NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	117		Excitement	7.0 [465]		MVP	Mario Hezonja (ORL): +20.9%
Orlando Magic	104		Comeback	1.3 [1015]		LVP	Nikola Vucevic (ORL): -11.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pascal Siakam	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.11	0.06	0.03	9	78%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.02	-0.01	7	76%	0.14	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
DeMar DeRozan	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	13	57%	0.10	1	-0.03	11	82%	0.00
OG Anunoby	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	3	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	0%	0.00
Fred VanVleet	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.06,0.03,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	-0.01	9	60%	0.14	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Lowry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.09	-0.02	0.04	11	63%	0.09	2	-0.07	5	20%	-0.07
Serge Ibaka	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	8	56%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
CJ Miles	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.02	9	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	6	71%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Norman Powell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Miller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Delon Wright	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Hezonja	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.29,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.13	0.06	-0.02	7	89%	0.26	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.03
Jonathon Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.03	-0.02	8	65%	0.11	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	9	48%	0.03	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.03
Khem Birch	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.02	15	52%	0.07	2	-0.08	3	67%	-0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.03	0.00	3	60%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Rashad Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shelvin Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.04	-0.06	-0.02	10	55%	0.07	4	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01
Wes Iwundu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.02	-0.05	0.05	9	61%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.00	-0.07	0.04	13	54%	-0.02	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	1.8	30.5	14.8	28.3	1.8	27.3	129.0
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +37.2%

TOR +0.8%

ORL -3.1%

TOR +9.6%

TOR +5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ORL	NBA	TOR	ORL	NBA
this game	14.4	15.6	14.7	123.2	107.2	107.5
season	14.6	14.6		112.7	104.2
opponent	14.5	14.8		109.1	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.2	15.0	13.7	14.8	14.4
ORL	15.8	15.0	16.9	14.6	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jakob Poeltl	56	56	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.16	13	0	13	14.5	14.3	0.25	15.2	16.0	-0.85
Fred VanVleet	52	54	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.15	9	4	5	14.6	14.2	0.41	15.0	16.3	-1.34
Pascal Siakam	50	49	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.18	7	6	1	15.0	13.8	1.16	14.8	16.3	-1.50
DeMar DeRozan	67	68	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.06	11	2	9	14.3	14.8	-0.50	16.0	14.4	1.63
Kyle Lowry	66	67	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.07	15	-2	17	14.3	14.8	-0.47	15.9	14.9	0.95
OG Anunoby	21	22	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.09	10	3	7	14.2	14.5	-0.31	15.5	15.6	-0.01
CJ Miles	30	31	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.23	-4	17	-21	14.9	14.2	0.73	14.9	15.9	-1.01
Serge Ibaka	45	48	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.06	6	7	-1	13.8	15.0	-1.16	16.3	14.8	1.50
Delon Wright	25	25	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	12	-11	15.5	14.0	1.48	15.4	15.6	-0.21
Malcolm Miller	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	19.0	14.4	4.62	0.0	15.6	-15.56
Jonas Valanciunas	39	41	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.05	0	13	-13	14.3	14.5	-0.25	16.0	15.2	0.85
Norman Powell	23	24	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.00	-3	16	-19	13.0	14.9	-1.83	15.7	15.5	0.26

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bismack Biyombo	35	33	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.07	7	-20	27	16.1	15.3	0.78	15.6	13.8	1.80
Rashad Vaughn	27	26	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-14	15	15.6	15.6	-0.00	15.7	14.0	1.74
Mario Hezonja	41	39	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.11	4	-17	21	14.0	16.7	-2.61	14.5	14.4	0.09
Wes Iwundu	38	36	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.02	1	-14	15	15.8	15.4	0.38	15.0	14.1	0.92
Khem Birch	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-12	11	12.0	15.6	-3.63	11.0	14.5	-3.51
Shelvin Mack	42	40	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-16	19	15.7	15.5	0.19	14.9	14.1	0.85
Aaron Gordon	62	62	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	-1	-11	15.9	15.0	0.83	14.3	14.7	-0.41
Jonathon Simmons	57	57	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.07	-13	0	-13	15.8	15.2	0.56	14.1	14.9	-0.73
Evan Fournier	61	60	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.12	-17	4	-21	16.0	14.8	1.19	14.1	14.9	-0.81
D.J. Augustin	60	60	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.08	-19	6	-25	15.4	15.8	-0.45	13.9	15.3	-1.44
Nikola Vucevic	60	60	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.08	-19	6	-25	15.4	15.8	-0.45	13.9	15.3	-1.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.37,0.26,0.25,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.47,0.45,0.21,0.22,0.04,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 101, POR 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.39,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.37,0.45,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.27,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0	92.9%
PHX 110, CHA 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.17,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0	92.4%
CHA 108, ORL 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.55,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.1,0.03,0.03,0,0,0	92.4%