NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	98		Excitement	8.2 [286]		MVP	Eric Bledsoe (MIL): +31.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	104		Comeback	8.4 [327]		LVP	Gary Harris (DEN): -14.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Beasley	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.11	0.09	-0.00	7	86%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,-0.06,-0.06,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	18	54%	0.16	3	-0.14	1	100%	0.01
Monte Morris	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	9	56%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.04	9	40%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Mason Plumlee	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	3	62%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Trey Lyles	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	35%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03
Juancho Hernangomez	-0.07	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	10	29%	-0.04	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	14	57%	0.10	5	-0.20	2	50%	-0.03
Gary Harris	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.15	-0.04	-0.11	0.00	16	44%	-0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Bledsoe	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.10	0.21	-0.00	10	79%	0.43	4	-0.12	9	44%	-0.06
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.03	-0.01	3	83%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.09	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	11	52%	0.14	3	-0.12	3	67%	-0.01
Brook Lopez	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	10	40%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Thon Maker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sterling Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	15	38%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.06	0.02	25	52%	-0.00	4	-0.09	6	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.8	25.3	14.5	30.4	2.5	28.6	127.8
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +31.8%

DEN -1.8%

MIL +16.8%

MIL +0.6%

MIL +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIL	NBA	DEN	MIL	NBA
this game	15.5	13.1	14.3	98.0	103.0	109.3
season	14.8	13.5		112.0	112.4
opponent	14.3	14.6		104.0	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.0	15.1	16.5	17.0	15.5
MIL	11.8	14.9	11.8	14.5	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mason Plumlee	33	34	0.25	-0.75	1.00	-0.04	10	-16	26	15.9	15.3	0.60	12.6	13.4	-0.73
Monte Morris	50	49	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.19	8	-14	22	16.6	14.5	2.16	13.6	12.7	0.82
Trey Lyles	35	34	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.14	5	-11	16	16.3	15.1	1.15	12.1	13.6	-1.48
Malik Beasley	46	47	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.17	-1	-5	4	16.4	14.8	1.54	12.7	13.5	-0.80
Juancho Hernangomez	60	60	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.22	-6	0	-6	15.2	16.0	-0.81	13.6	12.4	1.16
Paul Millsap	59	61	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	4	-14	14.8	16.6	-1.85	13.5	12.5	1.04
Jamal Murray	80	81	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.21	-8	2	-10	15.0	17.8	-2.82	12.5	15.5	-3.02
Gary Harris	70	72	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.25	-12	6	-18	15.4	15.8	-0.42	13.5	12.2	1.34
Nikola Jokic	67	67	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.28	-16	10	-26	15.3	15.9	-0.60	13.4	12.6	0.73

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Giannis Antetokounmpo	86	85	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.36	11	-5	16	12.7	15.8	-3.14	15.1	17.8	-2.66
Brook Lopez	70	68	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.21	13	-7	20	13.3	12.8	0.46	15.3	16.0	-0.63
Eric Bledsoe	74	72	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.32	7	-1	8	13.3	12.6	0.78	15.6	15.3	0.30
Khris Middleton	77	75	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.21	6	0	6	13.5	12.0	1.43	15.4	15.8	-0.40
Pat Connaughton	36	36	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.12	3	3	0	13.2	13.1	0.06	15.9	15.3	0.55
Tony Snell	39	41	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.17	0	6	-6	12.3	13.6	-1.30	15.9	15.3	0.53
Malcolm Brogdon	68	65	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.11	0	6	-6	12.8	13.9	-1.11	15.2	16.1	-0.84
Ersan Ilyasova	36	38	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	3	0	13.1	13.2	-0.11	16.8	14.8	2.06
Sterling Brown	11	12	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	8	-10	15.7	12.8	2.92	15.7	15.5	0.14
Thon Maker	8	8	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.11	-11	17	-28	15.2	12.9	2.30	14.6	15.6	-0.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.25,0.17,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.2,0.22,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.35,0.35,0.25,0.34,0.48,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.47,0.46,0.66,0.76,0.72,0.98,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 106, DET 110	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.26,0.36,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.38,0.29,0.24,0.34,0.48,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.53,0.67,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.73,0.75,0.93,0.97,0.99,1	94.1%
POR 79, WAS 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.44,0.55,0.54,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.69,0.63,0.94,0.99,1	91.9%
MIL 104, MIA 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.27,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.19,0.24,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.28,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.72,0.85,0.96,1	91.3%