NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	110		Excitement	4.0 [916]		MVP	Nemanja Bjelica (SAC): +20.8%
Dallas Mavericks	106		Comeback	1.0 [336]		LVP	Luka Doncic (DAL): -20.2%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nemanja Bjelica	0.21	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21	0.26	0.01	0.06	18	83%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Buddy Hield	0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.23	0.00	0.06	15	84%	0.16	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Richaun Holmes	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.00	8	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	9	48%	0.04	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Yogi Ferrell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	6	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bogdan Bogdanovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	9	48%	0.00	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Cory Joseph	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1	-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	15	41%	-0.04	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.33	0.00	0.15	13	112%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	75%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Kristaps Porzingis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	12	54%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Justin Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Brunson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	5	27%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.03	-0.03	0.07	9	72%	-0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
J.J. Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Luka Doncic	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.2	-0.20	-0.05	-0.14	0.01	24	51%	-0.13	6	-0.07	5	80%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.5	26.4	14.5	23.3	2.5	33.3	124.0
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +39.0%

SAC +1.8%

SAC +3.4%

SAC +2.1%

SAC +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DAL	NBA	SAC	DAL	NBA
this game	16.8	15.2	14.2	123.6	116.5	109.6
season	14.3	14.5		109.0	115.2
opponent	14.1	14.5		111.3	110.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.5	17.8	18.0	18.8	16.8
DAL	14.2	17.4	15.5	13.9	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Harrison Barnes	68	70	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.16	11	-7	18	17.2	15.6	1.60	15.5	14.0	1.47
Bogdan Bogdanovic	50	52	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.31	3	1	2	16.6	17.1	-0.46	15.6	14.6	1.03
Cory Joseph	55	54	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.35	1	3	-2	17.1	16.5	0.55	14.3	16.5	-2.25
Nemanja Bjelica	61	65	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.08	14	-10	24	16.7	17.1	-0.39	15.7	13.9	1.75
Trevor Ariza	49	48	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.48	-8	12	-20	16.2	17.7	-1.51	15.7	14.6	1.13
Buddy Hield	64	67	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.21	1	3	-2	16.9	16.7	0.23	14.2	18.0	-3.78
Richaun Holmes	61	61	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.29	-2	6	-8	16.9	16.8	0.08	14.5	16.6	-2.17
Yogi Ferrell	37	38	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.19	0	4	-4	17.1	16.7	0.36	16.6	14.1	2.50

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Courtney Lee	6	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-5	6	16.8	15.1	1.77	18.2	16.7	1.42
J.J. Barea	33	35	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.54	14	-18	32	15.8	14.8	0.96	18.0	16.1	1.95
Jalen Brunson	7	7	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.08	-9	5	-14	20.1	14.8	5.38	15.7	16.9	-1.22
Dwight Powell	48	48	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	-1	-2	15.3	15.0	0.25	17.0	16.6	0.43
Kristaps Porzingis	70	69	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.55	11	-15	26	14.9	16.2	-1.38	17.3	15.2	2.12
Dorian Finney-Smith	65	63	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.09	-5	1	-6	15.1	15.3	-0.18	18.1	13.8	4.34
Maxi Kleber	26	23	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.26	-17	13	-30	15.4	15.1	0.35	14.0	17.8	-3.83
Justin Jackson	26	25	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.03	-9	5	-14	17.0	14.5	2.50	16.0	17.2	-1.12
Luka Doncic	69	67	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.40	4	-8	12	14.3	17.9	-3.60	16.8	16.9	-0.03
Tim Hardaway Jr.	71	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.34	0	-4	4	14.3	18.1	-3.81	16.6	17.6	-0.98
Seth Curry	34	33	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.22	-7	3	-10	15.8	14.8	1.03	14.9	18.0	-3.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 118, NYK 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
MIA 101, PHI 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.17,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%
DET 90, CHA 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0	95.9%