NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	90		Excitement	4.1 [1022]		MVP	Bradley Beal (WAS): +12.8%
San Antonio Spurs	98		Comeback	1.6 [951]		LVP	Tomas Satoransky (WAS): -13.7%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bradley Beal	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.01	0.01	13	78%	0.18	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Jason Smith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Frazier	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	5	20%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.07	-0.01	0.08	17	62%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	3	70%	0.06	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Ian Mahinmi	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.08	8	57%	-0.03	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
Otto Porter Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	13	46%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Markieff Morris	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	6	36%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Ramon Sessions	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	8	35%	-0.02	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Tomas Satoransky	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.15	-0.04	-0.05	8	0%	-0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.02	0.03	23	55%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	8	89%	0.14	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	7	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.01	0.03	6	69%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	62%	0.06	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joffrey Lauvergne	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	4	67%	0.02	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	9	35%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Danny Green	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.02	-0.04	10	35%	-0.04	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	3.7	29.2	14.5	27.4	3.4	28.6	129.0
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +20.9%

SAS +8.3%

SAS +9.8%

SAS +10.0%

SAS +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	SAS	NBA	WAS	SAS	NBA
this game	15.4	16.4	14.7	98.9	108.9	107.5
season	14.8	15.5		108.2	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.7		104.1	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	17.2	14.0	17.2	13.9	15.4
SAS	17.1	14.8	18.8	15.5	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ian Mahinmi	47	48	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.33	12	-20	32	14.1	16.8	-2.69	15.6	17.4	-1.75
Jason Smith	8	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.32	11	-19	30	11.1	15.8	-4.69	16.6	16.4	0.15
Tim Frazier	27	25	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.28	8	-16	24	14.4	15.8	-1.42	15.6	16.8	-1.19
Ramon Sessions	48	49	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.29	8	-16	24	14.7	16.1	-1.39	15.2	17.9	-2.67
Kelly Oubre Jr.	65	64	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-8	8	15.2	15.8	-0.62	15.6	18.3	-2.71
Tomas Satoransky	60	59	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.06	-9	1	-10	15.0	16.2	-1.19	17.3	14.7	2.61
Marcin Gortat	37	36	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.01	-12	4	-16	15.5	15.3	0.18	17.2	15.9	1.24
Markieff Morris	43	42	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.07	-18	10	-28	17.3	13.7	3.59	18.1	15.0	3.09
Otto Porter Jr.	65	64	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.10	-20	12	-32	15.8	14.3	1.54	16.1	17.3	-1.19
Bradley Beal	55	54	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	0.05	-20	12	-32	16.8	13.3	3.48	17.2	15.2	1.95

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Anderson	55	55	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.24	24	-16	40	16.6	16.2	0.41	16.4	13.9	2.51
LaMarcus Aldridge	55	56	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.21	21	-13	34	17.2	15.3	1.91	16.4	13.8	2.56
Patty Mills	56	58	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	-2	12	17.7	14.3	3.47	15.3	15.6	-0.27
Dejounte Murray	51	54	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.03	12	-4	16	17.7	14.8	2.92	15.6	15.1	0.50
Danny Green	53	53	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.10	13	-5	18	17.2	15.4	1.77	15.2	15.7	-0.43
Manu Ginobili	32	33	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.11	13	-5	18	14.5	17.5	-2.93	17.8	14.1	3.69
Tony Parker	33	32	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.09	3	5	-2	14.3	17.6	-3.30	15.7	15.3	0.43
Rudy Gay	40	39	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.38	-10	18	-28	14.8	17.7	-2.83	13.8	16.6	-2.78
Davis Bertans	12	11	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.32	-9	17	-26	16.2	16.5	-0.29	12.9	15.7	-2.84
Bryn Forbes	17	18	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.38	-12	20	-32	15.4	16.7	-1.32	14.1	15.7	-1.68
Pau Gasol	30	31	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.11	-3	11	-14	15.8	16.7	-0.88	15.2	15.5	-0.32
Joffrey Lauvergne	9	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.32	-11	19	-30	16.6	16.4	0.15	11.1	15.8	-4.69
Brandon Paul	7	7	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.32	-11	19	-30	17.0	16.4	0.63	10.0	15.9	-5.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.67,0.76,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 93, OKC 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	95.7%
LAC 94, UTA 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.84,0.89,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
NYK 80, LAC 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.86,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.98,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.4%