NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	108		Excitement	6.2 [611]		MVP	Monte Morris (DEN): +22.9%
Utah Jazz	118		Comeback	1.4 [784]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -14.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monte Morris	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.16	0.07	-0.00	13	73%	0.23	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Malik Beasley	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.25,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.20	0.04	0.03	13	86%	0.25	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	-0.01	0.01	-0.13	7	53%	0.12	1	-0.00	5	40%	0.02
Jarred Vanderbilt	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Juancho Hernangomez	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.01	15	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	21	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Torrey Craig	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.00	-0.01	0.04	2	75%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	7	28%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.02
Nikola Jokic	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	0.00	6	14%	-0.13	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donovan Mitchell	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.21	0.01	0.02	26	68%	0.32	4	-0.12	16	81%	0.02
Rudy Gobert	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.06	0.02	12	61%	0.14	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.02
Derrick Favors	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.05	-0.04	12	59%	0.16	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.01	4	64%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
Georges Niang	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.02	5	70%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Ingles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	62%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Cavanaugh	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Naz Mitrou-Long	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0	0%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royce O'Neale	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	7	53%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Grayson Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	2	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.4	29.7	15.3	29.5	1.8	33.0	134.8
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +32.6%

UTA +19.9%

UTA +13.8%

DEN -16.8%

UTA +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	15.1	14.0	14.3	110.2	119.2	109.3
season	14.8	14.3		112.0	109.3
opponent	14.3	14.6		105.2	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.0	13.6	16.1	15.8	15.1
UTA	14.7	13.0	15.2	13.2	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Torrey Craig	44	45	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.18	11	-21	32	13.2	16.6	-3.43	14.1	13.9	0.24
Jarred Vanderbilt	6	8	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.19	7	-17	24	10.0	15.4	-5.40	13.2	14.0	-0.77
Juancho Hernangomez	19	22	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.26	6	-16	22	14.1	15.3	-1.26	13.7	14.0	-0.36
Monte Morris	62	62	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.42	8	-18	26	14.6	15.9	-1.25	14.0	13.8	0.19
Malik Beasley	65	66	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.17	-2	-8	6	14.5	16.3	-1.81	13.9	14.2	-0.29
Gary Harris	45	44	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.08	-12	2	-14	15.9	14.3	1.59	13.8	14.1	-0.30
Mason Plumlee	68	70	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.15	-6	-4	-2	15.6	13.9	1.74	14.0	13.9	0.04
Will Barton	41	41	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.10	-15	5	-20	16.0	14.4	1.60	14.5	13.6	0.86
Nikola Jokic	33	31	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.07	-15	5	-20	16.2	14.5	1.67	14.0	13.9	0.11
Paul Millsap	43	43	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.01	-14	4	-18	15.9	14.4	1.53	13.9	14.0	-0.18
Jamal Murray	64	63	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.09	-18	8	-26	15.3	14.6	0.65	13.9	14.1	-0.19

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donovan Mitchell	70	71	0.67	-0.17	0.84	-0.03	24	-14	38	14.5	12.7	1.75	15.8	13.1	2.76
Rudy Gobert	68	67	0.66	-0.16	0.82	-0.10	26	-16	42	14.3	13.3	1.02	15.7	13.7	1.99
Royce O'Neale	72	72	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.11	20	-10	30	14.4	12.8	1.57	15.5	13.9	1.62
Joe Ingles	71	73	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.06	14	-4	18	13.7	14.5	-0.80	15.4	14.2	1.22
Thabo Sefolosha	24	25	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.04	9	1	8	13.0	14.3	-1.32	15.5	14.9	0.60
Georges Niang	47	46	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.40	-9	19	-28	13.3	14.6	-1.26	14.5	15.6	-1.08
Derrick Favors	47	49	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.12	-2	12	-14	13.9	14.0	-0.09	15.0	15.1	-0.06
Jae Crowder	49	47	0.06	0.45	-0.39	0.08	-1	11	-12	14.8	13.2	1.62	14.9	15.3	-0.38
Tyler Cavanaugh	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	16	-22	10.4	14.1	-3.75	9.7	15.3	-5.55
Naz Mitrou-Long	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	16	-22	10.4	14.1	-3.75	9.7	15.3	-5.55
Ekpe Udoh	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	16	-22	10.4	14.1	-3.75	9.7	15.3	-5.55
Grayson Allen	32	28	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.24	-13	23	-36	13.9	14.0	-0.08	12.9	15.9	-3.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.55,0.66,0.77,0.85,0.7,0.72,0.62,0.72,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 105, BKN 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.76,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.85,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.93,0.97,0.96,1	94.4%
LAC 84, POR 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.78,0.72,0.58,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.86,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.98,1,1,1	93.6%
ORL 90, NYK 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.69,0.65,0.7,0.72,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.69,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.7,0.75,0.66,0.62,0.82,0.72,0.63,0.83,0.94,0.93,0.97,1,1,1,1	93.6%