NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	113		Excitement	7.9 [329]		MVP	Jeff Green (WAS): +27.9%
Washington Wizards	108		Comeback	3.8 [297]		LVP	Jabari Parker (WAS): -15.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.2,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.28	0.05	0.21	-0.01	16	59%	0.32	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Dion Waiters	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.15	0.04	0.01	13	70%	0.17	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0.09	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	9	78%	0.14	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.00	0.08	0.00	11	50%	0.17	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.04
Josh Richardson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	12	64%	0.12	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Goran Dragic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.04	0.01	9	41%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Hassan Whiteside	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	11	62%	0.11	5	-0.12	4	100%	0.01
Derrick Jones Jr.	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.19	0.09	0.00	12	89%	0.34	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Chasson Randle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.02	4	50%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.03	0.00	15	44%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Thomas Bryant	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.01	0.03	13	65%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jordan McRae	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	6	38%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.06,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	14	50%	0.04	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.04
Tomas Satoransky	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	13	43%	-0.02	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Troy Brown Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	9	32%	-0.05	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Jabari Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	10	27%	-0.04	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.3	28.7	14.7	29.1	1.7	37.4	138.2
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +50.7%

MIA +2.5%

WAS -13.1%

MIA +8.2%

MIA +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	15.4	14.9	14.3	118.9	113.7	109.3
season	14.8	13.8		106.3	109.8
opponent	14.3	14.3		112.4	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.3	14.1	14.3	17.0	15.4
WAS	15.6	14.2	17.0	13.0	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelly Olynyk	74	75	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.23	19	-14	33	15.7	14.6	1.06	15.4	12.7	2.69
Bam Adebayo	68	69	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.20	16	-11	27	15.6	15.1	0.46	15.4	13.5	1.89
Josh Richardson	79	77	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.42	0	5	-5	15.5	15.2	0.31	14.7	15.5	-0.77
Dion Waiters	52	51	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.05	15	-10	25	15.4	15.5	-0.04	16.5	13.0	3.41
Dwyane Wade	56	58	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.43	-3	8	-11	14.9	16.2	-1.21	13.8	16.5	-2.73
Derrick Jones Jr.	28	30	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.08	7	-2	9	15.9	15.3	0.64	16.1	14.3	1.84
Goran Dragic	60	59	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.34	-9	14	-23	15.4	15.4	0.02	13.5	17.2	-3.74
Hassan Whiteside	12	11	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.08	-8	13	-21	14.4	15.6	-1.17	12.5	15.2	-2.63
James Johnson	46	45	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.18	-12	17	-29	15.4	15.5	-0.10	14.6	15.2	-0.60

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chasson Randle	24	25	0.26	-0.76	1.01	-0.07	11	-16	27	13.8	15.2	-1.45	15.1	15.6	-0.44
Jordan McRae	36	34	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.16	7	-12	19	14.2	15.3	-1.05	13.0	16.8	-3.85
Jabari Parker	53	53	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.18	5	-10	15	13.8	16.3	-2.53	14.9	16.1	-1.13
Jeff Green	50	51	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.20	5	-10	15	13.5	16.4	-2.98	14.9	16.0	-1.12
Bobby Portis	58	59	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.19	1	-6	7	15.8	13.4	2.49	15.2	15.8	-0.63
Tomas Satoransky	69	68	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.31	-5	0	-5	15.3	13.7	1.68	16.4	13.1	3.31
Troy Brown Jr.	49	49	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.10	-14	9	-23	16.0	13.7	2.24	16.0	14.9	1.11
Bradley Beal	67	66	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.23	-14	9	-23	15.1	14.4	0.68	16.0	14.2	1.83
Thomas Bryant	69	70	-0.94	0.44	-1.38	-0.32	-21	16	-37	15.2	13.9	1.31	15.9	14.2	1.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.74,0.67,0.57,0.5,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.38,0.27,0.33,0.36,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.29,0.15,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.2,0.01,0.02,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 97, ATL 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.72,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.19,0.3,0.25,0.18,0.1,0.03,0.04,0.02,0	92.5%
NOH 95, MIL 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.5,0.56,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0,0	91.6%
MIL 111, ORL 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.12,0.14,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.07,0.09,0.04,0	91.4%