NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	101		Excitement	5.1 [837]		MVP	Kelly Olynyk (MIA): +16.8%
Miami Heat	106		Comeback	1.0 [608]		LVP	Justise Winslow (MIA): -9.3%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Davis	0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.27	0.00	0.12	23	73%	0.20	2	-0.04	10	90%	0.03
Tim Frazier	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Nikola Mirotic	0.00	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0	0.04	-0.03	0.01	11	62%	0.03	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Cheick Diallo	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Miller	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Julius Randle	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.01	-0.03	6	44%	0.03	4	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01
Jrue Holiday	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.04,-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	20	47%	0.01	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.01
Ian Clark	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Hill	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	10	27%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.08	-0.01	8	72%	0.17	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	11	48%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.01	5	80%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.05	0.05	0.04	-0.00	-0.02	15	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.02	8	67%	0.03	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.02
James Johnson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	22	43%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	7	35%	-0.01	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.02	11	38%	-0.09	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	1.8	27.8	14.0	28.2	2.4	36.5	137.4
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +38.1%

NOP -16.4%

MIA +12.2%

MIA +12.7%

MIA +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	MIA	NBA	NOP	MIA	NBA
this game	13.4	15.6	14.3	102.0	107.1	109.3
season	13.4	14.8		110.2	106.3
opponent	14.3	14.2		106.7	111.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	15.4	13.1	11.0	14.3	13.4
MIA	13.9	14.6	17.1	17.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cheick Diallo	13	13	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.20	8	-13	21	8.3	14.2	-5.91	17.2	15.4	1.82
Wesley Johnson	16	16	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.17	-9	4	-13	14.6	13.2	1.33	13.1	16.1	-3.01
Tim Frazier	51	51	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.45	12	-17	29	12.6	14.3	-1.64	16.0	15.2	0.77
Ian Clark	29	28	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.03	-6	1	-7	14.4	13.1	1.32	15.3	15.8	-0.50
E'Twaun Moore	51	54	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-5	5	14.6	12.2	2.44	16.3	14.9	1.43
Darius Miller	17	16	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.04	-6	1	-7	11.8	13.8	-2.03	14.1	16.0	-1.89
Jrue Holiday	83	83	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.45	5	-10	15	12.6	17.9	-5.36	16.0	13.9	2.04
Anthony Davis	85	85	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.57	9	-14	23	13.1	15.4	-2.23	15.9	13.9	2.00
Solomon Hill	38	37	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.04	-14	9	-23	15.0	12.5	2.52	15.6	15.7	-0.04
Julius Randle	53	51	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.02	-14	9	-23	14.2	12.6	1.60	15.3	16.0	-0.77
Nikola Mirotic	59	61	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.12	-10	5	-15	14.0	12.7	1.29	15.1	16.4	-1.30

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelly Olynyk	49	51	0.58	-0.08	0.66	-0.01	20	-15	35	15.8	15.5	0.30	14.2	12.6	1.59
Bam Adebayo	56	56	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.07	13	-8	21	15.2	16.3	-1.08	14.4	12.2	2.22
Justise Winslow	47	48	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.12	9	-4	13	15.7	15.6	0.07	14.1	12.9	1.20
Dwyane Wade	57	56	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	0	5	15.3	16.2	-0.90	13.1	13.9	-0.86
Josh Richardson	76	76	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.53	-7	12	-19	15.7	15.6	0.05	12.8	15.5	-2.65
Rodney McGruder	55	54	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.11	12	-7	19	15.2	16.2	-0.96	14.5	12.2	2.24
Wayne Ellington	71	70	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.47	-10	15	-25	16.1	14.5	1.65	12.8	14.9	-2.05
Hassan Whiteside	43	43	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.28	-8	13	-21	16.3	15.2	1.08	12.2	14.4	-2.22
James Johnson	41	41	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.21	-9	14	-23	15.7	15.6	0.10	13.1	13.7	-0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.72,0.73,0.8,0.83,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.77,0.78,0.68,0.74,0.85,0.79,0.76,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.97,0.93,0.97,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 98, NOH 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.65,0.75,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.89,0.87,0.81,0.87,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	94.1%
MIN 108, OKC 116	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.84,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.87,0.83,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.8%
SEA 111, DEN 122	0.5,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.91,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.67,0.63,0.83,0.8,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.7%