NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	104		Excitement	2.6 [1244]		MVP	Gary Harris (DEN): +13.5%
Denver Nuggets	130		Comeback	1.1 [1290]		LVP	Bogdan Bogdanovic (SAC): -5.9%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Buddy Hield	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	15	60%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	0.00	0.03	10	70%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	-0.00	-0.06	14	43%	0.01	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	5	58%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Justin Jackson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	0.00	0.05	5	67%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bruno Caboclo	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
De'Aaron Fox	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.02	9	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Frank Mason	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	0.00	0.06	6	56%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	100%	0.01
Willie Cauley-Stein	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.01	0.05	11	46%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bogdan Bogdanovic	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	10	27%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.13	0.00	-0.00	16	64%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.01	-0.04	5	69%	0.09	1	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.17	0.00	0.08	10	100%	0.09	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	0.01	0.06	9	73%	0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.03	16	59%	0.05	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.08	0.00	0.07	9	64%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	5	64%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	-0.00
Richard Jefferson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	35%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.03
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	0.00	0.06	7	73%	0.01	2	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.3	26.5	15.5	24.0	1.8	27.2	122.8
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +41.4%

DEN +3.6%

DEN +7.0%

SAC -1.5%

SAC -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DEN	NBA	SAC	DEN	NBA
this game	14.8	14.6	14.7	106.1	132.7	107.5
season	15.4	14.7		102.9	111.2
opponent	14.7	14.7		109.9	110.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	16.3	15.3	16.8	11.0	14.8
DEN	15.0	11.9	13.2	18.5	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruno Caboclo	28	26	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-27	28	12.7	15.6	-2.89	17.0	13.7	3.31
Vince Carter	17	19	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-22	18	15.8	14.6	1.15	12.9	15.0	-2.01
Frank Mason	34	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	-22	18	15.6	14.4	1.14	16.0	13.8	2.14
Garrett Temple	41	41	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.18	1	-27	28	14.1	15.3	-1.15	14.6	14.5	0.11
Buddy Hield	57	57	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.19	-1	-25	24	13.6	16.5	-2.96	14.8	14.3	0.44
Willie Cauley-Stein	60	59	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.02	-8	-18	10	14.2	15.8	-1.59	15.3	13.5	1.72
Kosta Koufos	41	41	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.44	-24	-2	-22	16.1	13.9	2.20	13.9	15.0	-1.11
Justin Jackson	57	57	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.28	-19	-7	-12	14.7	15.0	-0.32	14.7	14.3	0.40
Bogdan Bogdanovic	46	47	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.41	-26	0	-26	16.3	13.5	2.89	14.0	15.1	-1.02
De'Aaron Fox	64	64	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.28	-22	-4	-18	14.4	15.6	-1.14	13.8	16.0	-2.14
Zach Randolph	45	45	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.29	-24	-2	-22	16.2	13.7	2.52	13.6	15.4	-1.80

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	59	59	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.50	33	-7	40	13.9	15.6	-1.73	16.2	12.7	3.53
Paul Millsap	47	48	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.49	32	-6	38	13.9	15.2	-1.22	16.4	13.3	3.14
Gary Harris	63	63	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.39	27	-1	28	15.0	13.8	1.24	15.6	13.3	2.29
Jamal Murray	58	57	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.42	27	-1	28	13.8	15.7	-1.86	16.2	13.0	3.21
Will Barton	52	50	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.23	3	23	-20	14.0	15.2	-1.14	14.6	15.1	-0.48
Wilson Chandler	54	54	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.41	23	3	20	13.7	15.7	-2.02	16.4	12.9	3.54
Devin Harris	43	45	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.16	-1	27	-28	15.1	14.2	0.89	13.1	16.3	-3.24
Mason Plumlee	43	42	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.17	-4	30	-34	14.4	14.7	-0.23	14.0	15.5	-1.51
Trey Lyles	38	38	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.19	-5	31	-36	16.0	13.6	2.38	12.6	16.2	-3.61
Richard Jefferson	10	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	25	-24	16.8	14.3	2.48	10.9	15.3	-4.40
Malik Beasley	15	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	30	-34	16.9	14.2	2.71	9.5	15.8	-6.24
Darrell Arthur	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	28	-30	19.0	14.2	4.82	9.7	15.3	-5.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.77,0.73,0.8,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 77, MIA 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.59,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.89,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.7%
GSW 82, MIN 101	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.63,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.84,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%
WAS 76, POR 111	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.7,0.77,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.1%