEN 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.59,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.59,0.6,0.49,0.39,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.29,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.38,0.28,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.14,0.12,0.22,0.19,0.04,0.09,0.08,0	90.7%