NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	105		Excitement	5.6 [741]		MVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): +18.8%
Boston Celtics	110		Comeback	1.0 [1123]		LVP	Dion Waiters (MIA): -11.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.01	0.02	20	70%	0.23	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.14	0.01	0.07	12	73%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02	0.01	-0.02	-0.03	11	56%	0.13	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.03
Ryan Anderson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	17	49%	0.05	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	4	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
James Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	8	37%	-0.02	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Dion Waiters	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	14	47%	-0.05	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jayson Tatum	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.07	-0.02	15	59%	0.19	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Smart	0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.00	0.02	11	73%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.00	0.03	13	61%	0.07	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.01
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	7	69%	0.07	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	-0.04	19	57%	0.14	6	-0.11	6	100%	0.02
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	11	36%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Semi Ojeleye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	67%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Guerschon Yabusele	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	42%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Daniel Theis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	7	22%	-0.10	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.8	27.5	14.8	23.4	2.4	29.2	124.0
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +12.8%

MIA -2.1%

BOS +21.9%

BOS +13.6%

BOS +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	13.9	15.1	14.3	105.0	111.1	109.3
season	14.8	13.9		106.3	109.9
opponent	14.7	14.3		106.3	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.8	15.8	11.6	12.5	13.9
BOS	13.0	14.9	16.8	15.7	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Anderson	13	12	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.10	2	-7	9	13.9	13.9	0.06	15.8	15.0	0.86
James Johnson	49	49	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.19	1	-6	7	12.9	14.8	-1.99	15.5	14.7	0.85
Dwyane Wade	62	62	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.43	7	-12	19	12.9	15.4	-2.54	15.5	14.4	1.12
Bam Adebayo	63	65	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.17	-2	-3	1	14.0	13.7	0.22	15.0	15.3	-0.37
Hassan Whiteside	37	34	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.19	-3	-2	-1	13.7	14.0	-0.22	15.3	15.0	0.37
Derrick Jones Jr.	34	35	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.20	-19	14	-33	16.9	12.3	4.56	13.4	16.0	-2.56
Kelly Olynyk	83	82	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-4	3	13.8	14.4	-0.58	15.2	14.6	0.59
Goran Dragic	81	81	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.30	-3	-2	-1	13.4	16.0	-2.63	15.0	15.4	-0.38
Dion Waiters	78	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.25	-7	2	-9	14.6	11.4	3.21	15.1	15.1	-0.06

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyrie Irving	69	67	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.13	17	-12	29	14.8	15.7	-0.84	14.2	13.3	0.89
Al Horford	72	72	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.27	10	-5	15	14.7	16.1	-1.42	13.9	13.7	0.17
Jayson Tatum	70	69	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.03	15	-10	25	14.9	15.6	-0.76	13.6	14.5	-0.89
Marcus Smart	57	57	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.16	6	-1	7	14.0	16.5	-2.46	14.1	13.6	0.47
Aron Baynes	51	51	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.16	3	2	1	16.1	14.0	2.18	13.7	14.1	-0.37
Daniel Theis	12	12	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.01	3	2	1	14.9	15.1	-0.19	16.1	13.6	2.52
Guerschon Yabusele	4	4	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.04	4	1	3	17.5	15.0	2.52	22.5	13.5	8.99
Gordon Hayward	61	64	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.35	-10	15	-25	14.7	15.7	-0.94	12.9	15.7	-2.81
Marcus Morris	50	52	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.18	-5	10	-15	15.2	15.0	0.20	13.2	14.6	-1.33
Semi Ojeleye	11	12	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.19	-6	11	-17	14.3	15.2	-0.91	17.2	13.4	3.75
Terry Rozier	38	40	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.35	-12	17	-29	17.3	13.7	3.63	13.6	14.0	-0.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.83,0.82,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.8,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.89,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.8,0.81,0.73,0.74,0.86,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.9,0.85,0.85,0.91,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.95,0.93,0.9,0.86,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 101, IND 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.83,0.79,0.84,0.83,0.92,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.8,0.74,0.86,0.8,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.96,0.99,1	94.1%
NJN 94, LAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.69,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.76,0.76,0.78,0.83,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.92,0.9,0.88,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.89,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.68,0.79,0.79,0.84,0.72,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.76,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.91,0.99,1	93.8%
POR 103, MIN 113	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.93,0.85,0.94,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	93.6%