NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	97		Excitement	5.9 [658]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +28.8%
Atlanta Hawks	90		Comeback	3.0 [622]		LVP	Matt Bonner (SAS): -9.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.29	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.19,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.29	0.02	0.23	-0.04	12	60%	0.36	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.07
Tim Duncan	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.04	0.00	8	77%	0.16	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Tony Parker	0.15	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.15	0.12	0.07	0.04	16	68%	0.19	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
DeJuan Blair	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
George Hill	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	9	65%	0.13	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.02
Antonio McDyess	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	7	56%	0.04	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Jefferson	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Gary Neal	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.00	8	12%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.04	0.01	7	68%	0.14	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.04
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	0	100%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.01	13	74%	0.13	4	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	57%	0.06	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Jason Collins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	7	57%	0.06	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	23	42%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Al Horford	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	15	40%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	1.7	28.2	15.7	23.6	1.8	51.2	144.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +16.5%

SAS +14.9%

SAS +29.2%

ATL -9.9%

ATL -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	ATL	NBA	SAS	ATL	NBA
this game	16.6	15.8	15.5	107.8	102.3	105.7
season	15.5	16.5		109.3	104.0
opponent	15.5	15.2		105.1	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.9	17.8	16.0	15.7	16.6
ATL	16.6	14.9	16.7	15.0	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	62	59	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.19	12	-5	17	15.5	19.0	-3.57	15.5	16.4	-0.96
Antonio McDyess	46	44	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.16	11	-4	15	18.6	14.4	4.20	17.3	14.3	3.00
Tim Duncan	61	60	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.18	10	-3	13	18.0	13.5	4.52	16.7	13.7	3.02
Tony Parker	62	62	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.16	7	0	7	17.4	14.7	2.71	16.7	13.5	3.23
George Hill	64	63	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.34	-1	8	-9	16.0	17.9	-1.89	14.7	18.4	-3.73
Richard Jefferson	55	52	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.05	8	-1	9	17.7	14.8	2.86	16.9	14.1	2.76
Gary Neal	32	31	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.13	-3	10	-13	14.9	17.5	-2.64	14.2	16.6	-2.39
DeJuan Blair	27	27	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.11	-3	10	-13	14.1	17.7	-3.58	13.8	16.7	-2.88
Matt Bonner	41	42	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.15	-6	13	-19	14.9	18.0	-3.17	14.5	17.0	-2.48

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Teague	31	34	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.11	5	-12	17	13.6	16.9	-3.33	14.4	17.9	-3.48
Jason Collins	19	19	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.06	-3	-4	1	18.1	15.1	2.91	18.9	16.0	2.94
Hilton Armstrong	6	5	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-5	3	14.8	15.8	-1.01	20.2	16.4	3.84
Damien Wilkins	21	21	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-6	5	13.3	16.6	-3.27	14.5	17.2	-2.74
Etan Thomas	7	7	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-4	1	15.4	15.8	-0.37	12.4	16.9	-4.50
Zaza Pachulia	50	51	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.27	3	-10	13	15.7	15.9	-0.17	17.3	15.6	1.70
Jamal Crawford	59	61	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.31	2	-9	11	15.0	17.3	-2.29	15.7	18.4	-2.66
Al Horford	68	71	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.23	-5	-2	-3	16.2	14.4	1.71	16.9	15.4	1.47
Joe Johnson	65	66	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.22	-6	-1	-5	16.7	13.1	3.58	17.5	14.1	3.40
Marvin Williams	56	57	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.08	-11	4	-15	15.4	16.4	-1.00	15.7	18.1	-2.34
Kirk Hinrich	58	58	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.14	-14	7	-21	16.9	13.6	3.30	17.7	14.5	3.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.72,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.19,0.3,0.25,0.18,0.1,0.03,0.04,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 111, ORL 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.12,0.14,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.07,0.09,0.04,0	94.2%
DAL 95, PHX 88	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.63,0.58,0.57,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.29,0.15,0.21,0.09,0.13,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.01,0	93.2%
UTA 97, PHX 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.73,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.43,0.29,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.04,0	93.2%