NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	113		Excitement	11.7 [37]		MVP	Kelly Olynyk (MIA): +95.6%
Washington Wizards	112		Comeback	18.8 [85]		LVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): -39.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelly Olynyk	0.96	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.96	0.07	0.89	-0.00	6	75%	0.96	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.12	0.08	0.00	12	74%	0.25	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Josh Richardson	0.19	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,-0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.19	0.06	0.13	0.01	21	56%	0.25	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.01
Derrick Jones Jr.	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	-0.04	0.02	10	59%	0.03	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.02
Tyler Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	9	45%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	53%	0.02	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.04
Bam Adebayo	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	4	33%	-0.03	3	-0.09	4	50%	-0.02
Dwyane Wade	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.03,-0.22	-0.10	-0.13	-0.01	11	37%	-0.14	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Goran Dragic	-0.40	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.15,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.31,-0.31,-0.4,-0.4	-0.21	-0.19	-0.00	18	22%	-0.33	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.06	0.15	-0.01	12	63%	0.29	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.05,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.08	0.00	16	53%	0.15	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.00
John Wall	0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	16	62%	0.24	3	-0.13	10	70%	0.02
Otto Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Tomas Satoransky	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	2	67%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Austin Rivers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.00	7	56%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jordan McRae	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	8	41%	-0.01	1	-0.03	6	83%	-0.01
Markieff Morris	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.11	0.01	8	55%	-0.07	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.5	1.8	33.3	14.7	37.0	1.8	36.3	154.4
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +49.0%

WAS -26.1%

MIA +57.9%

WAS -39.9%

MIA +9.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	14.4	12.6	14.3	105.6	105.7	109.3
season	14.8	13.8		106.3	109.8
opponent	14.3	14.3		112.4	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.1	14.0	13.5	16.7	14.4
WAS	13.1	11.7	11.3	14.6	12.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	87	85	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.54	0	1	-1	14.7	13.2	1.54	12.4	13.4	-0.99
Goran Dragic	72	71	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.54	0	1	-1	13.8	15.7	-1.92	12.1	13.6	-1.47
Rodney McGruder	77	76	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.52	-1	2	-3	14.2	15.2	-1.04	12.2	13.4	-1.18
Kelly Olynyk	31	32	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.45	0	1	-1	16.7	13.5	3.14	13.2	12.3	0.86
Tyler Johnson	53	52	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.02	9	-8	17	14.6	14.3	0.31	13.3	11.9	1.49
Dwyane Wade	57	58	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.27	0	1	-1	15.0	13.8	1.14	12.7	12.4	0.35
Bam Adebayo	37	38	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.04	4	-3	7	14.6	14.4	0.22	13.4	12.1	1.34
Derrick Jones Jr.	53	53	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.03	-3	4	-7	13.7	15.2	-1.49	12.8	12.4	0.38
Hassan Whiteside	68	65	-0.10	0.59	-0.69	0.02	-4	5	-9	14.0	15.2	-1.23	12.1	13.4	-1.35

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ian Mahinmi	26	27	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.03	3	-4	7	12.3	12.7	-0.32	14.4	14.4	-0.01
Tomas Satoransky	30	29	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.05	0	-1	1	13.4	12.2	1.18	15.3	14.1	1.23
Kelly Oubre Jr.	43	42	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.11	-3	2	-5	13.8	11.8	2.03	14.6	14.4	0.20
Austin Rivers	54	53	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-1	1	13.3	11.9	1.41	15.0	13.9	1.13
Jason Smith	36	35	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.03	-5	4	-9	12.5	12.6	-0.13	13.3	15.0	-1.64
John Wall	81	84	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.55	6	-7	13	12.0	14.5	-2.48	14.0	16.1	-2.09
Jeff Green	69	69	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.39	0	-1	1	12.6	12.6	0.03	15.3	12.9	2.41
Markieff Morris	56	58	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.47	-1	0	-1	12.0	13.2	-1.16	14.0	15.0	-0.94
Otto Porter Jr.	73	74	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.59	1	-2	3	12.4	13.1	-0.73	14.9	13.5	1.44
Bradley Beal	62	64	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.50	-6	5	-11	12.4	12.8	-0.44	13.6	15.7	-2.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.4,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.72,0.53,0.61,0.59,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 111, PHX 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.69,0.74,0.68,0.78,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.83,0.65,0.73,0.45,0.77,0.55,0.27,0	91.3%
CHA 83, CHI 82	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.65,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.58,0	90.8%
NOK 86, LAC 83	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.43,0.33,0.22,0.33,0.42,0.52,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.54,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.54,0.45,0.42,0	90.7%