NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	121		Excitement	10.6 [60]		MVP	Kristaps Porzingis (DAL): +42.4%
Dallas Mavericks	119		Comeback	7.3 [139]		LVP	Luka Doncic (DAL): -26.0%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0.29	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.08,0.08,0.29	0.08	0.19	-0.02	20	57%	0.37	2	-0.07	9	78%	-0.02
Kent Bazemore	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.08,0.09	-0.00	0.11	0.01	8	58%	0.29	3	-0.19	3	67%	-0.01
Rodney Hood	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	0.00	0.02	12	77%	0.15	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Skal Labissiere	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.00	3	67%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach Collins	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	83%	0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.04	0.07	0.01	4	60%	0.11	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.03
Anfernee Simons	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,-0.02	0.11	-0.05	0.08	26	58%	0.09	2	-0.11	8	100%	0.04
Anthony Tolliver	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Hezonja	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kristaps Porzingis	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.28,0.42,0.42	0.42	0.15	0.30	0.03	23	57%	0.42	0	0.00	10	70%	0.06
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.09	0.00	10	55%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Delon Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	4	100%	0.11	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.06	-0.08	0.03	10	64%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Brunson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	6	31%	-0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	-0.00	7	50%	-0.03	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.01
Justin Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	6	21%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.15	-0.15	-0.04	-0.13	-0.02	6	43%	-0.12	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Luka Doncic	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,-0.26	-0.26	-0.00	-0.29	-0.04	22	50%	-0.14	4	-0.12	14	79%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	1.7	26.5	14.6	30.6	2.5	41.8	146.2
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +110.9%

DAL -17.0%

DAL -15.6%

DAL -14.2%

DAL -14.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DAL	NBA	POR	DAL	NBA
this game	13.0	13.6	14.2	111.0	110.2	109.6
season	14.4	14.5		111.9	115.2
opponent	14.1	13.9		111.3	113.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	14.1	11.7	12.9	13.2	13.0
DAL	11.6	15.1	13.3	14.4	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Hezonja	57	56	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.56	6	-4	10	12.5	13.5	-1.03	13.9	13.2	0.64
CJ McCollum	92	92	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.25	12	-10	22	12.7	14.5	-1.86	14.2	10.2	3.91
Kent Bazemore	69	69	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.54	2	0	2	13.5	12.1	1.40	12.9	14.8	-1.94
Damian Lillard	86	86	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.46	-1	3	-4	13.1	12.3	0.84	13.4	14.2	-0.75
Skal Labissiere	12	12	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.11	7	-5	12	13.0	13.0	0.04	14.8	13.4	1.41
Anfernee Simons	36	35	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.08	2	0	2	12.7	13.1	-0.40	13.0	13.8	-0.82
Zach Collins	55	56	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.19	10	-8	18	12.0	13.9	-1.87	14.4	12.7	1.72
Rodney Hood	71	70	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.36	-9	11	-20	13.4	12.2	1.16	13.5	13.8	-0.36
Hassan Whiteside	59	56	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	-0.15	-4	6	-10	13.1	12.8	0.26	13.7	13.4	0.31
Anthony Tolliver	8	8	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	0.17	-15	17	-32	16.5	12.7	3.82	7.2	14.1	-6.84

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maxi Kleber	55	58	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.12	2	-4	6	13.2	14.0	-0.78	13.1	12.8	0.26
Dorian Finney-Smith	62	64	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.46	11	-13	24	12.9	14.5	-1.63	14.0	11.5	2.47
Justin Jackson	40	41	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.11	-9	7	-16	15.1	12.7	2.49	12.0	13.5	-1.54
Jalen Brunson	59	59	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.34	6	-8	14	14.4	12.7	1.70	12.8	13.2	-0.36
Delon Wright	53	53	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.02	-9	7	-16	14.0	13.2	0.78	12.6	13.3	-0.63
Luka Doncic	84	84	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.40	5	-7	12	13.4	14.2	-0.86	13.2	12.2	1.04
Seth Curry	57	58	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.50	1	-3	4	13.0	14.3	-1.27	12.8	13.1	-0.25
Kristaps Porzingis	79	76	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.27	-7	5	-12	14.1	12.2	1.93	12.6	13.7	-1.05
Tim Hardaway Jr.	51	52	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.25	-10	8	-18	12.5	14.6	-2.07	13.1	12.9	0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.53,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.75,0.68,0.65,0.77,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.24,0.32,0.36,0.59,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.65,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 78, IND 76	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.86,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.81,0.77,0.68,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.54,0.57,0.48,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.42,0	90.7%
TOR 108, PHI 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.73,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.64,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.28,0.23,0.3,0.46,0.4,0.32,0.28,0.43,0.27,0	89.7%
OKC 124, PHX 116	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.76,0.79,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.84,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.82,0.75,0.69,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.37,0.37,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.4,0.31,0.43,0.55,0.42,0	89.4%